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ChemoCentryx, Inc. Message Board

too_much_sunshine 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 10:41 AM Member since: Apr 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Shelf

    by biotia Aug 19, 2014 10:24 AM
    too_much_sunshine too_much_sunshine Aug 19, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    I agree. In this situation that's all it takes. In addition, the second half of August is often the worst part of the year for biotech. This is often when you see 0.1% of the float move a stock 10%.

    And I see it gets still worse...

  • Reply to

    Stock price, ridiculos, terrible, underpriced,

    by smearjob Jul 29, 2014 10:26 AM
    too_much_sunshine too_much_sunshine Jul 30, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    That's the key-it was a lousy collaboration, which is now gone. I'm not a fan of splitting indications, which is what the Sanofi Pasteur deal did. Now the rights are available globally for all indications to a potential partner, which is much more efficient and desirable. Someone wanting in for the CF indication, for example, will not have the possibility of the drug being marketed out there by a third party, even though it would be marketed in another "space". With the improvements seen in lung function using the Vertex drugs, the potential for this drug to have a meaningful impact via reducing infection has increased. If the CF phase 2 data is strong, the way has been cleared for a partnership.

    The usual stock reaction to a terminated collaboration is to sell, but Kalobios wanted this change. This opens up possibilites. So sometimes ending a collaboration is a good thing.

  • Reply to

    This puppy will be $12 by year

    by cl122cl Jul 23, 2014 9:52 AM
    too_much_sunshine too_much_sunshine Jul 23, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Look at Puma (PBYI). Commentary out there that the "small-cap biotechs overvalued" narrative is overdone, and that it's a little more complex than Yellen's comments suggest. Hence the dramatic move on positive clinical news.

  • Reply to

    I want to believe

    by opto7825 Jul 16, 2014 9:08 PM
    too_much_sunshine too_much_sunshine Jul 17, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    It's tough to believe at a time like this. We make an assessment and put our money where our thinking is. Then the price drops like this and our thinking gets affected by our money. But look at the volume-it's very low. We're in the doldrums. There's concern of a correction. On top of that, Yellen has to add her thoughts on small-cap biotech being inflated. Admittedly she was referring to companies bigger than LPTN, but the spill-over certainly doesn't help us. So right now the space is under pressure. I honestly don't know when the presssure will let up. But if your assessment is that the technology is viable and that the outcome of the clinical programs will dictate the price, then it can be argued that where we are is absurdly cheap.

    I consider CLDX somewhat of an analogy. Hopefully over the longer-term it performs that way. But I was bullish on CLDX in the 4's. Then they dropped under $4, then under $3. After two years the stock started to move up meaningfully, with a nice blow-off top last fall. Did I care that I could have bought lower than the 4's? No. The gain was so substantial that whether I bought at $3 or $4 didn't matter. I had followed CLDX from 2009 on. What I saw was a company building IP and a pipeline in an area that had a good chance of becoming huge. It took a while for them to build momentum-they even went through a Pfizer partnership breakup. But during 2010 and 2011 they were putting together an immunotherapy machine that finally, a few years later, was recognized as such by the market.

    While LPath is smaller than CLDX was back then (along with other differences, of course), they are similar in having a strong position is a space that may become huge. LPTN has some important near-term catalysts. And the market cap for LPTN is very small. Naturally the potential upside is huge. There's always risk. But if things work out to investors' satisfaction, holding for the last few years won't have been wrong, just early.

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