I was wondering IF i could get $68..(and what others are thinking) . I agree that long term this will be a good investment. I didn't think that at $120 for a short-near term play - but in the $60 -$80 range for long term I feel much more comfortable. - The question is how to get the best entry point now. - -I tend to like your thought of not trying to pick THE optimal point -but rather averaging into a position over time.
They are increasing the number of shares in the float.-but we don't; know who bought those yet. (if long term institutional investors (likely) then they won't have a direct immediate impact on the number of share available. - While they are increasing the number of shares available they are also increasing the equity in the company to the tune of 17 million. this will still result in dilution but it also gives the company more "breathing room" to re-toll and possibly do other acquisitions without having to take on burdensome debt. - The next 6 months to year will be very interesting.
The stock could go up more than 50% just by liquidating. - look at the cash on hand - to say nothing of the equipment etc. Anything that makes them positive cash generating will be welcome.
The over-allotment was all sold. That tells me that some big buyers were lined up to "take the shares at an attractive price" These are most likely longer term investors which is hwy we haven't seen a bunch of s\hares dumped on the market. - Time will tell.
Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC will make about a million dollars on this deal. - Not bad for not having any investment themselves. - assuming they can line up buyers before they have to pay Orion. - Financial service fees are very costly to investors... That is like a 6% commission on a $15mm deal...
BABA is still way over priced in my estimation. - I do like the company and its future prospects but am wondering at what point will it be a reasonable buy. - It will continue to have a big multiple premium over the general market - but when the general market corrects BABA will suffer more than most. - My thinking is that $60 might be a reasonable entry point - but I think there will be significant support at the original offering level. - for those of you who have been watching from the sidelines what do you think?
I would say dump - This stock is at 1999 bubble price now. - There is no reason for the multiple that the market is currently giving it. - Once the market goes into correction phase. (when, not if) you will see this tumble rapidly. - At the very least use stop losses. If you can make some money in-between by writing covered calls go for it.
Something does seem odd about the timing and structure of the transaction doesn't it.-- I agreed that you would think with so much invested the institutional groups would want a say in how things run. Before all the shares that traded today and what will be coming they already had over 20% of the company. - Maybe they "cut a deal" to get the shares at the 3.50 price. - It will be interesting to see how the "single underwriter" allocates shares to other brokers / dealers vs how much is already done in a "prearranged sale"
For every sale there is a buyer... I just wonder how many of the shares are being snapped up / supported by Ariel and North Star??? between those two they now have effective control of the company if they choose to exercise it.
How much will go against debt? etc. What will that do to operating cash flow? - Will they use part of this for other acquisitions. - Net affect on "book value? -- Estimates on what you think the short -and medium term impact will be on stock price? -- This didn't go down as much as it might have (at least so far) - I wonder how much of the new offering will be given "on allocation" to market makers and Ariel? -- If there really isn't that much of the new offering hitting the market in term of "trade-able shares" then the net impact might actually be positive above the $3.50 level. --Thoughts???
You take what you can get for now. - at one point this was a $65 stock.... Compare the price per sales dollar to Facebook, Alibaba, or Google now. - How much leverage on the upside exist for ACI - how much downside potential is there for high multiple tech stocks. - Risk/Reward????