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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

tony_naples 140 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Aug 13, 2003
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  • Reply to


    by gal1918 4 hours ago
    tony_naples tony_naples 4 hours ago Flag

    i need to sell my hedging put still. will see how n[tomorrow works

  • Reply to

    UBNT compounding machine

    by tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 10:25 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    I bought once at for a day trade and turned profit of $2 per share.
    I bought on downturn at $34 and sold recently at $43 and change.
    I bought back in at $38 for a trade and did not sell when I had decent profit after 1 day. Now holding.
    My problem with the stock is the thin float. That is what provides the volatility.
    The numbers are compelling for long term and the buybacks are positive as well as the dividend announced today. I expect the dividend to grow 10% annually especially since Pera owns so many shares. We may have short term rise because of dividend now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why SDRL is going to $20

    by richardleeds Sep 30, 2014 2:02 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Your overall thesis is generally correct. Oil prices will remain depressed for quite sometime, and drillers are not immune to world demand. However you failed to answer any of my specific questions. You also failed to take into consideration that bifurcation in the demand for oil rigs separates the low spec inventory (RIG) from the high spec inventory (SDRL). Day rates have not been dropping in ultra deep underwater drilling, SDRL specialty and market focus. You have failed to account for warm and cold stacking in the reduction in rig inventory. You believe Canada and US will fill the gap in world demand when US shale accounts for very low percentage of US demand. You fail to account for the extremely poor economics in shale oil i.e. the sweet spots are being exhausted and the industry must spend and drill at 3X the rate to maintain same production. Demand is slowing but at an overall level it is still increasing YoY. Wallstreet is fickle. They hate the stock today and will love it tomorrow. SDRL is 30% off its high while earnings are expected to at a minimum stay flat and may in all likelihood increase over the next 12-24 months.
    The point is your statements are macro in nature without any consideration for the fundamentals of the SDRL operating the UDW market where they are #1 in the market. You have made no consideration for the money raised by SDLP that will in all likelihood be used to by rigs from SDRL making the debt/equity ratio much better. Additionally the largest stockholder in SDRL recently purchased several million more.
    You may very well be correct in your statements about the resulting and continued PPS in SDR, but that is no proof that your thesis is correct given the fact you have presented only one side of the view.

  • Reply to

    UBNT compounding machine

    by tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 10:25 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    I guess it depends when you bought the stock.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    We are green!!!!

    by rogerclaraw Sep 30, 2014 3:22 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    IMO SDRL is bottoming. The other stocks in deepwater drilling including RIG are down 2.5% or more today. SDRL is showing defiance and lower volumes on the downside. A few more days will tell.

  • Reply to

    Why SDRL is going to $20

    by richardleeds Sep 30, 2014 2:02 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    1. How many rigs will be cold stacked in 2015 -2016?
    2. How many rigs will be warm-stacked in 2015-2016?
    3. Will the rig count absolutely grow 25% or do some orders run the risk on cancellation?
    4. Which generation of deep water drilling will be in demand in 2016-2017? How does generation affect utilization in various part of the world? i.e. Artic, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Brazil, Offshore Nigeria, North Sea?
    5. What is the largest most recent find in deep water drilling? Which company owns the rig that did the drilling?
    6. Which rig company has the highest percentage rig utilization through 2016?
    7. How is the drilling industry and the PPS of publicly traded shares affected by the price of oil?
    8. Why is the sky falling?

  • tony_naples by tony_naples Sep 30, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    UBNT is growing revenues and earnings consistently. ROE is extremely high given the debt. However, ROA is also extremely high. UBNT is reinvesting earnings in both growing the company and stock buybacks. Over the long term UBNT is easily a 20% compounded return. At a PE of 19 the stock is undervalued. As a long term holder the price at low to mid 30's does not matter. UBNT is a great buy. If you are a trader for short to mid term duration 1 month up to 6 months UBNT is a good buy now that should return 15% to 30%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tony_naples tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    How is that short working for you now?

  • Reply to

    GS downgrade of SDRL

    by rogers2308 Sep 26, 2014 11:23 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    I am long. GS can move markets, but don't trust them unless they are my side of IPO.
    I would not be surprised if we end down a bit today. actually better if we end at or near yesterday close than big up day.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Up Up And

    by vincent90157 Sep 26, 2014 10:48 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Do you think the action is primarily window dressing that brought the stock down?

  • tony_naples by tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    This stock was a sliver so the run up was expected. Time to get out before the stock get back to $20. Take your profits and wait for another opportunity. I am not short, but this is micro cap thinly traded stock.

  • Reply to

    Up Up And

    by vincent90157 Sep 26, 2014 10:48 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    1 day a trend does not make. Let's give it a few days.

  • tony_naples by tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Some think it is justified.
    I myself think the punishment is overdone, but I'm not the one with the big stick.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    5 Million Float

    by akmersil Sep 26, 2014 8:32 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 26, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    poor assumption.

  • tony_naples tony_naples Sep 25, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    25% to 33% drop...I find that hard tom believe. The stock has a floor of 1.2X book for BRK to buy back shares. The company is decentralized in mgmt of ALL the operating companies. Geico and BNSF are extremly well run. The 4 major stocks that make up most of the invesmtent portfolio, KO, WFC, etc would stay in portfolio. BRK has 2 sharp executives who are now making their own investment decisions on the investment side.
    Losing Warren would be a great loss, but not catastrophic to the organization. I suggest you do some research by reading Buffets letters to shareholders that explain investment philosophy, the advantage of float, valuing the company on growth in book value, etc...
    Then when others make comment about the downside of BRK you can respond from knowledge.
    As an added thought if you really think losing Buffet is so great a risk, I suggest you look at MKL also known as a "Baby Berkshire". Operates and invests much the same. Is much smaller. Head of investments is 52.

  • tony_naples tony_naples Sep 25, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Owning BRK-B is better to me than owning the 4 stocks for many reasons. do some research and read articles on Seeking Alpha about BRK to get some insight into business model.
    Today is good day to swap as entry point into BRK. Your 4 stocks are down less than 1% on average. BRK-B is down 1.28% today and 3.5% off its recent $142 high. That is a good trade. Keep in mind BRK does not pay divy if that is important to you.

  • tony_naples by tony_naples Sep 25, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    IOS issue is quickly fixed.
    Bendable is overblown. Users will adjust and buy a case or put the phone in different place i.e front pocket, good case to protect against bend, etc...
    These are minor issues in the big picture, exacerbated by media attention, down day in market and traders taking stock down to get cheap shares from weak hands.
    If you believe in the long term story, stock buyback, high dividend, low valuation for increasing growth then today is an opportunity to buy shares on sale. By end of year you will see $120 PPS which is more than 22% ROI. I'm selling Oct 95 puts and buying Dec 105 calls with the premium. I will gladly own the shares weak hands are willing to sell me through my puts if stock continues downward.

  • Reply to

    FEYE and PANW market caps equal CYBR at $90+

    by bomber1882 Sep 25, 2014 9:24 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 25, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    CYBR has much less revenue than FEYE or PANW.How can you justify the price and value

  • Reply to

    If you like high divy

    by tony_naples Sep 24, 2014 9:51 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 24, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    My understanding is that Wilhunter is under contract through November 2015 to Hess at a rate of $385K per day until it goes into the yard. Great rate for an old rig purchased 30% on the dollar. It is currently in workover which means it is earning dayrate. I do not know if the rate is reduced because of workover Usually workover does not typically exceed 30 days.

  • Reply to

    wells fargo price targe on sdrl

    by tokunorisan Sep 23, 2014 6:33 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples Sep 24, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    I am long the stock. The puts are insurance in the short term.

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