With oil closing at around $91.30 CAZA has locked in a huge hedging gain for quarter 3. IMHO the hedging gain will be about $1.2M. With an average Boed of 1,400 for the quarter revenues should be aboiut $8.9M. I am exoecting a net profit of about $2.4M for the quarter.
The Broadcaster well has already reached 2,621 Boed and is still increading. At this rate the well has the potential to completely pay for itself in one month. This could be a gamechanger. The well is currently adding about 500 Boed for CAZFF. CAZFF is likely now producing about 1,800 BOED total.
If you don't own any CAZFF(CAZA Oil) you are missing the opportunity of a lifetime. They just reported results from their new Broadcaster 29 well. It is currently flowing at 2,621 Boed and is still increasing. CAZA has increased it's Boed from 700 in December to about 1,600 in September. They should report a profit of about $2M in the current quarter. How much does it sell for? Are you sitting down? How about .35 with a market cap of about $85M. Don't miss this one.
CAZFF(CAZA Oil) has announced a flow rate of 2,621 Boed that is still increasing on it's Broadcaster 29 well. If you do not own CAZA at .35 you are missing the opportunity of a lifetime. This company has gone from 700 Boed in December to about 1,600 Boed in September. They have increased Boed by 50% in the last three months. I own both stocks, but fortunately I have five times as much CAZA as SSN. Don't miss this one.
The following is my estimate of third quarter earnings based on an average of 1,400 Boed for the quarter(1,300, 1,300, 1,600). This allows for a 50% increase in revenue due to a 50% increase in Boed(937 to 1,400) less 5% for lower oil prices. I am allowing for a 25% increase in production costs, G & A and depreciation. Revenues $9.0M, Production costs (2.0M), G & A ( $1.6M,) Depreciation ($2..2M), Financing ($1.5M), Hedging +0.7M, total costs ($6.6M). EBITDA $5.0M. NET PROFIT $2.4M. This excludes any special charges or credits. This $2.4M profit would wipe out the entire loss for the first half and would make CAZA breakeven for the year.
John, thank you for the reply. According to the chart production averaged about 20,000 boe in quarter 2 and is projected to average about 35,000 boe in quarter 2 of 2015. That is a 75% gain in 12 months and would would put them at about 1,100 Boed by next June. Are they being conservative with their estimates? Their own projections don't show the kind of growth some are predicting here. It is still great growth, but I am comparing it to my biggest holding which is CAZFF. They have gone from 608 Boed in December to 1,315 Boed in July and should reach 2,000 Boed by yearend. That stock is .34 and has a market cap of about $80M. They plan to sell in 2015 and should fetch about $280M according to recent sales in the Permian basin less $50M in debt or a net of $230M.
Is there anyone here that actually knows what they are talking about? It seems to be mostly trolls and pumpers here. I want to increase my position here, but I am trying to see where these lofty expectations are coming from. The company has provided a production forecast for the next year. Is there any reason to not believe that forecast? Their projection calls for little or no growth after a spike in October.
I was looking at the production and revenue estimate from the latest presentation. It shows that 3rd quarter production and revenue will be less than 2nd quarter. It shows a big spike in October, but little or no growth after that. Would anyone care to comment on this. I continue to urge you to check out CAZFF. Boed went from 608 in December to 1,315 in July. It should reach 2,000 by the end of the year and 3,000 next year. The company intends to sell in 2015. The last Permian Basin sale was at $140,000 per Boed. This would make the sale price $420M minus debt would be $320M. That is four times the current market cap. I would like to take a bigger position here, but don't see that kind of growth according to the latest productions estimate. Comments?
If you look at the chart in the last quarterly report you will see that revenues are expected to double within the next few months. This will give them the cash to keep drilling without furthur borrowing or share issues. I'm not that concerned about a R/S or loss of NYSE listing. Over the counter is fine for a company this size. What matters is growth in Boed and cash flow and that is looking great.
A small purchase to get started. My biggest holding is still CAZFF, but we'll see what happens here. Hopefully, the weekly update will be out after the close and it will break through .40.
I had an order in at .396 and the dogs jumped in front of me and bought at .3961. I raised the bid to .397. Oil sure is getting hammered today. I'm glad SSN added to their hedges in May and has quite a few hedges. When does the weekly report come out? After the close?
I own some CAZFF and am thinking of getting some SSN. I would like some views as to which is more undervalued. CAZFF has taken Boed from 608 in December to 1,315 in July. They have ten new wells coming in 2014. It is .32. Thoughts please?
Production went from 608 Boed in December to 1,315 Boed in July. Seven more wells coming in 2015. They should report their first profit in quarter 3. Stock is .32 and grossly undervalued IMHO
You'll love CAZFF. CAZA has increased BOED from 608 in December to 1,315 in July. They have eight more wells coming in 2014 and should show a profit in quarter 3. The stock is .32 and has a market cao of $75M.
CAZA has just completed four new wells. We should be getting reports on these four wells over the next three weeks. I am estimating that CAZA's share of these four wells will be about 800 Boed for the first 28 days. With another well coming in late September I expect Boed for October to be 1,800.
I don't think very many people have a clue as to what is about to happen with CAZA. In the next 40 days CAZA should be adding four new wells. According to my estimate CAZA is about to add around 840 Boed in production based on the initial 28 day production of these four wells. I am estimating 800 Boed for Gramma and Broadcaster and 400 Boed for the two Forehand wells. CAZA has a 40%, 17%, 47% and 47% stake in these four wells. The first Gramma well had an initial 28 day flow of 877 Boed so I am not trying to be pie in the sky. The Forehand forecast is a wild guess because we have no history there, but I see others in the area with 400-500 Boed on verticle wells. At any rate the increase in Boed should be huge. My forecast for CAZA's share of the four wells is Gramma 320 Boed, Broadcaster 140 Boed, Forehand 190 Boed, Forehand 190 Boed for a total of 840 Boed. The Lennox 32 state 4H well should begin production the last week of September.
5) CAZFF arranges for a new better financing arrangement 6) CAZFF announces a $2M net profit on November 14 7) Word gets out about what a steal CAZFF shares are
CAZ should be adding five new wells between now and September 30. The Gramma 27 2H well is likely flowing now. The broadcaster 29 3H well is scheduled to be fracked Saturaday and should be flowing soon. The two Forehand wells are scheduled to be fracked in August and should be flowing soon. Drilling has begun on the Lennex 32 4H well. It should be completed in late September. Never before has CAZA added five new wells over a six week period. The potential to increase Boed over the next few weeks is huge. CAZA plans to drill an additional seven wells during quarter 4. I don't know what to expect from the Forehand wells. Six wells through July took production from 608 Boed to 1,315 Boed. Who knows what an additional twelve wells in five months will do for production.
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CAZA has seen Boed go from 608 Boed in December to 1,315 Boed in July, an increase of 707 Boed. That was accomplished with the addition of six new wells. CAZA should be adding an additional eleven new wells by the end of the year. We should be receiving production reports from four of those new wells within the next few weeks.
I am expecting CAZFF to report a net profit for quarter 3 of about $2M. Revenues should be up to about $8M. CAZFF has quite a bit of oil hedged. When oil goes up they take a loss on this hedged oil. When oil drops they take a gain. In quarter 2 they took a $1M loss on hedging. Without that hedging loss they would have made a profit. With oil down in quarter 3 they should have a hedging profit of close to $1M.