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Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Message Board

topinvestgun1 74 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Oct 12, 2010
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  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 18 hours ago Flag

    The tricks work. For CEO to make the 20 per share bonus. I knew that some write down was coming to depress the stock price, then buy back more shares to make the mark. Last quarter buy backs slowed down. After today, it drops triggered some stop lost selling and entered over sold territory. It is outside the Bollinger band now. My expectation is that the next quarter, will be a positive surprise cause IBM tends to book the sales at the year end quarter. I can ignor third quarter number. BTW, Meggie in HP used the same trick before to lower stock price for buy back. EPS will jump positively next quarter.

    So, at this price, it looks a good bet that it can be a good trade. I have been short IBM before today and now I go long. The short ratio is coming down fast. Collect the dividend as well for the year end rally in tech sector. Warren Buffet may gang up with SAP or Oracle, and chime in to buyout IBM, impossible things can happen with cheap money. Mark Hurd could be a great CEO for IBM.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Perfect set up of a jump of 20% at least.. Triple bottom was tested and breakout is ready.
    All indicators are lining up for a big run. Search on news an hour ago -
    Gold prices rebound in Asia ahead of China Q3 GDP:

    European stocks fell on Monday after German business software maker SAP cut its 2014 operating profit forecasts, which bolstered gold's appeal as a safe haven during times of market turmoil.

    Germany's Bundesbank reported earlier the country's economy barely grew in the third quarter, as industrial output slowed and business sentiment deteriorated.

    In its monthly report the German central bank said that while the euro zone's largest economy was unlikely to enter a recession the economic outlook for the fourth quarter was cautious.

    A weaker dollar boosted gold futures as well.

    The dollar softened against many major currencies earlier on concerns that even though the Federal Reserve is seen closing its monthly bond-buying program next week, rate hikes may come later in 2015 than once anticipated to make sure cooling European and Asian economies won't dampen U.S. recovery.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Oct 19, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    Yes. Gold will rise as interest rate rises as proven in the past. I believe that this is the time Goldman is buying. The floor and support at 1200 is very strong. ABX is paying enough dividend for me to wait than my GIC. I figured that downside risk of say 10%, upside is 100 to 200%. It is a worthwhile trade. The CEO has ways to find partners since the assets are of top quality. I agree that It is beaten up low enough that the big cap such as ABX will lead the way. Analyst target is 25. No brainer to buy at this level when you can get it dirt cheap. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • M&A is in high gear. ARO is dirty cheap with the reinvestment in international markets start paying off and time to ripe the reward

  • Reply to

    Insider keeps buying

    by topinvestgun1 Oct 12, 2014 12:20 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Oct 14, 2014 7:16 AM Flag

    Chk insider section in Yahoo, they bought at 52.9. You can tell the artificial correction is created by hedge fund at the last half hour of the trade day. Fundamentally, the market is poised for new highs. It is absolutely not expensive considering companies and AIG alike are buying back stock. The P/E of market is at probably 13/14 forward earning. Still have 20 to 30 ^ to grow. AIG will double in 3 years once the interest rises. It 's the weak hands was shaken, lots of free money from Europe and Japan , plus in North America are paying negative interests.

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Oct 12, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    I plug in the 3.2 Billion Free Cash Flow last year to my discounted cash flow formula, with 1.47 billions stock. Even I assume 10% growth, which could be high based on PEG of 1.3. I could only arrive at 23 dollars. Without growth, it is only 18 dollars. What am I missing?
    Warren buffet bought it at 29, but it was only small amount. Did I miss anything or my assumptions are wrong? Warren Buffet lost money on CBI as well. Assuming generating 3.2 billions free cash is very optimistic to me, it was generating only 1.9 billions in 2012. Your advise is appreciated .

    Sentiment: Hold

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Oct 12, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

    It's amazing cheap. Business as usual at AIG wiith improved profits . Hedge fund has a small window to buy . Once the earning season kicks in, the window of opportunity will be closing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • topinvestgun1 by topinvestgun1 Oct 7, 2014 6:37 AM Flag

    when it will be bottom

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Oct 5, 2014 2:39 AM Flag

    Time to buy. Based on research and behavior in the past, gold rises when interest rate rises. ABX is a low cost producer. Junior will shut down. Price will be forced up

  • Reply to

    mcd and its coffee.....

    by raojibhai171 Oct 2, 2014 7:05 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Oct 4, 2014 12:47 AM Flag

    I have heard from the insider that the free coffee works beautifully and graping market share and pocket share from consumers. And, the coffee is great. I noticed that customer ended up buying more than coffee. 10 cents feebie attracted 5 - 7 dollars sales with 2 to 3 dollars net profit. Look at the balance sheet, amazing track record. Assets is increased steadily year over year roughly 10%, number of treasury stocks keep increasing positively. the outstanding stock decrease by another significant percentage year over year. No wonder Bill Gates foundation bought it as core holding. Very predictable and profitable business with moat. ROE of 35% very impressive. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 30, 2014 11:55 PM Flag

    You sounds desperate to buy MCD to cover your short. Sep quarter has passed. The next bull run will start soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The 10% Cut for Skills Deficit

    by yield_of_my_dreams Sep 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 27, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Part of the reason of IBM declining sales is that companies are finding opportunities to exit IBM's mainframe technology. This is the time and cycle companies are reinvesting - one of which is to bit the bullet, dump the technology of the 80. IBM was able to extend the life for a while but not for long. I know at least 2 big companies are migrating mainframe apps and dropping the "screen scrap" mask of big blue to other vendor's apps. IBM got both blows on software and hardware. I would continue to short iit and waiting for the Oct's earning saga and see if the trend continues.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    ginni 'the needy' rometty......

    by txtrader77 Sep 22, 2014 9:54 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 23, 2014 12:59 AM Flag

    That is why she selling her shares lately

  • Reply to

    mcd RAISED DIV

    by raggwead Sep 18, 2014 4:49 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 23, 2014 12:51 AM Flag

    6 consecutive months of raising in consumer spending. This shows the confidence of the CEO and the board are doing what they say to return 20 billions money to shareholder.. Great management.

  • Reply to

    Strong sell

    by eagle_eye_20_20 Sep 20, 2014 7:26 AM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 23, 2014 12:46 AM Flag

    It's obvious that you want to buy MCD and asking people to sell. Otherwise, you would not be on this board.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 23, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    Check out MCD presentation on the web site.

  • Reply to

    why so weak?

    by andevenabs Sep 22, 2014 1:52 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 23, 2014 12:34 AM Flag

    It's ex-dividend date I believe. Tons of LNG project in the pipeline.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ready to rally!

    by angmar2000 Sep 20, 2014 1:50 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 21, 2014 11:45 PM Flag

    I see 45

  • Reply to

    Ready to rally!

    by angmar2000 Sep 20, 2014 1:50 PM
    topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 21, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    Agree. Tons of money earned, the earning from previous IPO will gradually flow in.
    New IPO will rack in more with rising assets bought.

  • topinvestgun1 topinvestgun1 Sep 21, 2014 11:36 PM Flag

    Look at BNN video, guest indicated that research showed Gold rise when Fed rises interest rate in an interest rising cycle. That's very interesting. Gorget the guess name commenting on China opening stock market

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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