...that posts rendered in ALL CAPS are nothing but blatant cheerleading.
A TEVA purchase of OPK would be proof positive that management has lost its mind!
Do you know if Frosty opposed Levin's being put in the CEO position?
I agree with you & rarely stoop down in a parking lot for anything less than a quarter!
PS: I disclose a Hold sentiment only because I have enough TEVA to match my other pharma holdings (otherwise I'd consider it a buy...)
To Oedd & BFeed:
The singing lessons offered to DippityDont have proven him/her to have a tin ear.
I restate my investment thesis as follows:
Buy best of breed branded pharma (in my case ((arguably)) NVO & SNY) & add a PBM & a generic mfg (in my case ESRX & TEVA) & you have a position in pharmaceuticals which is somewhat hedged IMHYFOTMO (in my humble yet frequently off the mark opinion...)
DippityDont makes vague citations of generic Copaxone & claims he knew about NATCO (not) & now he at least knows how to spell glatiramer acetate & Tecfidera even if he would have difficulty saying "oral MS therapies supplant injectables (try it in front of a mirror Dip.)
I could care less about TEVA's branded lines (I bought TEVA for their scale in generic mfg & capability to produce bio-similars.)
My worries about TEVA center on relationships between members of top management & my optimism that the players will eventually play well together is definitely a weak point in choosing TEVA for the generic portion of my pos.
Trade your life away Dip - you're coffers will be lighter after the frictional costs of short term cap gains tax & brokerage & the lack of compounding.
Oed; generic Viagra is good news for an old fort like me too!
There; that ought to give Dippity something valid to insult me with...
You should be informed BEFORE you make bold statements.
In this case you are correct in that Mylan has an agreement to market a generic version of Teva's Copaxone (AKA glatiramer acetate) which will be manufactured in pre-filled syringes by an Indian company called NATCO & marketed by Mylan.
This is poetic justice since TEVA has infringed (and paid for it) on a number of branded therapies.
You got lucky being right about generic competition but luck does not make for a successful investing formula.
Do your research & THEN make your predictions.
That being said; TEVA's response to this definite threat to Copaxone is to attempt to attract patients to their new 3 times weekly formulation from the present once a day treatment.
The real threat though; arguably comes from Biogen's Tecfidera.
It's not a matter of if; but when & how quickly revenue from Copaxone will deteriorate.
I'm long TEVA but not for their branded pharma.
Management's hair pulling contests are indeed more disconcerting to me than generic competition; as they really need to develop their long range plan & stick to it.
Now it's someone else's turn; do me a solid & post some info on Soros & why he's in this thing...
I've only owned TEVA for a year now.
I bought it because of the scale of their generic operations & ability to produce biosimilars.
As you all know; companies like Express Scripts & CVS Caremark (just signed 10 year agreement with Cardinal) & Catamaran & Walgreen are all working hard to push patients to generics over the next decade.
(The PBM's have also stated their goals to reduce generic drug costs.)
I also own Novo Nordisk & Sanofi & Express Scripts & view these positions as hedges on each other (if I ever sell one; I'll likely sell them all.)
I hope TEVA's management can get past their domestic squabbles (can anyone give a little color in this area?)
Theories about Soro's move?
I'm not trying to start rumors with this but it seems like TEVA could unlock some value it it spun off branded pharma.
Just interested in any educated guesses about the results of such an action.
Could Soros be a catalyst?
I don't know anything about the guy & I'm too lazy to do any research on him tonight...
They have an interesting mish mash of potential products (the prostate cancer test seems promising) but I think Frost just sees an opportunity to make huge profit for himself by selling to TEVA.
This is just conjecture; but, maybe Levin didn't want the company to buy a pig in a poke & Frost got rid of him so he could pave the way for a deal?
Some of you sound pretty knowledgable about TEVA.
Any opinions on spinning off branded?
I'm long a small 300 share pos & consider it a pair trade against my branded pharma positions...
I agree with you on the poorly timed repurchase.
I think the investment banker who did the deal was incompetent & maybe Abate is gone as a result of this move too.
With their FCF as it is; they could initiate a small dividend to prop up the stock.
How will the new CFO allocate capital?
By the way; Mussalem is required to own 6 times salary & the board also have minimum ownership requirements.
I'm looking forward to the form 4 filings to see if they take advantage of present value.
As to their future prospect; I think they'll do fine against MDT...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Perforation of the right ventricle is a complication which can occur after installation of a pacemaker.
Medtronics TAVI procedure almost always requires the installation of a pacemaker whereas Edwards does not.
Please explain you remarks about the TAVI procedure REQUIRING ventricular perforation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Anyone who says they can predict the future with certainty is a straight up liar.
However; I do have a theory that Edwards will benefit from Medtronic entering the market.
WalMart & Target or Home Depot & Lowes are almost always built right next door to each other because they know it increases traffic to the area.
I believe Medtronic's strong sales & support will enable more centers to be approved for this procedure & thus make them eligible for reimbursements.
European centers have been split as to who they purchase TAVI product from.
Some of them lean more towards EW & some buy more from MDT.
All of them seem to give the lions share to the 2 biggest players in this market.
I also believe that Edwards R & D will continue to expand on this procedure to include Mitral (soonest) & other approvals.
Go to Edward's website & look at all their heart valve repair & replacement offerings & then do the same thing on Medtronic's website.
They all look very similar & EW has competed admirably against MDT under the present management team since their spinoff from Baxter in 2000.
The only change is the CFO T Abate who is retiring this year after 31 years with Baxter & then Edward's.
If EW has made any misteps; I would say it was in repurchasing shares this year & last for $83 which indicates they are optimistic for the future or hired a moron for an investment banker to acquire the shares (I think it was a combo of the two...)
An added kicker is that Vanguard has been buying a lot of EW this year for multiple different funds they run.
IMHASDRO (In my humble & sometimes dead wrong opinion) I think EW is a buy & hold (while judiciously keeping updated on progress) for the next 10 years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good luck with that...
It appears that the markets vision has cleared regarding the ACA & how ESRX will fare.
That said; I wish you'd be right so I could double up for my 10 year horizon!
Express Scripts' exclusion of Novolin, NovoLog, and Victoza from its 2014 national formulary could have negative effects on NVO's revenues next year.
Walgreen's felt the back of ESRX's hand & bent a knee.
The same may happen here in the form of lower prices from NVO contrary to the CEO's statements about premium pricing.
Sleight of hand (and it's actually going to be a 5 for 1 split...)
Each ADR will become 5 ADR's so if you own 100 shares then you'll own 500 on 9 Jan 2014.
Back to the sleight of hand part...
Share count multiplies by 5 & earnings shrink to 20% of present EPS.
(Any gains will be from short term trading/arbitrage.)
Shareholder count increases with the lower price & unwanted volatility creeps in IMHO.
I much prefer a lower number of shareholders who hold for longer periods & allow the stock to mirror it's intrinsic value more closely.
The only real reason a company would want to split like this is because it increases the max allowable shares in the charter (1000 allowed with 700 out before split - changes to 5000 allowed with 3500 out & now the company can infuse capital by selling 1500 more shares from the treasury instead of just 300.)
Seems stupid to me considering NVO has AWESOME free cash flow (CAPEX is minuscule in comparison to operating cash flow) & they have very little debt so who stands to benefit most from this move?
Novo Nordisk has 2 classes of shares:
A = 25% of capital & 75% of votes & are not publicly traded (owned by The Novo Nordisk Foundation)
B = 75% of capital & 25% of votes & are publicly traded
The split is being done on the "B" class shares which presently get 100 votes per share as opposed to 1000 votes per "A" share.
Will the voting remain proportional or will the "B" shares get an increase from the present 25% of votes?
I love Novo's business & still think they are trading below intrinsic value but this capital change & recent statements from the CEO about premium pricing policies puts me off a bit (Express Scripts can & will alter NVO's fortunes in the US with a simple change in their formulary...)
Can anyone explain to me how this split helps or hurts NVO customers & shareholders?
I'm long TEVA & ESRX as a pair trade.
My hope is that TEVA will do an Abbott type spinoff of branded & keep the best of generics.
I doubt it will happen but a guy can dream!
The complaint alleges that the EW made false/misleading statements &/or failed to disclose material information related to the EW's projected sales, financial prospects, & adoption of the Company's SAPIEN transcatheter aortic heart valve:
a) due to physicians' concerns over the risks and complexity of the procedure for implanting SAPIEN adoption of SAPIEN was weaker than the Company claimed
b) the Company's outlook for sales & earnings per share was significantly weaker than suggested to investors & as a result the Company lacked a reasonable basis for its statements relating to the Company's operations, forecasts & outlook.
Point a) is bogus. It's not the risk & complexity (it's no more complex or risky than cutting someones chest open to replace a valve.)
The problem lies in getting approval for reimbursement by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) under Coverage with Evidence Development (CED)
Do a Google search for "Decision Memo for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement" & find the requirements which take about 5 minutes to read & is pretty easy to understand.
Point b) is a straight up lie.
Edwards gave guidance & although it was a bit optimistic; they've still posted phenomenal Sapien sales.
IMHO anyone who is a member of this class action (and declines to be the lead plaintiff) would be hard pressed to tell you how many valves the heart has; let alone, be able to describe the various failures which would lead to a valve replacement or the repair methods used.
Most of them probably just heard "no more need to crack open a chest to replace a heart valve" & assumed that meant for ALL heart valve candidates.
The TAVR procedure is presently indicated for patients who can'r tolerate the trauma of open heart surgery.
Over the next 5-10 years TAVR could become available to mainstream candidates which would extend the already long runway for EW & yes MDT & SJT too.
Well researched Bear cases are welcome / Wiggle watchers; go away...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
More voodoo from someone who couldn't even tell you what EW does.
Shorts have already been piling on (watch out for that 3+ day overhang & make sure your hedged or be prepared to scramble...)
If EW goes substantially lower; I'll double up!
You'll be gone from EW in another year & I'll still be an owner in 2020 with substantial gains.
I always welcome well thought out fundamental bear cases but doubt I'll hear anything from OMG on this front.
Wiggle watching mumbo jumbo (NOT...)
Sentiment: Strong Buy