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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

tracktrend921 4 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Sep 19, 2012
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  • and they all decide to buy with in the first hour on Monday, that's when it just might tank the very next hour after the last of the I'm not sure crowd is all in.

  • U.S. Stocks are 2nd Most Overbought In History
    November 21, 2014 11:57 AM
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    U.S. Stocks are 2nd Most Overbought In History

    Everyone knows that, as a whole, the U.S. stock market is overbought. At the moment it doesn’t even matter what duration one is talking about, short, intermediate or long-term. But just how overbought is it? Today’s Chart Of The Day takes a look at the issue from 30,000 feet up. Measured against its long-term monthly trend since 1871, U.S. stocks are the 2nd most overbought in history. That is, if we can consider the stretch from November 1998 to July 2001 as one period. Outside of that period, stocks have never been this far above their long-term trend.

    How do we arrive at that? We are using the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite data available from Robert Shiller’s site. This composite is essentially the current S&P 500 with re-engineered pricing prior to its inception in the 1950’s with available stock prices from the time. We used exponential regression smoothing to find the “best fit” trend line on the series since 1871 (h/t to Doug Short on this.)

    After finding the best fit trend line for the composite, we can measure how far above or below prices are at a given time. As it turns out, outside of the afforementioned 1998-2001 period, November 2014 marks the first month in its entire history that the S&P Composite is 90% above its long-term trend.

    So what does it mean? We aren’t going to go into a long essay on its implications. We and others have written extensively on long-term, or secular, cycles. (See our November newsletter published today for one example). Suffice it to say, the stock market is extended. Can it stay extended? The past few years prove that it can. They also prove, in our view, that the intermediate-term (i.e., from months to years) is the best time frame to focus on when considering investing.

    I will only leave you with this: it likely is not the best time to commit a lot of long-term capital to the U.S. stock market. Sure, after reaching a similar overbought level in 1998, the market continued higher for another 20 months or so. So it is possible that the market continues higher unimpeded. However, looking historically, that period was an anomaly. If you are willing to bet on it happening again, go for it. If not, you may consider adopting measures, or managers, to aid in managing risk.

    Just my .02.


    Sentiment: Sell

  • this guy needs a good lip smacking for his foolish comments, oil is going to below $70.00 a barrel you numb nuts JON.

    Saudis unlikely to cut oil production: Analyst
    CNBC By Tom DiChristopher
    4 hours ago
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    Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary
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    1 Schork skeptical of a cut from OPEC 2:58
    Schork skeptical of a cut from OPEC
    2 Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary 0:55
    Chuck Hagel forced out as defense secretary
    3 Defense Sec. Hagel said to be stepping down: NYT 1:28
    Defense Sec. Hagel said to be stepping down: NYT
    4 Cramer: Rally that wasn't supposed to happen 2:10
    Cramer: Rally that wasn't supposed to happen
    5 Super-advanced spyware discovered: Security company 1:34
    Super-advanced spyware discovered: Security company
    6 Cramer eyes Lionsgate, thanks the Eagles 2:52
    Cramer eyes Lionsgate, thanks the Eagles
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    Yankee's male product lineup
    8 Loeb wins 2 board seats at Dow 3:37
    Loeb wins 2 board seats at Dow
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    Buybacks get a bad rap: Pro
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    Oil prices are bottoming, and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to heed Iran's request for a cut in oil production when OPEC meets Thursday, analyst Stephen Schork told CNBC on Monday.

    Iran's semi-official news agency Mehr reported on Sunday that ministers from Iran will seek a cut from Saudi Arabia, joining a chorus of other members who have called for a reduction in output ahead of the meeting.

    One factor that will influence Saudi Arabia's decision is the outcome of Iran's meeting with six world powers over its nuclear program. The participants missed a deadline to reach an accord on Monday and are expected to meet again next month.

    "There's no way in my mind that the Saudis are going to give an inch to the Iranians if the Iranians don't give them something in return today with regard to the nuclear talks," Schork said during an interview with "Squawk Box."

    Read More Oil price seen falling to $60 if OPEC does not cut output

    Saudis unlikely to cut oil production: Analys …
    Getty Images
    Saudi Arabia has no incentive to play long ball, said Schork, pointing to the 9 percent return on its sovereign wealth fund that has produced $63 billion in the first nine months of the year. Its rainy day fund now totals $740 billion, giving it the ability to weather the low oil price market, said the analyst, editor of the Schork report.

    Oil prices have plummeted 30 percent from their highs in June.

    The issue amounts to OPEC "have-nots" such as Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela demanding productive members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to transfer their wealth, Schork said.

    "Here we are, a bunch of capitalists, sitting around trying to bet on whether or not OPEC will behave like a good socialist," Schork said.

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been more prudent in regards to their budgets, engineering them to balance out with oil at $80 to $90 a barrel.

    Read More Why the Petrobras scandal is shaking Brazil

    He sees the bottom for oil at $75 to $80 a barrel, noting that low prices have increased Americans' appetite for oil ahead of the holiday driving season, which will help work through overcapacity and supply.

    "The only way I am wrong is if this is indeed 2008, 2009 and we are on the precipice of another global pull down. That to me is the only way we can break and really significantly drive prices lower at this point," he said.

  • tracktrend921 tracktrend921 16 hours ago Flag

    This is going to catch Wall Street with its pants down, when this grows to out of control with big riots in many CITYS starting for second night, that will keep millions of white shoppers the ones who spend 75% of the money in this country home and out of the malls, and that will burn every retailer in this country very badly.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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