They are positioned for multiple indications. When you have the first approval secondary trials are layups. That is the glass half full theory . rose colored glasses. If they get the first fda approval this turns into a boulder cascading to 10 in 2 years. I am just cautious so i will say 5-6 in 12 months. 6-8 in 24 months. Conservative . I'll sell 20% at 5 20% at 6. 20% 7 20% 8. Rest hold.
It works just like humara . they are filling in the small in the small indications . 3 candidates =5yr pt of $17. Roi is back up the truck quality. The old xoma is not the new xoma. I would buy at these levels
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So if you have ba shitz of the eyes and don't have any emancipations you could be hanging around for a while waiting for an exuburation proclamation.
I am concerned if Humira works better than GMAP and ABBV jumps into indicatoin xoma is in. I would be estatic if GMAP works better or equally as good as humira because humira has had the largest indicaiton increases.
People an exacerbation is a negative event that increases the severity of a disease or its signs and symptoms. Lets play a game the longer it takes the better the drug works. Listen to the webcast the only part you should listen to is at 5.50 to 6:20. 50% of the exacerbation occur in the early part of the trial. why does that happen because i ventrure to say that over 75% of the GMAP Patients show stable or complete reversal with nearly no exacerbation .That leaves all the exasb. taking place from placebo. So if you are on the trial and you draw placebo it sucks for you. Why because there are other parts of the body that can be affected as well. Eye pain and losing your vision causes you to rush to get treatment . Hence why they allow rescue rx. It is a beech of a trial to complete but all indications are this works. Listen to them drop the word Humara. I lauged at the clapping at the end sounded like 3 people . OK you are a numbskull if you sell now . When they get the first approval this will be a pin ball on the climb resistance will be shattered. Note Humara and GMAP are in the same category. Xoma is going for the eye. Look at Vanda the blind sleep drug. The price target for me is in line with VNDA's 10-15 in next 12-18 months. That is worth hanging out . I hung around for CLDX and CRIS and XON to start shaking and they all did. XOMA is the last one of my risky plays in the gate. .
to address your concerns on the protocol breach I think the data was fine in July but the fact that they allowed rescue medicine at specified dosage was pretty balzsy. So my guess is there was one center or one doctor who fed up and misread the protocol. That is the glass half full view i have. Glass half empty would be that they trial was a dud and they will announce that the trial didnt fail but that it was designed with a flaw to allow rescue medicine. They would say they are going to go forward with the US trial on their own . Note the US trial was started stating that they would use the servier data if possible and that they would use this trial to supplment sumbission to FDA if need be. My gut says the shorts are making a killing on this . And when that spicket starts to slow down that is when the tide turns. I need 4.50 to be back in green . I can guarntee we will see 4.00 by june. that is all i am willing to call right now. Its a safe call so buying at these levels is a decent idea. the volume is wicked high. My thought is they have some things in development. something that will make this a 10 dollar stock Gmap is the cover charge .
To have a better chance of predicting the future we must learn about history. Not the history of xoma but of Kerx. First trial failed that wet first . Second trial succeeded.. Xoma paid the piper pumped it to 9 and released the bad data on the erosive osteoarthritis PII. Xoma has recieved a joint approval before regardless of the eventual events surrounding that first approval they recieved it. The PPS makes me think it will move but after earnings release . think it touches 2.90 ad people will freak that is when the saturate the market buyers with good news. Its a chess board the pawn is a pawn and the king will always live in a castle whil others do his dirty work.. I just jumped out of CRIS probably too early i cant see that run going on. TRVN looking good XON hot . CLDX risky. Xoma filthy good in 15
this one gives me the gold nugget feeling boys haha . 50 dollars in 10 years. As long as some cheese whiz doesnt scoop the whole company up for 12 or 13 now knowing what she is worth long ter.
Orcl sell now thank me later. Enron and AOL mixed into one. Micros acquisition is sliower than expectd. Orcl value is derived from cheap labor over seas and off shore accounts that are not taxed. Asset ofbor contain 30% goodwill. Never once in. History has a company attempted such a business model of aquisitiins to fuel all growth. Timber sell
Sentiment: Strong Sell