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Textainer Group Holdings Limited Message Board

tr_radcen 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 21, 2016 9:53 AM Member since: Aug 30, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Added today

    by mexcom Jan 19, 2016 2:03 PM
    tr_radcen tr_radcen Jan 21, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    Good luck with that. I dumped my MSB last year, and while I think it's a reasonable investment at today's prices, I'm concerned about the mega-mines which, from what I've read, can produce at $20/ton. If ore continues to decline toward that level, I expect that MSB will also drop, wiping out the benefit of any dividends.
    I now look mainly at the price of iron ore - which I expect has further to fall.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Actual Math

    by dog_house_reilly Dec 9, 2015 5:45 PM
    tr_radcen tr_radcen Dec 17, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    dhr, the math I'm interested in is whether either ore can be mined in the U.S., or steel can be manufactured, at an end price that is less than that coming from the giant mines in other countries, and offshore steel producers. Specifically, how much does transportation add to the cost for the end (or intermediate, for that matter) customer? I read a few months ago that some mega-mines are producing for ~$20. $20! As iron ore drops toward the actual production cost, how will this affect MSB's viability? I did an off-the-cuff calculation a few months ago that, with ore at $20, MSB would have to drop to $5 to be a decent "dividend" company, but that assumed a steady volume. Will there be ANY volume? ANY customers? Things are looking too shaky for even $5 (or $4, today) to be a solid investment.

    Sentiment: Sell

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