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Anglo American plc Message Board

topinvestgun1 87 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Oct 12, 2010
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  • Reply to

    To Topinvestgun

    by variousmarkets Sep 1, 2014 12:58 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 1, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    IBM pays more to borrow on debt market as sales decline. See the article in Bloomberg.. Cloud is threaten IBM as the industry is going through sea change for big iron. Otherwise, you would have seen sales growth.
    Short ratio for IBM shots up to historical high again this month. I will not fight the pro. traders. At least avoid being as casaulty. You could be right to hold IBM as dead money with high risk tolerance. I would consider AIG instead with 15% growth per year on a upward trend fundamentally and technically.

    I'll buy IBM when it shows me the money. 190 billions market cap generating (12- 6.9 billions) = 5.1 billions with declining sales. I based my analysis on 5.1 billions - 7 billions cash flow on conservative side. Sorry, i just cannot arrive at a price of 190. When the sales decline stop, then I may go back in. CEO does financial engineering when it has no where to grow, sad. The market does not like companies with declining sales and increasing debt. GM and GE are getting out of the business of financing clients, IBM is taking on undue risks.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Is MCD a buy?

    by mdn0403 Aug 30, 2014 9:42 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 1, 2014 1:27 AM Flag

    20 billions buyback by 2016. It's a no brainer to have steady gorwing, shareholder friendly co. that is selling on cheap due to one time event of a supplier. MCD has excellent management, increased margin due to coffee and drinks. I expect 15% return per year easily and double in 5 years. It is a sleep well at night stock that is proven through recessionary time with enduring cash generation and toll collecting ability.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I will posit

    by iamgarce Aug 31, 2014 8:13 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 1, 2014 1:23 AM Flag

    Hi , pal, read carefully, 6.9 billions of cash was from borrowing to make up the 12 billions. This seems to be an astoning feat in "cash generation" ability. If it is a small cap, I will think it is ponzi scheme. Borrow to pay investors. Also, 32 billions goodwill on the books that could face big write down with obsoleting technology of yesteryears. Show me the growth first before I believe it. Their cloud is two years behind, talk to techie, no one wants cloud from an elephant that does not dance. I believe the misleading growth in cloud was from the purchased small companies and not from organic growth. This again shows they are late to the game. Cheap Cheap application is available from Microsoft, Google and open source libraries. the business model has changed. So, the question is how much you want to pay for a company that does not grow but with declining sales.

  • I am waiting for an entry point. Technically, it is still on a lower low pattern with MACD cross to downward slope again. How's retailing in your region? It seems to be still constraints in spending by public.
    Perhaps, Oct will be a better entry time? Any suggestion on entry point will be appreciated. The current price has passed the analyst's consensus price already. Will the closing of 700 stores charge be taken this quarter?

  • The nice base building pattern and convergence indicates a likely break out. 9 dollars is loaded up in Sep, 11 dollars in Oct. cross over on 5 days, just wait for the volume to push over. Indian new govt is ready to lift the ban on gold in succession. Just wait for the good news soon. My target is at least 11. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 26, 2014 6:41 AM Flag

    when ppl look into details of the cash flow statement that it borrowed 6.9 make up the 14 billions cashflow, ppl will be surprised that it only make 7.1 billions in 2013 on a decreasing income increasing debt trend. Based on that number, I think 160 is generous.,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MCD will pop on Burger King news

    by topinvestgun1 Aug 25, 2014 8:26 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 25, 2014 11:33 PM Flag

    I found that too for few stocks , the timing is before the ex-dividend date. Who cares one time event that happens to a supplier, it is so laughable.

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Aug 25, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    MCD profit margin and ROE is much better than Burger King. It's global expansion and branding is much better than Burger King. Burger King is not recognized in other parts of the world. The acquistion shows the MCD strategy to expand into Coffee is absolute right and gowing.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 24, 2014 11:53 PM Flag

    It's 75% discount to valuation based on 10% growth in revenue. With -5% decrease in sales/earning which was proven in the last 9 quarters, it is trading at 31% over valued price. I guess the valuation is as good as the assumptions. I just cannot based the valuation on false assumptions and shrinking sales. Perhaps in 1.5 more years time. While this titanic is turning around, it will be different. I was fortunate to gain 50% from Microsoft. HP gained 100% in the last 2 years. I learnt my lessons not to waste time on sinking titanic, false hope, and be opportunistic on better companies. Just compare MSFT, HP chart with IBM. The chart told the story already. In terms of safe heaven and value play, Consider Mcdonald that provides lower beta than IBM, with enduring moot, grow faster than IBM, higher dividend, with impressive real ROE of 35%. Not the financially engineered one as in IBM. The recent pull back was due to one time event due to its supplier.
    I am waiting IBM to drop at least 10% once ppl recalculate its value using the real numbers instead of false assumptions of growth number. The scary thing is the increase 36 billions debt load. I would thing it is a ponzi scheme if it is a small cap. In the mean time, i bet long on Citi which will have catalyst to make 50% profit before I pick up IBM again at a cheaper price at 160.

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Aug 23, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    MCD has switched supplier from Thailand. Lifes back to normal. It's funny people sold off a blue chip fast growing companis at such discount. I was shocked when I look at MCD ROE, over 34%, very profitable a great allocation of capital. Out perform and steady grower in China and India. Eco. recovery will benefit US sales as ppl eat out more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by raggwead Aug 19, 2014 11:23 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 19, 2014 11:01 PM Flag

    I like MCD coffee. It will be a hugh grow engine on top of the opening 1500 MCD per year. It is grow with increased div. franchise with moot. Everyday in the subway, I see people grapping its coffee or breakfast. Top notch.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Clear signal and analysts and the crowd start realize the bargain

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Such a great company

    by updownclown Aug 9, 2014 9:43 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 11, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    IBMS is trhowing vapour ware at the momement. Nothing concert that can show me the money. Morale is at record low, cheap labor gethole, yet keep loosing market share and sales. Market share trail behind Microsoft and Oracle because of focus on financial engineer er, non-inspiring bean counter than visionary. When the competitor crave out business, it is #$%$ in to buy back shares and lopping off money generating capability. Any CEO can pop up short term number by laying off staff.. But it creates long term detrimental vacuum and advancing capabilities. IBM should put itself up for sell - perhaps Apple can swallow it. IBM lost mobile market, it loses hardware market, it lost chip market, it lost application market, it lost contract to cheaper service provider such as Tata, Wipro. Cognizant, Accenture. The titan is swirling for direction and get lost in the mazz. I will waiting for the down grade and big drop day.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    BX will be a screaming buy...

    by billlewisiv Aug 6, 2014 9:51 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 8, 2014 12:13 AM Flag

    I agree. This baby can jump 20% a day with its tremendous earning announcement. Hay, corporate is flushed with cash, M&A, wheeling and dealing is the game in town. .

  • It seems like the only way out of the 9 quarters of sales decline is to fire the CEO. Perhaps insiders know that it's coming? Based on 10B FCF, IBM only worth 143 with -5% decrease in sales. Better lower the valuation again. No wonder insiders keep selling.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Insiders sell like crazy

    by topinvestgun1 Aug 4, 2014 9:42 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 4, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Check insider transaction in Yahoo

  • Reply to

    BX dividend in my account today

    by sam_0534 Aug 4, 2014 9:22 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 4, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Strong co. I like the div. too. I expect it to increase the next time around. Bershire has 45% increase. BX will do better than that since it is more opportunitic. It's great investment manager and would ripe the benefits of investment in 2010-2012 such as the tons of ppreoperty they bought while the price was low. THe profit will soar . P/E of 9 is conservative with few more years to come

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Aug 4, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    jumping ship again for bad news

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Remember, still buying back share!!!

    by jeffreybul23 Jul 29, 2014 12:32 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Jul 30, 2014 12:02 AM Flag

    Yes. This should be a 10 dollars stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Management is confident on the business. Sales rose. Should see continuous strengthening and div. increase. Turnaround in traction for sure. 0.55 book value will catch up to 1.5 book. That;s 300% return. With patience, the normalized environment will come in 1 to 2 year.

11.95-0.20(-1.65%)Sep 19 3:59 PMEDT

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