I agree. This a bear market rally in the oil industry. Some of the best rallys are in a bear market.
I don't want to buy rigs at $0.40 on the $1. I want positive cash flow after debt payment. EBITDA is of no interest. PACD will not be sold, so the only value is determining future earnings and cash flows. Long term PACD is a solid company with solid mgmt. great reputation, high spec rigs in the UDW space.
Then you are trader and not investor. That is risk you take. PSEC is poor trading company.
The company is designed to return dividends to long term shareholders over time. I sold 95% of my PSEC since I don't trust mgmt. as I once did.
Analysts cannot defend a lawsuit. Arista will have the lawsuit as an overhang until the suit is settled.
The company will do well as it always has in the market. The stock will stay within a trading range IMO.
If you need to ask then you shouldn't buy options, especially if you asking on a public board with majority of posters who have little credibility or transparency.
You guys are foolish traders talking about your skill and long term investing skills.
This company will not fold. If you think it will then provide detailed support for your thesis. Otherwise you and synch are just talk no analysis.
I'm not waiting on the dividend. This is capital appreciation play from the bottom. As dividend players migrate out value players will buy-in starting in 1st qtr. 2015. I'm familiar with crude and this CEO. The company is well positioned now to weather the next 2 years. D/E is 100 and will decrease as suspended dividend pays down debt. You don't present any specific knowledge of the offshore drilling market or an understanding of European stocks. Why you would say contracts are meaningless in a market valued by projected firm contract revenue demonstrates your ignorance of offshore. This is cyclical industry that is hitting near bottom in 90 day period that has firm revenue through 2016.
The revenue and expenses are clearly set and can only go up by the company closing new contracts for new builds. They have 18-24 months to close those agreements. Until you demonstrate specific knowledge of this industry your generalized statements are meaningless.
The dividend play in this industry is SDLP, but you would probably argue against that given your limited knowledge of this industry and the financial structure.
They are shifting to a software NFV model to replace hardware. While the margins are high in software, the actual revenue number decreases substantially. The major service providers like VZN are where they want to get huge revenue and they are betting big money they can take share from Cisco and Juniper in that space. I'm skeptical, especially with such a long sell cycle. The expense side, the dividends and the buy backs are all positive. The revenue is key. If they don't grow this year then they will be discounted as a player in IP. I see better opportunities.
Yes I'm naive to think JF will change his pattern of operating his companies. How familiar are you with ownership structure of SDRL? How familiar are you with European model of treating dividends? Do you know the contract structure for SDRL for the next 2 years with projected cash flows? How long have you been investing with offshore oil companies? This is not a US REIT or holding company like ACAS.
SDRL is not a US company. They grew because of debt. They have started to fix the balance sheet with D/E of 100 today. The dividend cut will be used to pay down debt. As a European company they will bring back the dividend in 24-36 months. Europeans treat dividends much differently than US. When offshore drilling comes back the debt and dividends will follow in this company.
This is rotation of dividend investors out of a stock that suspended dividends exacerbated by a poor market outlook. The selling is expected. The value investors will come into SDRL in January. Until then the trend will be down.
BRCD has flat IP product revenues. That is the future of the business. SAN is a great cash cow, but no one highly values technology companies with no growth. The EPS growth is all based on stock buy backs. That will only go so far. 2015 is the year BRCD must increase revenue growth substantially or this will be a $6 stock again. Then someone may acquire them for the cash cow.
BRCD is being setup for buyout, but not by EMC. IBM won't buy a hardware company. Oracle needs a network play. The CEO has a relationship with Larry Ellison from selling his prior failing startup to Oracle. Ellison told Carney to go clean up Brocade so Oracle could buy the company. Brocade is a cash cow in the SAN business and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. The company must gain traction in the emerging SDN space as well as increase market share in the IP networking space. The SAN reps are clueless about anything other than SAN and OEM "taking orders" business. The IP networking group is very small and mostly clueless about data centers where SDN will have its day. In order to increase profits by lowering expenses Carney disbanded the high-end networking team that was selling the flagship data center IP fabric products. The sales should be $300M by now for the IP Fabric products, but I heard they stalled out in the mid $100s. Right now the SDN future story is great, the numbers look better because Carney cut staff overall and the SAN business is growing at 4% to 5% annually (nothing to write home about.) It was not hard to do since prior country club mgmt. had given the market so little to go on that the price of the stock could only go up as long as the company showed some direction once Carney took over. Consequently, the market is buying the stock "on the come", the belief that good things will come just like cards in a poker game. If you are a holder of BRCD stock I would stay with it and ride it for awhile longer. The buy-out may happen and you will be rewarded. However, if they miss revenue numbers even slightly then dump the stock as that is the predictor of the future of Brocade. In other words, can Brocade make the transition to become a real threat in the IP industry with IP software networking and take real market share from Cisco and Juniper? If so the stock will surge. If not the stock will languish. The jury is still out.
They decided only to pay dividends to investors who read the quarterly report, listen to the conference call, and then check the election box to receive the dividend. You will need to make sure you follow the directions closely.
I did not say a takeunder....buying shares at under market price. SDRL could offer more than market price which would be in the interest of SDRL and NADL as well as JF if he can purchase at BV or slightly less.
SDRL will buy remaining stock is does not own unless Roseneft deal materializes. Either way the company will sell for $4 per share...around book value.
NADL is an easy buyout for JF or for SDRL. It makes sense at these numbers even if they double the PPS NADL can be bought at book. Most investors on this board would lose significantly. The cost for outstanding float is $300M at just over $4 per share.