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Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Message Board

topinvestgun1 104 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Oct 12, 2010
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  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 4 hours ago Flag

    I meant I cannot live without them. MSFT is a Cash Cow

  • Anyone know what's brewing ? I really like the change in the Outlook and addition of Onedrive. I just do without it in everyday of my work without Word, Windows, Excel , and accessing my Outlook email and document on one drive. This CEO will grew the co. again

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warren got what he wished for

    by topinvestgun1 Nov 20, 2014 12:40 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 22 hours ago Flag

    In accounting, you can shift income up or down the quarters. If you look at the cash flow, which is difficult to lie, is actually increase. You can also applied special charges to lower the income for a quarter or a year. Now, if the purpose is to purchase more shares, what would you do to lower the price of stock? Say profit double? No, you would say the profit is lousy (cash flow in fact increase). stock price plunge, buy more shares. The year end quarter will be adjusted it up and get the bonus. I have seen these corp. tricks too long. If I can buy a global business with pricing power at this P/E level, and making money years after years. Do you really have to look at a third quarter. Check the financial statements, year end quarter is the show time and bonus time. The 10 billions has already bought 20% more shares!. THis is why I tthink she can achieve the $20 per share EPS target. Set expectation low, then surprise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Warren got what he wished for

    by topinvestgun1 Nov 20, 2014 12:40 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 21, 2014 1:31 AM Flag

    All I care if IBM is making money. At his price, IBM is still making money with a very decent return . I will treat it as utility with long turn growth with high profit margin. I do know their ROE is high, it means that it is not a capital intensive business and can return handsome return. It can jack up software price for client any time. I was shorting IBM few months back figuring the CEO would lower stock price, and short ratio was ridiculously high. But now, the short ratios of the last one year hover in the high 10 to 11 dropped to 2.4 is indicative of Hugh turn signals. Even back then, it was not expensive, I was just waiting for the entry point. I figured that if it can consistently generate 15-18 billions income for a market cap of 190 billions, it is 8% return compound every year. For a global co. with establish income stream, this is very inexpensive. A large cap global co. should commend 17 P/E. More importantly, it is share holder friendly and reputable co. returning money to share holder through stock buy back. I did not expect sales increase if IBM was selling some of the business. The important thing is profit will shift from low margin to high margin business. Warren Buffet is right if one sit down and crunch the number. Check out Warren's CBI as well, I like it better than IBM but I like lower beta of IBM. IBM will be my retirement and sleep at night stock. 2.7% is better than bank while I wait for the strong surge. Great track record, High profit margin, Shareholder friendly, dominate in global IT Service are just few reason I like to buy it as diversification from my big banks. The risk for IBM is very low, consistent return is very high - the Warren Buffet style. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Staying LONG on BP...

    by insurancefla1 Nov 19, 2014 8:51 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 20, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    It's bargain. Snow storm in Buffalo will help to lift it.

  • Reply to

    ginni 'the scrooge' rometty

    by txtrader77 Nov 6, 2014 11:19 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 20, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    IBM Smart City initiative is taking root at Barcelona now. More good news are coming.

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Nov 20, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    Watch it soars

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Nov 20, 2014 12:40 AM Flag

    Buy when others are fearful. "You wish the stock be languish for the stock buy back period.". These are exactly the right timing. He is probably very happy.

    I figured the accelerated buy back should be finished and about right time to dive in.
    Big Contracts such as Luthiansa, the super computer etc. should follow. Start the journey to higher margin service business is gradually unfolding. Just wait the big deals news one after another till Dec. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 18, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Nasdaq takes the short ratio snapshot reflects 2.4 and is a bit later than Yahoo. So, short is trending much lower, Buffet won't sell, so the 2.4 is a very great number compare to 11 to 9 in last year. As expected, IBM just announce another deal. It will be the best performer in DOW in the next while. Fundamentally, it is a very very very very profitable business. The last quarter cash flow actually increased if you look carefully. Income number can be manipulate , cash flow does not lie. I expect the hired gun for stock repurchased profits from both side. It is the long time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Way to go! MCD is flexing its marketing muscle. Star Wars next year? The Heros will properly appear in MCD soon near you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 18, 2014 12:23 AM Flag

    I like stocks that earns money and go sideway for a while. It means that the accumulated earnings are accumulating in the balance sheet and shares are reducing. The longer it goes side way, the bigger the surge. The momentum of IBM looks very good and exhibits this pattern. The shortie has gone home and long again. Index and balance income funds are buying IBM and money continuously flowing in. This is one of the most undervalued stock in DOW with global moat. The announcement of 325 millions dollar of super computer deal is just the beginning. Expect more deals announcements pouring in. This year end quarter is the Chirsmas shopping with surge in deal closing for salesman to get bonus. Watch the stock to surge, my target is $220 - $230. which will still be 10 times P/E assuming the reduced stock will enable the 20 dollars earning again. At which time, I will reevaluate the situation. There is at least 40% profit for sure ! This is why Warren is adding the chips. Downside risk is minimal as proven by the hugh short covering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SU will hit 20 soon

    by listen_jockers Oct 11, 2014 2:28 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 17, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    Due to the risk of carbon tax, oil spill, low commodity oil price, I will venture into this stock if it is really really under value. I would add 5% point to the bond rate of 3% of a total 8% risk premium on top of 3% no risk 10-year bond rate as the expected return. That is 11% of risk adjusted return. I am sure that i am convinced at this point for a P/E of 19. The estimate output will be lower and cash will decrease next quarter, hummm, searching for entry point. Expert say , the first 52 week low will not be the last, I am waiting for a good entry point from the tax lost which is still 1 month away to bottom. .

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 16, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    That adds another reason - tax saving before EBITA. you can use before tax dollar to write off 40 billions dollars which has been written off and booked. It is like AIG and C will not have to pay taxes virtually for another 10 - 15 years because of Hugh written off loss in yesteryear. What it means is that moving forward, there will be surge in profits in the coming years with an additional of 30-50% tax saving profit.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 16, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    Hedge fund is swarm with cheap money and can do a leverage buyout deal partnering with any Big Oil co. e.g. BX, KKR are great private equity firm that attracts money looking for higher yield in the low interest rate environment. They have longer term view to make things work. Cheap money at a cost of 1-2%, grab co. that pays 6 - 10%, take 2=3% overhead, few percentage point of profit of 100 billions generates few billions profit. Even without synergy, it can make a killing. This is why good co. will be target at this environment if their stock price stays low. Either way, it will a target or BP price has to be force upward.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 16, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Yeah, Shell has the capability as well. Big oil co. can gang up take out BP and divest what they do not want.

  • Reply to

    Help me valuate SU

    by topinvestgun1 Oct 12, 2014 3:50 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 15, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Well, I follow his buddy Bill Gate too and put my bets on Microsoft and his core holding of MCD. Why not follow the institution that have already done research for you and most importantly credibility. I also use mirror stock such as DFS instead follow follow directly on Visa and Master Card to confirm what I hold is sound and better credit card co. If you buy below his price, it should win. He bought Exxon, I bought BP which is even much cheaper. But for SU, I just do not have access to the payback period of capitial expenditure. On surface, it is a 20 dollar stock to me as reasoned above. I would pick up BP that pays 6% dividend instead and I can understand BP balance sheet better. It is the cheapest of the major oil with upside of being taking out.

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Nov 15, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    I believe that the cost of oil sand production is 80 per barrel. Does it mean SU will lose money for every barrel of oil produce or risk shut down costs?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • With BP cheap valuation and global reach. The takeover of BP by ExxonMobil can save billions of overlapping administrative cost. It is much cheaper to buy out BP than fracking or oil sand or exploring ever dangerous territory. An oil spill in Alaska or Artic would bring co. to its knee. From risk standpoint, it is much less risk than drilling in Acrtic or go into war zone. BP should be a 60 to 70 stock if it is not the hang over. The reserve is more than enough to cover the liability. One way or the other, with patient, I can see it reaches new highs once the US recovery uses more oil. If Russia slow down the flow of gas to Europe in coming colder season, oil price in Europe will pop, my target is 70 while collecting juicy dividend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think BX is the best private equity firm in taking opportunistic moves. The assets they bought in recessionary time should double, triple, or IPO will bring in at least a 10 - 15 times multiple of assets. It is continuing its upward trajectory. Getting the juicy yield while I am waiting deserve a pad on these executives.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Glad to see the share buyback continuing

    by chart_watcher99 Nov 13, 2014 9:48 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Nov 14, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    It way under valued considering what Google would pay for the robots.

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