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Anglo American plc Message Board

topinvestgun1 72 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Oct 12, 2010
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  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 20, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    -.76 book value, you can't be wrong to buy at this price. Eventually, junior will stop producing, and strong co. like AUY will increase production to harvest the juicy reward. AUY all in cost in around 700-900, capex will be down once the new mine is onboard. Hopefully, GG will not buy it out to trump the reward of Osisko .

  • The nice base building pattern and convergence indicates a likely break out. 9 dollars is loaded up in Sep, 11 dollars in Oct. cross over on 5 days, just wait for the volume to push over. Indian new govt is ready to lift the ban on gold in succession. Just wait for the good news soon. My target is at least 11. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    First time buyer at 90.99

    by hey_rob69 Sep 10, 2014 1:23 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 19, 2014 12:46 AM Flag

    trader on the news target 103. Increase dividend shows the confidence of management. I have seen hugh queue in Mcdonald with their promotional offers. The promotion can kill any competition. it is great value. I see customers in all age groups - from kids of 3, teenagers to man/women in all age groups.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 20, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    Collect the dividend while you wait. It will go ex-div. soon. Stock price is a perception. AUY business does not change a bit due to its stock price. If you believe that China and India consumes gold, and they are the growing market, then will be in demand with limited supply. Lower price will increase demand in half the population of the world, and decrease supply in the other half of the world. Simple logic to reason. Do know when, I have seen the inflation in my area going up. Big Mac goes up in price, utility goes up in price, my telephone bill goes up in price, my cable goes up as well.....If gold measures a basket of good, it will rise to equilibrium. You can be greedy when others are fearful.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It was in Yahoo news. That should lift the demand and force gold to be delivered.

  • Reply to

    Fast action by China

    by goldmanpillageandsack Sep 2, 2014 4:20 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 3, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    The Chinese is also building a new canal above Panama that is strategic. Similarly , it is buying gold to position Yuen as another world currency. Gold will rally once its manufacturing number reflects the boom in China again. I believe that the US and Euro govt cannot delivery the gold bar that they sold. Well AUY is below book value with high quality asset, and increase production. It is a safe bet for a double

  • Reply to

    BX dividend in my account today

    by sam_0534 Aug 4, 2014 9:22 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 4, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Strong co. I like the div. too. I expect it to increase the next time around. Bershire has 45% increase. BX will do better than that since it is more opportunitic. It's great investment manager and would ripe the benefits of investment in 2010-2012 such as the tons of ppreoperty they bought while the price was low. THe profit will soar . P/E of 9 is conservative with few more years to come

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Aug 25, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    MCD profit margin and ROE is much better than Burger King. It's global expansion and branding is much better than Burger King. Burger King is not recognized in other parts of the world. The acquistion shows the MCD strategy to expand into Coffee is absolute right and gowing.

  • Clear signal and analysts and the crowd start realize the bargain

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is MCD a buy?

    by mdn0403 Aug 30, 2014 9:42 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 1, 2014 1:27 AM Flag

    20 billions buyback by 2016. It's a no brainer to have steady gorwing, shareholder friendly co. that is selling on cheap due to one time event of a supplier. MCD has excellent management, increased margin due to coffee and drinks. I expect 15% return per year easily and double in 5 years. It is a sleep well at night stock that is proven through recessionary time with enduring cash generation and toll collecting ability.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • transportation recovery will lift all boats. Google, VOD, ACN, IBM, Constellation, CGI, GM, Ford are looking for growth in the Internet of Things, This is a perfect target for so many companies. I believe the poison pill is long gone. Management should consider alliance or out right sell to grow to the next tier. Strong balance sheet with so much cash will require 100% premium at least. Or return some to shareholders to reduce being the target of takeover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mcd and its coffee.....

    by raojibhai171 Oct 2, 2014 7:05 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Oct 4, 2014 12:47 AM Flag

    I have heard from the insider that the free coffee works beautifully and graping market share and pocket share from consumers. And, the coffee is great. I noticed that customer ended up buying more than coffee. 10 cents feebie attracted 5 - 7 dollars sales with 2 to 3 dollars net profit. Look at the balance sheet, amazing track record. Assets is increased steadily year over year roughly 10%, number of treasury stocks keep increasing positively. the outstanding stock decrease by another significant percentage year over year. No wonder Bill Gates foundation bought it as core holding. Very predictable and profitable business with moat. ROE of 35% very impressive. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BX will be a screaming buy...

    by billlewisiv Aug 6, 2014 9:51 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 8, 2014 12:13 AM Flag

    I agree. This baby can jump 20% a day with its tremendous earning announcement. Hay, corporate is flushed with cash, M&A, wheeling and dealing is the game in town. .

  • Reply to

    Such a great company

    by updownclown Aug 9, 2014 9:43 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 11, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    IBMS is trhowing vapour ware at the momement. Nothing concert that can show me the money. Morale is at record low, cheap labor gethole, yet keep loosing market share and sales. Market share trail behind Microsoft and Oracle because of focus on financial engineer er, non-inspiring bean counter than visionary. When the competitor crave out business, it is #$%$ in to buy back shares and lopping off money generating capability. Any CEO can pop up short term number by laying off staff.. But it creates long term detrimental vacuum and advancing capabilities. IBM should put itself up for sell - perhaps Apple can swallow it. IBM lost mobile market, it loses hardware market, it lost chip market, it lost application market, it lost contract to cheaper service provider such as Tata, Wipro. Cognizant, Accenture. The titan is swirling for direction and get lost in the mazz. I will waiting for the down grade and big drop day.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    To Topinvestgun

    by variousmarkets Sep 1, 2014 12:58 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 1, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    IBM pays more to borrow on debt market as sales decline. See the article in Bloomberg.. Cloud is threaten IBM as the industry is going through sea change for big iron. Otherwise, you would have seen sales growth.
    Short ratio for IBM shots up to historical high again this month. I will not fight the pro. traders. At least avoid being as casaulty. You could be right to hold IBM as dead money with high risk tolerance. I would consider AIG instead with 15% growth per year on a upward trend fundamentally and technically.

    I'll buy IBM when it shows me the money. 190 billions market cap generating (12- 6.9 billions) = 5.1 billions with declining sales. I based my analysis on 5.1 billions - 7 billions cash flow on conservative side. Sorry, i just cannot arrive at a price of 190. When the sales decline stop, then I may go back in. CEO does financial engineering when it has no where to grow, sad. The market does not like companies with declining sales and increasing debt. GM and GE are getting out of the business of financing clients, IBM is taking on undue risks.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I will posit

    by iamgarce Aug 31, 2014 8:13 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 1, 2014 1:23 AM Flag

    Hi , pal, read carefully, 6.9 billions of cash was from borrowing to make up the 12 billions. This seems to be an astoning feat in "cash generation" ability. If it is a small cap, I will think it is ponzi scheme. Borrow to pay investors. Also, 32 billions goodwill on the books that could face big write down with obsoleting technology of yesteryears. Show me the growth first before I believe it. Their cloud is two years behind, talk to techie, no one wants cloud from an elephant that does not dance. I believe the misleading growth in cloud was from the purchased small companies and not from organic growth. This again shows they are late to the game. Cheap Cheap application is available from Microsoft, Google and open source libraries. the business model has changed. So, the question is how much you want to pay for a company that does not grow but with declining sales.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Aug 24, 2014 11:53 PM Flag

    It's 75% discount to valuation based on 10% growth in revenue. With -5% decrease in sales/earning which was proven in the last 9 quarters, it is trading at 31% over valued price. I guess the valuation is as good as the assumptions. I just cannot based the valuation on false assumptions and shrinking sales. Perhaps in 1.5 more years time. While this titanic is turning around, it will be different. I was fortunate to gain 50% from Microsoft. HP gained 100% in the last 2 years. I learnt my lessons not to waste time on sinking titanic, false hope, and be opportunistic on better companies. Just compare MSFT, HP chart with IBM. The chart told the story already. In terms of safe heaven and value play, Consider Mcdonald that provides lower beta than IBM, with enduring moot, grow faster than IBM, higher dividend, with impressive real ROE of 35%. Not the financially engineered one as in IBM. The recent pull back was due to one time event due to its supplier.
    I am waiting IBM to drop at least 10% once ppl recalculate its value using the real numbers instead of false assumptions of growth number. The scary thing is the increase 36 billions debt load. I would thing it is a ponzi scheme if it is a small cap. In the mean time, i bet long on Citi which will have catalyst to make 50% profit before I pick up IBM again at a cheaper price at 160.

  • Reply to

    Help me valuate SU

    by topinvestgun1 Oct 12, 2014 3:50 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Oct 25, 2014 11:53 PM Flag

    The Cash Flow is 9.5B, Capital Expenditure is 6.3B, therefore FCF is 3.2. To worth the price, one of the following has to happen: Cash Flow has to increase, Capex decrease to worth more than the 23 dollars assuming 10% growth. Since I do not understand fully or have visibility to it, I stay away from it for now.
    From another angle, Warren Buffet bought it at 29 when oil price is 100-110, now oil price is 80, a hair cut of 20%-30% at least not including the multiplier effect. 29*0.7 = 20. Still not enough margin of safety and protection from tax loss selling. I bought his other holding CBI instead, for that I can easily arrive at 149 for a current price of 53 assuming 20% growth. The growth trajectory is much better with higher ROE, lower P/E, Even 10% growth will give me 87. I think Bershire may buy out CBI likely since he said acquisition target is in Europe. This is the one I believe. Even if he does not buy it out, it is a great co. with the Cash Flow statement that I can understand. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • M&A is in high gear. ARO is dirty cheap with the reinvestment in international markets start paying off and time to ripe the reward

  • Yamana will make money at the current low all in cost regardless. War seems to be a friend of gold.

10.60-0.03(-0.28%)Oct 31 3:59 PMEDT

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