USD/JPY (Dollar/Yen) support of ~ 110.65 broke and is currently at 110.44. This is the 4th time in 2016 for this pair to challenge this price zone. Bounce or break verdict is still out but now favors a break. Watching for significant follow through. Not much support on the downside...
The Sovereign Investor: March 31st 2016 by JL Yastine
"Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.
Billionaire Carl Icahn, for example, recently raised a red flag on a national broadcast when he declared, “The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”
And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”
Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.
Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to “Sell Everything” because “in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.” ...
It bounced off 111 three times, Feb 10, Feb 23, March 16th, and it's there again today. Definitely stuck in a range though I suspect it'll eventually go down since that's the direction of the longer term trend.
TOKYO, April 1- Japanese stocks tumbled to a 1- month low on Friday after the Bank of Japan's quarterly corporate survey showed business sentiment among large manufacturers sank to its lowest level in nearly three years, sapping risk appetite and weighing down stocks across the board. The Nikkei share average shed 3.6 percent to end the day at 16,164.16,....
Trump, "We’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” he said, adding that the official jobless figure is "statistically devised to make politicians — and in particular presidents — look good.... it’s a terrible time right now to invest in the stock market.
This would become even more apparent if/when global markets crash while the US markets hold their ground.
Thank you! Here's some additional abridged information that I had trouble loading on this message board regarding wave 5 which I believe is essentially what you're referring to... BTW: The 5 wave finale reminds me of the term, "Odd Lot Traders'.
Wave 5 is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive/negative and everyone is bullish/bearish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy/sell.
US indices now at key Fibonacci retracement levels per the 2015 highs to the 2016 lows; SPX ~ 78.6%, NAZ ~62%, SPX ~78.6. Some Elliot wave technicians speculate that the aggressive advance from Februrary 11th 2016 to today is a corrective WAVE 2 and the impulse WAVE 3 is about to commence. Below is some Information on Elliot Waves and their characteristics. This might be really boring for some of you;
Wave 1 is rarely obvious at its inception. Traders believe previous trend is still strongly in force and it's usually considered as correction. Volume might increase a bit as move progressing, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts. Occasionally it could take structure of leading diagonal.
Wave 2 corrects wave one and it could never extend beyond the start point of wave 1. In most cases it does not retrace more than 61.8 % or 76.4% of wave 1. It usually takes form of Zig Zag, Flat or Double Three and it could never be a Triangle. Volume should be lower during Wave 2 than during wave 1.
Wave 3 is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. Price is progressing quickly, corrections are short -lived and shallow. By wave 3 midpoint the crowd will often join the new trend. Wave 3 must exceed at leas 1.618 fib extension of wave 1 and could go up to 2.618 fib ext or more. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest one.
Wave 4 is typically clearly corrective. Price could do sideways for an extended period and typically retraces less than 38.2 %, usually 23.6% of wave 3. Fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the case of a diagonal. It often takes structure of flat, triangle or irregular correction. At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we don't label a wave 4 if it passes 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 (unless a diagonal)
Wave 5 is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone
The majority of posts on this site are grammatically incorrect. It's the message that matters... Agreed pope, seems the upside potential is limited but you can never know for sure.
Not everyone is the same but this happens to be my experience and I know others that share similar ones. I was not trying to be discouraging but honest from my perspective. Your experience/path along with other successful day traders could be completely different... Good luck!
Seems the FED and the forces that be 'are all powerful; but as a technician it's difficult not to scale into some shorts right now. The Markets have reached important key levels while some indicators are diverging. Basically means a correction is due although a break out into all time highs no longer seems impossible with all the manipulation that's happening these days. It's ridiculous but it is what it is...
A top technician is calling for a reversal now or within a week for US equities - bottom line equities are currently moving up and the dollar down. Watching for a reversal pattern e.g. doji, bearish engulfing, etc. on the daily charts as a possible signal for the coming roll over. A trend break of the steep ascent from Feb 11 will add further confirmation --- none of which have occurred.
Mohamed El Erian called for a possible 10% correction within the next couple months. So by the end of May the DJX could drop 1750 points and the S&P would drop about 200 points to 1850. If this happens at 10% the markets will again re challenge the lows from January/February of this year; the fear factor is going to be through the roof.
Yes it's logical, but the stock market isn't. When everything points to a crash probably means a big rally coming...
Could be stock buy backs and PPT. The repetition of turning a red market green is getting old and seems unsustainable.