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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

tony_naples 14 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Aug 13, 2003
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  • The reverse split does not seem reflected in the yahoo numbers from Morningstar. I'm calculating 12.35M shares now.

  • Reply to

    MERU..... send lawyers, guns and money

    by businessunfinished May 27, 2015 12:28 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 27, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    MERU technology is #$%$. Always was. always will be.

  • Reply to

    GILD's BOA presentation.

    by wbart21 May 26, 2015 2:14 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 26, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Do you have link to the slide deck? Cannot find on GILD site.

  • Reply to

    J & J and Achillion

    by jimmythegreek137 May 21, 2015 5:58 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 22, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    JNJ is studying their own nucleotide, AL-335 now. They have preliminary results that most likely were positive indicating it would be a great fit with ACH 3102, a best in class drug thus far for release in 2018.
    MRK has better results than GILD on Genotype 3 with shorter duration. GILD is not seeing positive results with Genotype 3 on shorter duration.

  • Reply to

    J & J and Achillion

    by jimmythegreek137 May 21, 2015 5:58 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 22, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    I am long GILD. I agree there is cause for concern in 2018. JNJ is the premier pharma and they have their own HCV pipeline they can blend with ACHN. Their goal is provide a Pangenotopic product by 2018 with a 3 drug combo. I would not dismiss them as a future viable threat.
    In the meantime GILD will be collecting hoards of cash, building their reputation as the go to company for HCV just as they have in HIV. Additionally GILD will not be standing still developing their own 3 drug combo, 1 pill drug that will be address the Pangeo market.
    However it is a mistake for any GILD investor to completely dismiss JNJ with ACHN.
    I am not long ACHN, but will consider an investment as they proceed and certainly if their PPS falls in to low $8s on no specific science news.

  • Reply to

    I Bought More

    by kwantung07 May 20, 2015 12:16 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 21, 2015 8:05 AM Flag

    Point made on EPS as long as you factor in the increase in EPS for the milestone payments and the added revenue/EPS that comes to ACHN from the royalty payments on a NPV basis. ACHN was diluted on the secondary earlier in the year, but the cash provided more runway and a better negotiating position for the company. Looking at one measure along provides little perspective on the business as a whole.
    I did make one mistake in valuation perspective. I was thinking of financial companies where secondary offerings over current Book value are viewed as accretive. Wrong perspective. Biotech especially small are primarily valued on Price to Sales

  • Reply to

    Be Wary of Larry Blatt

    by kwantung07 May 20, 2015 9:47 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 20, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    Kwan,
    Do you really believe JNJ would make such an investment to steal proprietary technology? At the least you are questioning ACHN's ability to write a contract that protects its assets that would leave them exposed.
    IMO, ACHN is a highly focused company that has developed 2 products ACH-3102 and ACH 3422 that would work well with JNJ's Olysio.The pipeline and the discovery platform are strong assets that in time could prove to be exceelent assets for JNJ to acquire. Given theACHN discovery platform and the time it takes to develop the products as a result of the platform use, I don't see how JNJ could copy those assets in a timely manner let alone the liability it would face if such an event were to occur.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I Bought More

    by kwantung07 May 20, 2015 12:16 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 20, 2015 11:10 PM Flag

    I'm not a current owner of ACHN, but I fail to understand your dilution comment. JNJ bought in at $12+, 20% over market price at time, and brings huge value to the table for ACHN. The stock is down because ACHN price was climbing on expectation of complete acquisition. That thesis is now over so time to sell for those traders. I hope ACHN goes down further until it reaches a compelling sale price that I find irresistible.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What's happening?

    by kwantung07 May 18, 2015 11:36 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 20, 2015 10:50 PM Flag

    Why would you consider ACHN a better buy than GILD? GILD currently owns the HIV and the HCV markets. They are collecting huge hoards of cash while others (MRK, JNJ, ABBVIE (DEAD) are working to catch up for a piece of the market. GILD is not standing still waiting either...They are developing in-house combo for pan-geo solution. Additionally they get to use the cash to pay divy, buyback shares and make small dollar acquisitions for oncology that could prove to pay off big-time. On top of all that GILD has an oncology pipeline that is diverse with several trials on-going. ACHN could be 4X today's price in 3-5 years if all goes as planned. GILD has better risk/reward ratio.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Another great quarter for Markel

    by doobanator May 6, 2015 5:09 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples May 6, 2015 11:18 PM Flag

    That combined ratio is not sustainable and is based on restating reserves from prior quarters, which is most likely a result of offloading the asbestos risk. I like the company though and think it was a great qtr. for a great perfectly boring company. They are fairly valued today and compelling buy if you expect next qtr. BV to grow by 4%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 3

    by coatesk95 Apr 24, 2015 6:57 PM
    tony_naples tony_naples Apr 25, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    ACHN is going to arrive at the party after everyone has a partner. Everyday the value of ACHN decreases as the market and major competitors move on.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • tony_naples tony_naples Mar 2, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    ARUN and UBNT do not compete. ARUN is an enterprise secure mobility play. UBNT is low-end, very low cost networking for the masses and INTL low-end service providers.
    Buying back stock at a low price is the time to buy if you believe in the business.
    UBNT is profitable and cash flow positive. Their challenge is that most of their sales are in foreign currency which is hurt by the increase in the U.S. dollar.
    If you have a 3-5 year horizon it is clear that UBNT is good buy. It has increased just under 25% from its low of $26.

  • Reply to

    What now?

    by henry710222 Mar 2, 2015 8:59 AM
    tony_naples tony_naples Mar 2, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Take the cash and reinvest elsewhere. Good deal for HP since they get a mobility leader and an intact IP sales force. Dell OEM deal just died! Dell will need to look elsewhere.

  • tony_naples by tony_naples Mar 2, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    I bought Google as a long term investment being one of my core holdings. Earlier this year I sold 1/2 my position because I wanted to free up cash. My mistake was choosing GOOG and not some other holding that was not a core holding.

    Sentiment: Hold

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