The key is sgyp has no partner and has negative equity. They are riskier due to their insolvency. Cfo left his prior company then went bankrupt a few years latr. Sgyp They cannot scale a sales force and manufacture drug eith their balance sheet. They becomw like mankind if no partner or acquisition occurs. Long way to january. That being said it gets approved . yet approval and roi for investors are two entirelg different things
I have ot reallh been involved in research of sgyp for sometime . tbank you for providing me the cliff notes view. Yiu guys should check out adma. That is an interesting p3 imo undervalued and strong results point to fda approval. Not earth shattering mkt cap but you get in where you fit in . sgyp and adma remind me of an aqusiton stock i made a nice 100% reruennon astx.
Thanks sounds like they have some decsnt pre clinical activity in this developmental product. Althouhh like you also alluded to no one is realky in a hurry for reasons we can only speculate on.
SCMP seems to have taken a path that I could envision SGYP taking. a 12 dollar price target in 5 years is not out of the question . It is not a fair price to acquire the company i think 7 -8 dollars is likely to be offered on FDA approval. Its not earth shaking but we have seen there is room in the market and the fact the linzess or however you spell it is trying to counter with new trials at lower dosage to compete with Phase 3 data of SGYP puts us in the drivers seat. I think MRK vs GILD is fair comparison. divided by 100
You seem scientifically astute . So Ron SMith what do you base your hypothosis thta SGYP compound Dolcanatide which is early stage studies for treatment of diseases that cause inflammatory bowel would be an attractive mechanism for delivery of targeted payloads?. From my basic understanding Dolcanatide essentially causes water to be drawn into the bowels. Similar reaction to eating a really salty meal which causes you to feel bloated by retaining water. There are a lot of smart people who can piece value propositions of compounds far beyond intial indications. THere are also people who know things that I wont mention but that knowlege is more or less I heard it from the horses mouth and we will leave that to that. And last there are people who know nothing about the science behind a drug and are blindly drawing conclusions.
I cant say i disagree with you in badly managed bios but they obvioisly are not badly managesd. We are now at 3 times annual peak sales for parkinsons. Fair price for sure. To think i bought this at 1.70 years ago and sold at 7 thought i was hot #$%$. Lol at least this time i held on to 50% of my shares.
Alzheimer's is 5 times the mkt cap easy crunch that number i bought in at 18 sold half at 25 will buy back that same half at 29 . no questions asked. Sell a quick hit at 31 wait for the bears to pushbbefore fda date and trille down . nice day. Nvta rung the register at 10.75 not sure why but 6.50 avg i was stupid not to ring more.
The comments of the speaker now is dead on. Tearful pleads are more aimed at the disease it has nothing to do with efficacy or saftey. One person may see great percieved short term benefits but you really dont have a huge amount of data .
I dont think the vote will be polarizingly bad or good so a buying oppurtunity or shorting oppurtunity will present it self for sure.
there is no approval being done today it is an ADVISORY PANEL. they advise the fda on what their decision should be.
7 billion is a pipe dream. More like your addressable mkt cap is max 2.billion for parkinsons. remember acad owe a royalty to all future sales. No drug with exception to rare exceptions captures and exceeds that initial indications market cap . Hence why companies will only pay two to three times average annual estimated peak sales for approved indications . Parkinsons is not worth 7 billion. Its worth maybe 3 billion. Parkinsons by itself would only warrant 30 dollar per share offers . If the bar is 2 feet for parkinsons and they make 2feet and one inch than that is going to hurt the prospects for alzheimers. So i prefer to back up the truck when the mud settles . Trust me when i say the board and bakers bros would have inked the deal if the price was right before the panel . And if they opt to wait longer then you will thank them if you see 100 plus share price when we are at the same day before the panel review for alzheimers. Recipe for 100 dollar PPs. Your company has the only treatment for your indication. Your drug has a significant cure rate over other treatments and you have a drug that can be approved in multiple indications allowing you to charge more for the smaller indications and drop your price on the secondaries. You have to guarantee revenues far beyond 7 years to warrant big dog offers. I may be stating facts but the stock is slighly overpriced at 30 dollars without any news on alzheimers. I saw 40% ROI I would be reckless not to ring the reg. Hogs gets slaughtered but sometimes get lucky I rather wait and see if the first few get through the guantlet before putting my head on the platter.
For sure . max rev is 1 billion i think half of that is more realistic. There are reasons why larger pharma shys away from certain indications.but no one knows if the next big pharma will rise to greatness. Sratistically we know that % is low . even if approved no guarntees your investment will pay a handsome reward. Its risky but nkt as risky as we know data.
I took profit and will buy 50% of what i sold back at a lower price on open. I have settled funds fot this reason. I have seen positive panels vites followed by fda rejecting unanimously. It your money your brain you do ehat ypu think is right. The panel only reccomends what fda should do . anything but sweeping vote of confidence will calls doubt 2 front buy spinning guys like AF. It's a long time till the actual decision is made there is plenty of time to make money between now and then and after then . my Avenue is to be cautious .
the whole 25% a day before fda panel is odd. It could have been a big buy , a big sell knowing the something we didnt to get out of a short position before getting whipped. It could be a knee jerk move to get people who wanted to buy but didnt to buy on emotion and reduce the shorts exposure by opening a new short at this higher level . That being said i sold out today and will buy 50% of what i sold today at 25. Its a coin flip how the market will react to results.
Hogs often get slaughtered think about it anything less than an 10 to one advisory panel vote will be viewed as a potential non approval in may. Why not pump and get in a short later today? Be carefull i got out 40% profit is enough for me not greedy.
I just think this exposes the significant downfall of growing eps 10xs on the back of one compound with other companies in line for releasing alternative compounds boasting similar cure rates. Competition will lower prices drasticalky. Curing diseases eventually leads to lower popukatons to treat. There hiv dominance is being dethroned. They have yet to show institutional inveators a 5 year alternative eps beast to losing exclusivity. I prefer celg now for many reasons. And i prefer amgn and jnj.
No no one knows what the technology is really worth the trial data leads me to believe one indication alone is worth 10 to $15 per share when the market comes around for bio you'll see $20. Average of 10 I'll take that.
Heade caution if you see any sales . i think i will open a position