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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

tracktrend921 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 22, 2014 10:54 AM Member since: Sep 19, 2012
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  • and they all decide to buy with in the first hour on Monday, that's when it just might tank the very next hour after the last of the I'm not sure crowd is all in.

  • Both these supports are around $202.30 to $202.56 if this market can't bounce from this area today, the Santa pump rally might have to wait for a much bigger wash out below the two supports lines if it breaks them today and keeps falling, the bottom line is every market pro manipulator knows this market is way over valued, and with oil at risk of tanking to $50.00 by next week, that will be more selling pressure on the big oil, and oil related companies and all stocks, so that means I would not bet against on those two supports lines not getting broken today.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    I like the chances here on the long side

    by bal2_2 Dec 4, 2014 10:57 AM
    tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Dec 4, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    I have been adding shares all morning, and will keep adding every time the numb nuts start selling, and will get the last laugh when I sell it back to the shorts and chasers for much higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • U.S. Stocks are 2nd Most Overbought In History
    November 21, 2014 11:57 AM
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    U.S. Stocks are 2nd Most Overbought In History

    Everyone knows that, as a whole, the U.S. stock market is overbought. At the moment it doesn’t even matter what duration one is talking about, short, intermediate or long-term. But just how overbought is it? Today’s Chart Of The Day takes a look at the issue from 30,000 feet up. Measured against its long-term monthly trend since 1871, U.S. stocks are the 2nd most overbought in history. That is, if we can consider the stretch from November 1998 to July 2001 as one period. Outside of that period, stocks have never been this far above their long-term trend.

    How do we arrive at that? We are using the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite data available from Robert Shiller’s site. This composite is essentially the current S&P 500 with re-engineered pricing prior to its inception in the 1950’s with available stock prices from the time. We used exponential regression smoothing to find the “best fit” trend line on the series since 1871 (h/t to Doug Short on this.)

    After finding the best fit trend line for the composite, we can measure how far above or below prices are at a given time. As it turns out, outside of the afforementioned 1998-2001 period, November 2014 marks the first month in its entire history that the S&P Composite is 90% above its long-term trend.

    So what does it mean? We aren’t going to go into a long essay on its implications. We and others have written extensively on long-term, or secular, cycles. (See our November newsletter published today for one example). Suffice it to say, the stock market is extended. Can it stay extended? The past few years prove that it can. They also prove, in our view, that the intermediate-term (i.e., from months to years) is the best time frame to focus on when considering investing.

    I will only leave you with this: it likely is not the best time to commit a lot of long-term capital to the U.S. stock market. Sure, after reaching a similar overbought level in 1998, the market continued higher for another 20 months or so. So it is possible that the market continues higher unimpeded. However, looking historically, that period was an anomaly. If you are willing to bet on it happening again, go for it. If not, you may consider adopting measures, or managers, to aid in managing risk.

    Just my .02.


    Sentiment: Sell

  • Oil is tanking again after being higher this morning, and has put the stock market into a tailspin, and has broken key supports of Friday's lows.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • this guy needs a good lip smacking for his foolish comments, oil is going to below $70.00 a barrel you numb nuts JON.

    Saudis unlikely to cut oil production: Analyst
    CNBC By Tom DiChristopher
    4 hours ago
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    Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary
    CNBC Video
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    Schork skeptical of a cut from OPEC
    2 Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary 0:55
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    Cramer: Rally that wasn't supposed to happen
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    Oil prices are bottoming, and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to heed Iran's request for a cut in oil production when OPEC meets Thursday, analyst Stephen Schork told CNBC on Monday.

    Iran's semi-official news agency Mehr reported on Sunday that ministers from Iran will seek a cut from Saudi Arabia, joining a chorus of other members who have called for a reduction in output ahead of the meeting.

    One factor that will influence Saudi Arabia's decision is the outcome of Iran's meeting with six world powers over its nuclear program. The participants missed a deadline to reach an accord on Monday and are expected to meet again next month.

    "There's no way in my mind that the Saudis are going to give an inch to the Iranians if the Iranians don't give them something in return today with regard to the nuclear talks," Schork said during an interview with "Squawk Box."

    Read More Oil price seen falling to $60 if OPEC does not cut output

    Saudis unlikely to cut oil production: Analys …
    Getty Images
    Saudi Arabia has no incentive to play long ball, said Schork, pointing to the 9 percent return on its sovereign wealth fund that has produced $63 billion in the first nine months of the year. Its rainy day fund now totals $740 billion, giving it the ability to weather the low oil price market, said the analyst, editor of the Schork report.

    Oil prices have plummeted 30 percent from their highs in June.

    The issue amounts to OPEC "have-nots" such as Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela demanding productive members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to transfer their wealth, Schork said.

    "Here we are, a bunch of capitalists, sitting around trying to bet on whether or not OPEC will behave like a good socialist," Schork said.

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been more prudent in regards to their budgets, engineering them to balance out with oil at $80 to $90 a barrel.

    Read More Why the Petrobras scandal is shaking Brazil

    He sees the bottom for oil at $75 to $80 a barrel, noting that low prices have increased Americans' appetite for oil ahead of the holiday driving season, which will help work through overcapacity and supply.

    "The only way I am wrong is if this is indeed 2008, 2009 and we are on the precipice of another global pull down. That to me is the only way we can break and really significantly drive prices lower at this point," he said.

  • could that offer be over a buck, or much more, either way it's time to close out short positions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Dec 10, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    Fibonacci Retrace of 23.6 % is right at 2019 on $SPX and so is the 50 day EMA, if that doesn't hold and bounce then there could be a retrace to the 38.2 % that is at 1981 could be a possibility.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    SURE is ODD looking CANDLE on the DAILY!

    by embitteredtroll Dec 11, 2014 2:53 PM
    tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Dec 11, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Could be forming into a dragonfly doji before the close, the bullish full body candle has been lost and turned into a bearish dragonfly.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Dec 12, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    Oil falling will paint all the charts into the red zone, if it keeps falling to the $50.00 area, and when does fall to lower levels, and has this market breaking key support levels that will add more momentum to sell offs and scare more hedge funds out and lock in profits, in this market there are more chart watchers then there has have been before in its history.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • what I was seeing and I thought indicated was a big negative for the day on the five minute intraday charts was four failures on the day for it to be able to trade over its intraday 50 day EMA, and made four lower highs in a row over the past six hours, the last failure was two small touches of the 50 day line that it could not get over, and that was the straw that broke the camels back.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • he said it's time to lock them all in before the end of the year, saying many of the brokers in his firm is doing the same with all of their clients before this Fridays big employment numbers, and said no one wants to get caught in the greed trade that could end badly on a really strong or more wearer report.

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Dec 11, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Most of the big guys are all in the most liquid positions, so they are all in mostly crowed trades, that could create big sell offs when they all hit the sell button at the same time.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • also on the 15 minute chart it has tried for almost three hours now to trade over its 200 day EMA and has failed to do it, and not even once did it trade over it, many of the trending intraday indicators are now starting to turn down, and some have crossed below their single lines to the down side, all are a warning that lower prices could be coming next.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • and is recommending to all of its largest clients to take profits in all of their long position by at least half of the position, and in many cases much more then that before what they think will soon be a large reveal in the stock market.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Nov 28, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    The main reason behind the major move up in SPY was based on this Country becoming energy self producing, and creating high paying blue collar jobs related to shale drilling in the mid west, if this oil price war keeps bringing the price of sweat Brent oil down to $65.00 and lower a barrel, many of the shale oil company's will have to stop producing oil because they will be losing money, and that many people will start getting laid off in North Dakota oil fields, and that does not no longer a justification of SPY to be trading at these outer space levels, and with OPEQ hell bent on putting these guys out of business to grab market share back, you can count on it oil is going to below $65.00, and the big Wall Street criminals know it, but don't want anyone else to figure that out until they all sell out,

    Sentiment: Sell

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 Nov 25, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    This is going to catch Wall Street with its pants down, when this grows to out of control with big riots in many CITYS starting for second night, that will keep millions of white shoppers the ones who spend 75% of the money in this country home and out of the malls, and that will burn every retailer in this country very badly.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • He says on every pull back when the market should have more follow through to the downside like a day like today on the three different economic numbers out this morning missing their mark, this market should be much deeper in the red, but the machines being run by so many HFT firms running their ALGOS programs to stuff the Chanel's with many trades, that are being used to force other firms like hedge funds to have to buy in, are many times fake trades being entered and canceled in the blink of an eye, and being used by all of these firms who are in communication with each other all day and ever day of the week, to manipulate the market in the direction that they make the most money, He says this is a very dangerous thing to be concerned about, and think it's shocking that the SEC is so clueless and looking the other way, until the next big melt down happens because of it, and says he's glad that he is retired and does not have to deal with this very unfair playing field, that is all geared up for just one side of the Wall Street crowd.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • now with the big negative news for those two that puts big BLK clouds over head on all of the banks and related stocks, and means the end of year rally is now over with the Tech stocks rolling over and getting hit hard past two days, there is nothing left to pump, so it's a no brainer this market is going to get hit into lower by more than 5% from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • he said nothing has change from this morning, all of the negatives in the market are still in place, and will lead to more really bad opens like today for the next ten days, and would be selling everything you were losing money on this morning, before this sell off returns with even more momentum then what was seen just a few our ago.

    Sentiment: Sell

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