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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

tony.paganini 68 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Mar 12, 2010
  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Feb 20, 2016 7:44 AM Flag

    This video might be worth your time especially if you're familiar with Elliot waves. This technician is expecting a near term sell-off that will likely break the recent lows (~1810). Search youtube title, "Important US Dollar Break Soon! GOLD-SILVER-S&P500-USDX (Basically the recent drop was a relatively small short term wave 3 impulse and the rally per last week was/is a corrective wave 4 which will lead to a short term completion wave 5 down. After which per the longer term perspective the Wave 2 (within a B-C corrective movement) will ensue; this is a counter trend retracement (head fake). Once complete a catastrophic wave 3 lies ahead which will ultimately target (on the 5th completion wave down) five hundred.) Probably sounds complicated (it does to me), but the video explains it very well. Cheers!

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Feb 20, 2016 7:29 AM Flag

    This video might be worth your time especially if you're familiar with Elliot waves. This technician is expecting a near term sell-off that will likely break the recent lows. On youtube titled, "Important US Dollar Break Soon! GOLD-SILVER-S&P500-USDX

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Feb 19, 2016 4:14 AM Flag

    I checked 1987, 2000, 2008. The corrective durations were roughly; 1987 ~ 2 months (35%), 2000 ~ 2+ years (50%), 2008 ~ 1 year 3 mo (58%). I don't think anyone knows how this will unfold but without even considering catastrophe my research points to a faster decline vs. drawn out.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Feb 19, 2016 3:14 AM Flag

    You're welcome... I find the numbers cumbersome and would rather explain viewpoints using charts. The info in that post would be very easy to observe and understand. Hopefully no on else is turned off by the numbers.

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Feb 18, 2016 4:55 AM Flag

    Hi! Hopefully no one finds these numbers intimidating, they're simple, just use your charts.... Anyway based on the distance between 12/29/15 high of 207.79 and the 1/20/16 low of 181.02 the Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows; 23.6% ~ 187, 38.2% ~ 191, 50 % ~ 194, 61.8% ~ 197.50, 78.6% 202. There's an upside gap fill at ~ 203.75 per 12/31/2015 close of 203.87 to the 1/5/16 session high at 201.03. This upside gap could be a significant turnaround target if SPY has legs. Many experts are convinced that US equities have topped; if this is true the aggressive up move in the past four trading sessions + (2/11/16, 2/12/16, 2/16/16, & 2/27/16 +?) is a retracement prior to the next leg down. Regarding downside support; the line in the sand seems quite clear per the following lows; 8/24/2015 @ 182.40, 1/20/2016 @ 181.02, and 2/11/2016 @ 181.09. What are shorts looking for? Failure to make new highs, reversals at key price levels, and an official confirmation via markets breaking and closing below support levels. If this happens a 1987 style crash would not be surprising... Unfortunately we don't know if or how this will unfold but such information would be worth a fortune. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Collapse is here...

    by pranapeter Feb 8, 2016 2:48 PM
    tony.paganini tony.paganini Feb 17, 2016 6:51 AM Flag

    Hey Prana your comment wasn't deleted. There's a lot of talk about the coming collapse but the charts speak volumes and it seems a stock market crash is just around the corner - some are claiming 2016 will be the year the bubble bursts. (One Someone = Bo Polny.) Good Luck!

  • tony.paganini tony.paganini Feb 17, 2016 6:19 AM Flag

    Not concerned with the source of anyones words but whether or not the information helps... Seems he's pointing out the obvious; markets are correlated, black box trading is prevalent, and volatility will be in vogue not only as a hedge but a tremendous speculative trading opportunity. If the markets are in a distribution phase derivatives such as UVXY, VIXM, VIXY, VXX, VXZ, Velocity Funds, Ultra Pro's, etc... ETF's that trade at multiples of their source could yield astronomical returns e.g. NUGT, (Dixexion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x) and UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term) - look at the charts 300 - 400% gains within days and the list goes on. Many such ETF's are also optionable meaning investors can leverage leveraged funds. All of the VIX derivatives above are optionable and of course so is the VIX which differs as it cannot be exercised/settled via stock.

  • tony.paganini by tony.paganini Feb 12, 2016 8:55 AM Flag

    Anyone know where management is? The precious metals markets are brewing and SGCP needs leadership to come out of hiding.

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