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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

tracktrend921 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 16, 2015 1:04 PM Member since: Sep 19, 2012
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  • he said it's time to lock them all in before the end of the year, saying many of the brokers in his firm is doing the same with all of their clients before this Fridays big employment numbers, and said no one wants to get caught in the greed trade that could end badly on a really strong or more wearer report.

  • and is recommending to all of its largest clients to take profits in all of their long position by at least half of the position, and in many cases much more then that before what they think will soon be a large reveal in the stock market.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Nov 28, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    The consumer your A_______..... z......__ z all the stores are doing deep discounts to just get people in their stores, and will be a short lived season, that will end up hurting all of there bottom line, with less than hoped for earnings.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Nov 28, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    The main reason behind the major move up in SPY was based on this Country becoming energy self producing, and creating high paying blue collar jobs related to shale drilling in the mid west, if this oil price war keeps bringing the price of sweat Brent oil down to $65.00 and lower a barrel, many of the shale oil company's will have to stop producing oil because they will be losing money, and that many people will start getting laid off in North Dakota oil fields, and that does not no longer a justification of SPY to be trading at these outer space levels, and with OPEQ hell bent on putting these guys out of business to grab market share back, you can count on it oil is going to below $65.00, and the big Wall Street criminals know it, but don't want anyone else to figure that out until they all sell out,

    Sentiment: Sell

  • He says on every pull back when the market should have more follow through to the downside like a day like today on the three different economic numbers out this morning missing their mark, this market should be much deeper in the red, but the machines being run by so many HFT firms running their ALGOS programs to stuff the Chanel's with many trades, that are being used to force other firms like hedge funds to have to buy in, are many times fake trades being entered and canceled in the blink of an eye, and being used by all of these firms who are in communication with each other all day and ever day of the week, to manipulate the market in the direction that they make the most money, He says this is a very dangerous thing to be concerned about, and think it's shocking that the SEC is so clueless and looking the other way, until the next big melt down happens because of it, and says he's glad that he is retired and does not have to deal with this very unfair playing field, that is all geared up for just one side of the Wall Street crowd.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • he had a negative year in this one fund that was in the red, and closed it out saying he had a hard time paying up for many stocks that he felt were way over valued at that time, and missed out on the bigger moves up on those stocks, and now feels at this point that most of those stocks that he passed up on are now 25% on average higher from when he first thought they were too expensive, so why would I buy them now, and why the fund was closed out, if one of the best performing Hedge fund manager in the past five years is gun shy to pull the trigger on many stocks at this level, what does that tell you, think about it, it's a major warning sign.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Nov 25, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    This is going to catch Wall Street with its pants down, when this grows to out of control with big riots in many CITYS starting for second night, that will keep millions of white shoppers the ones who spend 75% of the money in this country home and out of the malls, and that will burn every retailer in this country very badly.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • this guy needs a good lip smacking for his foolish comments, oil is going to below $70.00 a barrel you numb nuts JON.

    Saudis unlikely to cut oil production: Analyst
    CNBC By Tom DiChristopher
    4 hours ago
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    Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary
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    CNBC Video
    1 Schork skeptical of a cut from OPEC 2:58
    Schork skeptical of a cut from OPEC
    2 Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary 0:55
    Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary
    3 Defense Sec. Hagel said to be stepping down: NYT 1:28
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    Cramer: Rally that wasn't supposed to happen
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    Oil prices are bottoming, and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to heed Iran's request for a cut in oil production when OPEC meets Thursday, analyst Stephen Schork told CNBC on Monday.

    Iran's semi-official news agency Mehr reported on Sunday that ministers from Iran will seek a cut from Saudi Arabia, joining a chorus of other members who have called for a reduction in output ahead of the meeting.

    One factor that will influence Saudi Arabia's decision is the outcome of Iran's meeting with six world powers over its nuclear program. The participants missed a deadline to reach an accord on Monday and are expected to meet again next month.

    "There's no way in my mind that the Saudis are going to give an inch to the Iranians if the Iranians don't give them something in return today with regard to the nuclear talks," Schork said during an interview with "Squawk Box."

    Read More Oil price seen falling to $60 if OPEC does not cut output

    Saudis unlikely to cut oil production: Analys …
    Getty Images
    Saudi Arabia has no incentive to play long ball, said Schork, pointing to the 9 percent return on its sovereign wealth fund that has produced $63 billion in the first nine months of the year. Its rainy day fund now totals $740 billion, giving it the ability to weather the low oil price market, said the analyst, editor of the Schork report.

    Oil prices have plummeted 30 percent from their highs in June.

    The issue amounts to OPEC "have-nots" such as Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela demanding productive members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to transfer their wealth, Schork said.

    "Here we are, a bunch of capitalists, sitting around trying to bet on whether or not OPEC will behave like a good socialist," Schork said.

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been more prudent in regards to their budgets, engineering them to balance out with oil at $80 to $90 a barrel.

    Read More Why the Petrobras scandal is shaking Brazil

    He sees the bottom for oil at $75 to $80 a barrel, noting that low prices have increased Americans' appetite for oil ahead of the holiday driving season, which will help work through overcapacity and supply.

    "The only way I am wrong is if this is indeed 2008, 2009 and we are on the precipice of another global pull down. That to me is the only way we can break and really significantly drive prices lower at this point," he said.

  • U.S. Stocks are 2nd Most Overbought In History
    November 21, 2014 11:57 AM
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    U.S. Stocks are 2nd Most Overbought In History

    Everyone knows that, as a whole, the U.S. stock market is overbought. At the moment it doesn’t even matter what duration one is talking about, short, intermediate or long-term. But just how overbought is it? Today’s Chart Of The Day takes a look at the issue from 30,000 feet up. Measured against its long-term monthly trend since 1871, U.S. stocks are the 2nd most overbought in history. That is, if we can consider the stretch from November 1998 to July 2001 as one period. Outside of that period, stocks have never been this far above their long-term trend.

    How do we arrive at that? We are using the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite data available from Robert Shiller’s site. This composite is essentially the current S&P 500 with re-engineered pricing prior to its inception in the 1950’s with available stock prices from the time. We used exponential regression smoothing to find the “best fit” trend line on the series since 1871 (h/t to Doug Short on this.)

    After finding the best fit trend line for the composite, we can measure how far above or below prices are at a given time. As it turns out, outside of the afforementioned 1998-2001 period, November 2014 marks the first month in its entire history that the S&P Composite is 90% above its long-term trend.

    So what does it mean? We aren’t going to go into a long essay on its implications. We and others have written extensively on long-term, or secular, cycles. (See our November newsletter published today for one example). Suffice it to say, the stock market is extended. Can it stay extended? The past few years prove that it can. They also prove, in our view, that the intermediate-term (i.e., from months to years) is the best time frame to focus on when considering investing.

    I will only leave you with this: it likely is not the best time to commit a lot of long-term capital to the U.S. stock market. Sure, after reaching a similar overbought level in 1998, the market continued higher for another 20 months or so. So it is possible that the market continues higher unimpeded. However, looking historically, that period was an anomaly. If you are willing to bet on it happening again, go for it. If not, you may consider adopting measures, or managers, to aid in managing risk.

    Just my .02.

    ____

    Sentiment: Sell

  • and they all decide to buy with in the first hour on Monday, that's when it just might tank the very next hour after the last of the I'm not sure crowd is all in.

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