SI # is as of 2 weeks ago right? well, we prob had some cover since then... but it does not surprise me that we have not decreased SI... w/ options so active, shorts are mostly hedging w/ options here. not to mention our daily volume isn't that meaningful in recent weeks.
these are all 'very late' hiring positions... at PDUFA date timeframe. no company I have followed w/ potential launch so close (if approved, Aug? just 3 months away), hires key personnel at this late stage in the game...
if nothing else, RLYP will have this entire year in the market by themselves w/ no competition in chronic.
Medical Affairs Directors - ZS is hiring them NOW. (cardiology and renal - 2 personnel)
Hiring these type of personnel at PDUFA is VERY LATE...
just an observation.
usually more than 1 year to 18 months before launch, these type of personnel are hired.. in my previous experience.
there are plenty of strange things happening at AZN/ZS..
not to mention AZN CEO seemed totally disinterested in ZS upcoming PDUFA in last ER c/c... and AZN is going through restructuring now w/ strategic focus in oncology... almost seem like ZS acquisition is "old" strategy and AZN doesn't even care...
few retail have covered and some will cover b4 Thur.. most significant short sellers have not covered and won't.. they have hedged.
I used to be a short seller for 15 years for a fund in my past life.. I have some notion how this works and so far, rlyp is no different.
by now, big money is set - either way. retail is only ones talking, twitting, worrying, etc.
let it play out and see what happens.
I have some call options here... (personally I think ZS won't get clean - as long as FDA is legit)...but hoping for whatever the reason (panic, misreading FDA labeling, etc), rlyp sells off initially to the ZS decision so I can load the regular shares cheaply. just my wish... but in case it doesn't happen like that, I have call options.
I've seen so many opposite initial reaction to fda announcement, I am HOPING this will be one of those cases where ZS gets bad labeling, but market just sees FDA approval in the headlines and sells off
sure we will get rumor, but not until call sellers are 'ready'... remember, these call sellers are 'in the know'...they control the stock movements for now...
IF we get a big pop, 100% we will fade... your choice what to do w/ your shares.. I am just giving you my input.
frankly, CRL is a very remote possibility although it could happen. still, shorts have option as hedge, so they would not lose everything.. but a lot if CRL happens...then, they would short the pop and keep the game going, until they can make money, so saga can continue....
matter of fact, my most likely scenario is bad ZS decision, labeling, we pop to $20-22 at open, but fade back to $17-18 within 5-7 days... all due to shorts working it. so, if shorts re-shorted that pop (gap up), then they can still come out ahead at the end...
remember, a lot of shorts know how to play the game... and as long as they have dry powder, they can play.
advice: if we pop above $20's, sell ALL..... b/c we WILL fade back down to $17-18. why I say this? huge call sellers over the past 30 days will bring the pps down to this level before June OPEX... they HAVE to... and they will.
it will happen w/in 30-60 days.. foundation for BO is prob already done... bidder(s) waiting for ZS label (more accurately, RLYP Orwin is waiting for it to leverage if he can)... b/c I think foundation is already there, actual BO announcement shouldn't take long POST ZS decision. Again, end of June - July is my bet. Orwin isn't going to go beyond that.. even if the price is only in the 20's... he has to sell... no way this small co. can keep up like it is a BP... you need BP's infrastructure, sales force, know-how, leverage in the market place, etc.. Rlyp would need billions of dollars just to get 1 drug successful, IF they go alone... it's impossible
why would SI go down significantly? like ultra longs, shorts have their own reasons to be bearish and they believe in them. their reasons: some are -
1) AZN is BP, thus smart, resourceful and they 'must' know more than us retail. They bought ZS and not RLYP; thus RLYP must stink and RLYP has no future. Short it!
2) Well, Berens said Rx ramp up stinks, ZS will get clean label or at worst, some warning label but no BB. Berens has been right so far since late last year
3) RLYP Rx ramp up has been perceived as slow (I don't agree but..) and seems to have flattened out, so regardless of ZS approval or not, Valtessa has no future.
4) CEO RLYP seems to be spending more money than Trump's ex spouses combined... CEO is going to run the co. into BK.
5) big and smart shorts, of course, would have a hedge by now in option calls anyway, so given lackluster volume lately, they are NOT going to cover their regular shares; rather, buy options.
Every co. that's been bought out in the past 1 year - RCPT, ZSPH, etc.. all had healthy short interests.. it's really not relevant at this time due to heavy option interests, especially call options (many are shorts hedging), and contrary to popular belief, shorts really don't know more than longs do... it's betting game
yes it is.. monkey in suit & tie... his analysis is about as useful as abacus is for my tech loving 8 year old son.
he has it all covered, no matter what the outcome. ZS clean label, check! bad label, check!, RLYP BO, check... at the end w/ BO, he will just say, RLYP never traded fundamentally, due to strategic optionalities that were always on the table...
200 weekly moving average.
looking to enter here.
maybe it hits .. maybe not.. all depends on sector ... IBB is on edge of breaking down or reversal.
not sure which one yet.
ENDP is ridiculously low but will prob keep going down to sub $10 soon. VRX - new 52 week low too soon.
HZNP is best of this bunch but sentiment sux.
12.75 would be decent risk/reward. as long as one holds a while.
thanks. i agree there is a good chance this happens in the summer before Sept but certainly not a certainty w/ FDA.
quite a few catalysts here in 2h 2016. main event is pdufa in september + European MAA application shortly thereafter.
60+M total shares X 4 = 250M MC with 130-140m in cash injection as of formation of ARLZ so EV is merely 100-120M. very cheap considering fda ok is now an almost certainty by 4 months if not sooner + other avenues of revenue - Vivomo, etc.
And they have 200M credit to go make acquisitions this year. i am sure we will see one w/in 6 months
cheap valuation given what's ahead. and market looks ahead 6 months (+/-)
has anyone seen PDUFA decision being made months before the date? given 2-3 year saga of missteps on 1 rather simpler issue w/ manufacturing (on both the co. and FDA who missed some inspections), it seems earlier fda decision could be made....
but then again, it is FDA so I suppose Sept is the time frame for most likely decision.
VRX link aside, I do think at this point, Endo should sell itself to large pharma. at this depressed level, it's best for shareholders.
still don't get why there are so many outstanding option interest for $35 calls expiring next Friday. 15K OI albeit in terms of dollar value, it's not huge.
some rich nut betting small lunch $ (relatively speaking) perhaps? someone is expecting news I would assume, as I doubt that sector rally itself will get this stock from $28 to $35 in 5 trading days.
52 week retest of 12.8 almost there. 1 more big down day would do it. that would get me right below my cost average and I can add again.
c'mon shorties. work harder; sell your cheating wives and your pets and toys and short this more. this is perfect storm - if u can't do it now, it won't happen ever.
14.18 now. chart looks to roll over again below 14 at close. then, tomorrow, get it to touch 12's.
I make $.. on both sides. I am not crazy believer of any co. or anyone. I just care about making $.
until I don't, I am long here.
nothing you morons post change my mind.
horrific sector sentiment - VRX, MNK, ENDP down HUGE. And we are still in 15's far from 52 week low and well above my cost basis of 13's.
not adding yet - and will not unless it goes below cost basis.
not expecting any stellar quick returns here. just basing here in the low 10's (13-15) until election; and then take off 'whenever' HZNP feels like it.
nice to have been a LT holder unlike 99% of posters here who either short or are longs at much higher cost. that's why I do not trade much and when I go long or short, I hold for 1-2 yrs usually.
I don't read much posts here anymore because I know what garbage they are, but I just want them (shorts ) to know that I am still smiling and making paper money and more importantly, in 1-2 yrs, this will be a 200-300K $ gain in my bank.
that's what matters.
unless u can get the stock to close below 16 on high vol; your worthless posts mean nothing.
if u r going to play short the right way, at least know what u r talking about.
unless stock closes below 16 on vol, downside on this stock is very limited.
even w/ below 16 close, downside is $1.5 or so... risk reward here for shorts just isn't that good.
I would say FANG stocks when SPY goes to retest 180's would be worth the short. I am short AMZN and NFLX there as of today few min ago.
u all get so excited about making $2-3 short in HZNP when you can make so much more in others.
fair or not, hznp is tied to vrx to some degree - factually not true but in this market, it doesn't matter. funds get out to reduce exposure (hznp is heavily fund invested co.); traders enter to short the stock on headlines looking for blood.
also, we have SEC subpoena ongoing w/ no resolution yet. myriad of factors that play into this.
if I were CEO, I would just let this be. no reason to come out now and announce new acquisition (won't have the impact desired) or defend the stock. wait for better sector sentiment to return. perhaps latter part of 2016 it might. until then, I think we side way trade here in the teens. I have a wide range of $15 to 20 for the time being until election is over.
in worst scenario where IBB sees 200 (would be 50% crash from 400 peak), then I see HZNP being a 12 stock once again. that would be the GREAT opp to load up. it would be below my average but I would be happy to do so.
bio sector sux right now. worse, market is toppy so SPY could easily lose 100 pts or more and even could hit a new 52 wk low after FOMC meeting. so not good to be in stock market. have a lot of dry powder
only 2 holdings I have are rlyp and hznp. rlyp is BO play for me. hznp is just a 2-3 yr play
more short term gyration. HZNP is not VRX. but VRX issues r not good for the sector in trouble with headlines and horrible technical.
if we break 16 this time, unfortunately it will go down more. in the past 16 held multiple times but it can only hold on for so long. we break this time, I do think we see much lower, regardless of P/E being so low. just not a good time to be in - bio tech and worse, headline stocks like VRX, HZNP etc.
good thing is at some point this will be over and HZNP will be fine.
still holding all 100% shares and plan to buy more if we do indeed dip into 14's to 15 area. that will happen IF IBB re-tests 240 area or set a new 52 wk low.
avg cost still in the 13's for me, so I am holding up ok, but devil in me wishing for the stock to come down more to my cost basis level again to add.
we will see