BP has 40 billions reserved and paid into trust account already and booked. Su is about to face any oil spill from railcar or pipeline. If the keystone is approved on condition that oil co. will have to declare bankruptcy, I do not think SU will support and can guarantee 0 oil spill. CNQ dropped heavily. The oil sand co. will lose money before any integrated oil such as BP, XPM, CVX since the oil sand oil has a lot higher processing costs. In relative term, BP is saver since it has just got out from the fitness class and trimmed a lot of fat. BP earns money in oil trading as well and arbitrary on oil price globally. SU just does not have the know how. .
Didn't you hear China has offered to backstop of slip of Russia eco. if asked ? Limited downside in Russia at this point. BP was negotiating bigger stake instead.
FCX has gold portfolio that ppl forget
The incremental surge in income could be significant. How much lift to EPS is the question. 20% - 50% assuming the lift is inversely prportionaly to oil price drip ?
It's probability and risk/reward ratio. 10% downside risk,30% upside . You choose. If take out on the table, 30% immediately
Whenever I have money, I will buy more for sure. This is an opportunity of a life time.
Just like when I bought MSFT when it was below 28 when its was earning money every single day. The longer it goes sideway, the more money it has accumulated and the bigger the bounce. I am patient waiting while collecting my juicy dividend.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I guess the derivative is betting on shorting oil to go down from 100. It will earn trillion plus . Probably this is why it is buying trading books from Deutche Bank and others to increase scale. .
It will a national pride for UK to approve so that UK can own the largest oil co. in the world and surpass XOM. It makes so much economic sense for Shell and BP. It will be a win win situation for both Shell and BP. All Shell has to do is to sweeten the pocket of BP's executive exit package.
The uptrend is clear for IT. IBM will rise with the boat. If it can earn 15-16 dollars per year , it will be great. Earning anything above will be a beat.
When CS cannot buy a stock, it probably will issue a report to lower the price for buying. AIG has a very profitable margin. I expect that dividend increase and stock buyback are the catalysts.
AIG is a steady winner on hand. Analysts accuracy is 50% wiht 1 week to 1 month view. AIG is so much under valued that it has recovered and start earning a lot of money without virtually any tax. It is the best insurance stock. I rank it a bit higher than Prudential which is the second best with forward 9.x P/E with high quality assets with increasing ROE. .
SU generated around 2.7 - 3.2 billions free cash including investment based on last 3 years. Comparing to BP grew in Free Cash flow of 14 billions including investment in 2013 and trending higher from low of 5 and 7 billions in 2012 and 2011 respectively when penalty paid or put aside for penalty reserve in 2012 and 2011.
BP is about 3 times larger than SU and is on a growth path after the oil spill event. Both have health balance sheet.
It appears the BP is a deeper value than SU and a lot more diversified business with a lower production cost than oil sand. It's dividend is almost twice as much as SU and is sustainable and rumored to be a possible take out target for its quality assets. Unit production cost of BP is 12 dollars with growing Gas contribution over 50% , SU is 30 dollars not including adm overhead. (from their presentations)
Is BP , the second largest big oil co, is a better bet ?
XOM is 2.13 book value, BP is 0.89 book value, why buy XOM when you can get the other oil major at much better valuation with higher growth?