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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

tracycai 409 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2016 11:42 PM Member since: Jun 2, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Disney last quarter beat was

    by lipkalr Apr 29, 2016 2:40 PM
    tracycai tracycai Apr 30, 2016 11:42 PM Flag

    Theme park price increase will help bottom line. It is big increase. Beverages also increased double digit. This quarter we have both Star Wars and Zootopia, plus Has has a huge beat due to Star Wars toys. Last ER they said they will not report revenue from toys so that is also a bonus. Of course, they will take about ESPN. If not ESPN, Disney would trade at $150 by now. Euro cup is coming up in June so that is also a boost. I see more upside than downside.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What you have to think

    by ritzkrakow5 Apr 21, 2016 11:15 AM
    tracycai tracycai Apr 21, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    I have seen this pattern with many mid cap or small cap companies post earning result. MM push the price down a bit so that retail got confused and sell their shares, the next day, it go back up and one week later, it is up 10% or more.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    WHY IS THIS STILL IN THE 500'S

    by cooldude4_11 Dec 8, 2015 7:17 AM
    tracycai tracycai Dec 8, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    I live in Boston, it is all over the news here. e-coli or not, do you think people would go there to eat lunch in doves like the old days? For one thing, my manager just sent out a memo that says "be careful eat at Chipotle". We usually go to Chipotle for lunch but this week we are going to Penera Bread instead. Wait for the next sales data come in.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tracycai tracycai Dec 7, 2015 11:55 PM Flag

    If I am long, I would be more worried if it is organized fraud because it means there will be more cases and they did a good job so far not being exposed. I think the possibility of "the dirty person" you mentioned is very very low, however, if it is true, long are in for big trouble, this "dirty person" seems very smart.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tracycai tracycai Dec 6, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    I don't think it is a good ida to compare Fit to Gpro. Just pick 100 people you know and how many of them do snorkeling or wind surfing regularly and how many of them do walking ( as exercise ) regularly. I bought a Fitbit myself and I really liked it, I don't think I need Go Pro camera, I'll put in the drawer and never remember I had one of those camera. Fitbit, on the other hand, I wear it almost every day. Personally I don't think Fit can go straight up, insider selling is a big issue, however, it is not another gpro.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tracycai tracycai Dec 1, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    I think the analysis (underwriters) wanted to use the latest good news to push the stock to higher so that they can unload their shares. I see a spark upside in short term running into Christmas. They will release report that holiday sales are stellar, etc and the insider sales news will not be reported. When it go up to the level they liked, then they will run the insider selling news and growth concern news. Same old same old.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Same #$%$, Different Day

    by kurganci Nov 30, 2015 4:38 PM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 30, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    This is back to pre-earning $113.40. Here is what happened. 1) Earning came out, ESPN is not as bad as previously thought. Stock rally. 2) Star Wars tickets hot sale on Fandango, rally more. 3) Come out a piece of news that ESPN is losing customers, back to square one. If I have a crystal ball. I will write chapter four which is when the Star Wars hit theater, forget about ESPN for now, Go Disney. Then suddenly back up to $120 and then chapter five, ESPN, ESPN, back to $113, rinse and repeat. My two cents, if you have not sold at $120, you might as well wait for two weeks, no pain no gain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Nov 30, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    I'm actually thinking the same question. Do you think it is due to insiders lack of confidence of the holiday sale? ( competitions, lack of new products ). However, the number from black Friday are much better than insider had hoped so they sold early. To them, making $100 million is better than then making $80 million but still, $80 million is a lot of dough so they were like, I'll take the $80 million while I can.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sucker's Sell. Don't fall for it!

    by daleprop Nov 27, 2015 11:19 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 29, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    May the force be with the believers, not the weak hands who gets scared easily. Mac was Apple's main breadwinner until iphone. So relax people. ESPN is currently the main breadwinner but Disney always knows what it's doing, what makes you think that DIS will keep the current model? It is a renovation company with top talent in the industry, they will figure something out. Comcast's stock at near 52 weeks high and why Wall Street does not care cord cutting in the case of Comcast? The answer is that they raised price a few times and they are able to bring in more money per customer. I know it sounds scary, OMG, the number one money maker is losing customers left and right, eventually it will be left in dust, run and run fast, but then you think about it, if ESPN do well and no cord cutting, with all the hypes of SW and SH, DIS should be trading at $150 and plus so technically the ceiling they put on us is ESPN. Old story repeat every week,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    buy at the close orders, very large orders

    by ksrmason Nov 27, 2015 12:23 PM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 27, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Well, the big boys know that DIS will have a SW run up so it is best to depress the price so that they can load up more before the run up. And then they'll keep print awesome news so the ones sold today at $115 will buy back at $125 and then the big boys come in to short. Rinse repeat, I see this game being played every single time. Just buy some puts and be cool.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Star Wars already priced in. DIS down from here.

    by warrman4 Nov 23, 2015 12:39 PM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 23, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    It will break 120 next Monday because "The Good Dinosaur" will be a smash hit this Thanksgiving. DIS is not one trick pony. People are canceling their international travel plan and go to Orlando instead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom

    by nickpat666 Nov 23, 2015 11:18 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 23, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    It feels like a no touch here. I don't want to short it either, it can rip you in your face if all the sudden, it decides to rally. But I also don't want to give me hard earned money freely to the greed insiders, it is like telling Park, hey, you are so awesome, come and take some of my money, here, sir!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Bottom

    by nickpat666 Nov 23, 2015 11:18 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 23, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Looks like every rally being used as opportunity from insiders to unload more shares. As much as I love their products, I hate to say that I do not love the insider's faith in their own company.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tracycai tracycai Nov 23, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    I want to buy more too but the chart looks terrible. I never believed in chart before but nowadays, hedge fund managers are reading the charts and I have no other choice but also look at charts. There's so support right now. Without a support, the big buy not come in and you have so many sellers ( insider, secondary, people want to ride off their year end loss in tax, etc ). I think Jan 2016 might be a good time to buy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tracycai tracycai Nov 22, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Countries like Germany, France, Japan, China do not give out pre-sale data. 50 Million is U.S only NOT Global. Japan is a HUGE market for SW movies, they have the highest number of SW fans. My friend also told me in Germany, they do not have a lot of movie theaters so you are right, the movie slates for January looks good too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Nov 22, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    All theaters.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just had dinner with a couple of friends who live in Germany and back home for Thanksgiving, When I asked them if they plan to watch the new SW, they said, yes but tickets are sold out for two weeks so we'll wait after Christmas. When I asked them if SW is a big deal in Germany, they were like, are you kidding me? I went back to check Avatar's box office data, it was not a big hit in Germany. Also, Avatar opening weekend has 3560 screens while SW will have more than 4000 in US alone. To accommodate demand, a number of theaters are staying open round the clock during the movie’s first week and adding screenings at offbeat hours such as 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. Another thing I'd like to point out is that some of scenes in Avatar makes people a bit dizzy, myself included, very rarely people go watch twice. You have to take that into account too. The DVD sales and Netflix streaming is also a big source of residual income. How many of your friends actually bought Avatar DVD after seeing it in theater and how of them have the Star Wars DVDs?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    May the Force be with DIS investors

    by tracycai Nov 18, 2015 3:20 PM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 18, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Thanks for the suggestion. However, there are two things I'd like you to know. 1) I am a woman. 2) I am vey long on the stock not options. I use options to see what smart money are doing which is important as we both know, the big boys control the market not us.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Grinding higher with low volume is actually a good sign. Sellers are drying out. Someone bought a huge lot of Dec 18 $118 call options. Put options very low volume. The smart money does not even bother to buy puts to protect their long position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next stop $120

    by tracycai Nov 18, 2015 12:06 PM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 18, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    May the Force be with DIS investors. I am happy to pay tax. Forbes just pen an article about Star Wars won't surpass Avatar. Remember last V-day when they released "Fifty Shades of Grey"? Critics thinks it would be a flop and nobody would admit they want to see it, it was a blockbuster and huge sell out. The first week, they sold 400 million, I was like, you better be kidding. Then I realized that people are people, they are curious, you can tell them, don't watch it, it is really bad, but they still go watch it, because of the hype and the popularity. I am confident this new Star Wars movie will set a new record regardless of reviews.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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