Contra trend purchase @ 3.06 with a tight stop... possible double bottom vs. ~ 5/30/14 lows ~ $3... A break here will likely target the 10/24/2008 low @ 2.22... looking for a short term bounce.
On Friday the NAZ and S&P closed down while the DOW closed up. The DOW reached the upper trend line of a channel per the following highs 12/31/13, 7/16/14. The lower trend line is derived from the ~2/5/14 and 8/7/14 session lows. The NAZ shares a similar pattern where prices have neared the upper channel trend-line, while the S&P has fallen short of reaching its respective upper boundary. Though the indices may hint of a sell-off (Candlestick, Volume, RSI, etc.) they are currently maintaining a strong uptrend however provided that the channel formation is valid a correction targeting the lower boundaries may be imminent.
The trend line has officially broken intra-day - further confirmation is dependent on today's close. With a few exceptions, hedging i.e. trading with coverage is advisable considering the volatility of this security.
The 50 EMA may appear solid per: 3/21/14 break, 4/22/14 resist, 5/20/14 break-out, ~ 7/24/14 to 8/6/14 support but during the ~7/24/14 to 8/6/14 support period stock prices pierced the 50 EMA however found support with precision at the above-mentioned trend line thereby buoying it's credence. Although prices may find support at the 50 EMA range, it's more likely that a trend line break (the real line in the sand) will be the actual pre-curser to the correction and likely prove the 50 EMA a non-significant indicator.
NFLX is on the trend line created by the following daily lows: 4/28/14, 5/8/14, 8/1/14, 8/6/14. If it cannot hold this trend, next stop will be the 200 day MA which is over 50 points lower at about 405. RSI vs. recent highs diverge favoring an inevitable correction.
Bought a HPQ September 35.5 straddle @ 2.2 - A positive or negative surprise should result in a widening price ---- Exits: may sell one leg independently, ideally to cover the entire straddle debit thereby yielding zero net cost on the remaining leg. Near term sideways price action = losing trade = probably immediate exit as such.
The DJIA 200 day SMA bolstered its credibility on August 7th 2014 ~ 16,350 and now rally's toward the recent high's of July 31st 2014 ~ 17,150. In the near term; a breakout into new high territory could indicate a continuation of the long term uptrend while a failure to advance will likely lead index prices downward to retest the 200 day SMA.
As stated in earlier posts the DOW breached significant support on 7/31/14 and is now paused at its respective 200 day M/A while the NAZ and S&P lag short of their own respective 200 day moving averages. A likely resolution at this juncture is a DOW corrective continuation that targets a long term uptrend that began its development in the fall of 2011, hence a DOW NT target of approximately 15800. Consequently the lagging NAZ and S&P should find support at their respective 200 day MA's. If such price action unfolds it's highly probably that the US equity markets have achieved long terms highs a/o July 2014 and will not revisit such price ranges for an extended period of time.
Estimated near term targets: DOW ~ 16300, NAZ 4191, S&P 1870. If the current sell-off is a correction within a long term uptrend then prices should find support near their respective 200 day M/A's and then subsequently rise to resume their uptrends however if the resumptions do not occur then the US equity markets are likely experiencing an official trend reversal. The depth and time of the correction must be evaluated in addition to it's retracement.
Per above; the DIA officially broke and closed below an uptrend line dating back to February 2014. If the line is valid and price action abides the DIA will experience a pull-back and a likely target of the 200 day M/A. A divergence of US equities vs. the USD/JPY occurred as the pairing advanced with a possibility of resolving a medium term consolidation pattern that began to develop late last year.
Follow UP: The 'break' happened today 7-28-14, just waiting for a confirmation close below the line. Take a close look at the DIA chart (NAZ & S&P too are essentially the same) and draw a trend line at the lows per the dates stated in this original message and you will see.
Once again the markets are on the precipice of a rising wedge formation which began in February 2014. If you draw a trend line using the following session lows: DIA - 2/4/14, 4/11/14, 5/20/14, 7/10/14 you will clearly see the lower line. A 'break' with a confirmation close below this line could indicate the beginning of the next correction while a bounce off the line will likely raise the DOW to new highs.
Thanks, I'll check the SPY board and yes the market technicals are bullish and it's outright stupid to fight the trend. GL.
No clue who PUD is but he made this board worth looking at - As for the markets - they're a disaster and the only question is when will house of cards fall?