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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

tracycai 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2015 10:56 AM Member since: Jun 2, 1999
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  • Reply to

    panara vs chipotle

    by bronxrealtyco Apr 16, 2015 9:53 PM
    tracycai tracycai Apr 17, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    I don't have CMG stock but I have PNRA. So I am PNRA fan not CMG. However, CMG has better profit margin than PNRA. Unfortunately PNRA's main ingredient is not rice and beans which are much cheaper than bread. Also, CMG offers very few selections, therefore it is easier to manage and cost effective. I always think this Mexican food crave is a fad, but it has it's legs. Puzzling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Apr 16, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    I disagree. They borrowed 500 Million, you don't borrow money and then not use it, it will hurt your credit. It is not apple or msft, who has tons of cash on hand, PNRA is borrowing money to do the buy back, it has to be serious.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It is in no man's land. The support is $168 where the buy back will kick in. Risk is less than $14, reward is $20 or more. Do the math.

  • Reply to

    Ackman vs Icahn

    by emilylane1980 Mar 16, 2015 12:05 AM
    tracycai tracycai Mar 16, 2015 12:13 AM Flag

    Maybe carl can lend some money to Nu Skin to buy out HLF. 3-5 Billion is a lot of money, but if he has 23 Billion, he can afford it, at least he can get a kick out of it. If I have 23 Billion, I don't mind losing a couple Billions if I am 80-something, hey, but that's me.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Feb 8, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    I don't have any position in Yelp the stock. However, as a frequent Yelper and business owner myself, I discovered that although Yelp is still the number review site, they have yet to re-establish their reputation as the trustworthy company. With both Google and Facebook reduce it's ad rate in a heated competition over mobil advertisement, it is hardly surprising that Yelp will be forced to reduce the rate as well, it will certainly hurt their bottom line. I wouldn't want to short it either, with 3B market cap, you just don't want to wake up with the news that GOOG made an offer.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    User growth is decelerating.....

    by moneynow27 Feb 6, 2015 7:51 AM
    tracycai tracycai Feb 6, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    This quarter makes it clear that Twitter's success isn't necessarily tied to Twitter the product. It has a whip smart ad sales team that will figure out whats to make money from tweets regardless of how many people are actively using Twitter.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/twitter-had-terrible-quarter-user-142000637.html

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tracycai tracycai Feb 5, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    They just inked a big deal with Google, it is possible that this will brings them new users for rest of 2015. The bottom line is that they beat both top line and bottom line and beat big.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I don't think people like to go to Twitter for search but if they google something and twitter came up, they'll go there and eventually they'll get used to twitter, meaning bring in new customers. The more difficult task is how to make more profit on existing customer, they figured that out.

  • Reply to

    Why did Google go up in after hours ?

    by sootagain Jan 29, 2015 8:20 PM
    tracycai tracycai Jan 29, 2015 10:19 PM Flag

    The miss is already baked in, it is to be expected. So the miss is not a big deal because share price is already beaten down due to very low expectations. However, any good news, like the indication of a possible stock buyback or dividend would give it a pop.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Chen Deserves A...

    by sonickdeathmonkey Dec 19, 2014 10:44 AM
    tracycai tracycai Dec 19, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    My understanding is that the stock is trading with growth perspective and momentum. Cash flow is not that important in trader's eye. Why would Amazon, a company never made any money, trading at such ridiculous multiple and it is still holding it's $300? Why would APPLE, a company has huge cash were traded at very low price one year ago when Wall Street decided the growth story ended, APPLE only strikes back after iphone6. For Blackberry' story, Chen needs to sell Wall Street the growth will be back, not the cash in his bank. If we are investing in Cash, we can buy HYG, PFF, TLT, to name a few. Even VZ, T. They have more cash in bank and pay good dividend.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • It is no fun to be bullied by one of the richest company in the world. Google re-direct it's frustration over Facebook to Amazon. I guess Larry decided Jeff Bezos is to be trifled with while failed his fight with Mark Zuckerberg. Too bad I am long GOOG, but at least I short AMAZON. Peace!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • If you are fund manager, like The Growth Fund of American ( AGTHX ), what would you do to your fund allocation before year end report? Institutions usually do a large fund swap before year end. Would you sell some AMZN and buy some stocks that has stellar return this year ( i.e. AAPL, YHOO, INTC, MSFT ) so that AMZN will disappear from your top 10 holdings on the annual report you have to sent out to your major clients next Jan? This is the main reason why GOOG kept dropping as well. They don't want GOOG or AMZN on the list. This is why at the end of each year, the outperforms goes up more. They just have to add these, no choice. On the other hand, it does not play in AMZN's favor that it has very little retain investors in it. With retail investors, they are more emotional about particular company or CEO, you will find retail investors steadfastly refuse to sell one share of AMZN just because they love the company and/or the CEO. However, with the institution investors, it is all about getting more clients, all that matters is just one thing, the return rate.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • While competitors KR and SWY were in red for the day. It tells me that the big boys wanted it to stay afloat above $45 key level. It will fluctuate but the trend is upward ( for now ).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Keep Whole Foods in the matress!

    by georgesickler Nov 6, 2014 10:06 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 10, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    Whole Foods Market® and Instacart Partner to Offer One-Hour Delivery across 15 Major U.S. Cities. This is in time for the upcoming holiday season. This will add to both top and bottom lines for the forth quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    35 Million Shares Short

    by optiondog Nov 7, 2014 2:53 PM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 10, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Cold winter helps super market, hurt restaurants.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Trend change

    by tracycai Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 7, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    I don't know if you were referring to me, if not, my apologies. I shop at WFM at least once a week, the one I visit ( Dedham, MA ) has huge wine selections, they brew their own coffee, amazing salad bar, it is one of my favorite place. I only buy stocks if I love the underlying company, if you don't have faith in the underlying company, you will bail as soon as you hear some bad news and this is what Wall Street big boys want, isn’t it, to play our head. I bought aapl stock in 2003 and I have never sold a share, only add to it. I love AAPL and it’s stock, I only sell them when I stopped liking them, which could happen, but for now, I am sticking to both AAPL and WFM. I used to be a big fan of COH, I like their bags and everything about them, last year, I stopped liking them, the bags gets uglier and quality goes downhill, it is when I sold all my COH stock.

  • Reply to

    Trend change

    by tracycai Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 7, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    The same as SBUX uses K-cup and Keurig machine for catalyst. I agree with you that people shop at Whole Foods for experience, however, it doesn't change the fact that offer online shopping will enhance the experience by giving people more convenience. Next year, they will start to offer reward program, similar to SBUX's, I believe they are doing what has worked for SBUX.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Trend change

    by tracycai Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 7, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    I believe in old days, WFM is grossly overpriced. But in the last few years, especially since last year, they have marked down their prices significantly due to fierce competition. With that said, it is not necessarily a good thing to stock price, it hurt their bottom line.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Trend change

    by tracycai Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 7, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    I would never buy WFM if I have never been there. My trading rule is never buy a stock that you don't know about.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Trend change

    by tracycai Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    tracycai tracycai Nov 7, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    I don't know where you shop but in Boston area, the only decent place that is much cheaper than WFM is Trader Joe's, as much as I love TJ, I can not do one stop shop there. The major competitors like Wagman's, Stop and Shop, their organic products are not much cheaper than WFM, for example, organic apple, when WFM on sale, you can get $2.50 per lb, wild caught salmon, scallops, etc. If you read through their ER, the main reason their margin is only 6% ( same as safeways ) is because they are aggressively doing promotions, especially fruit and veggies. Yes, you can always find ridiculously priced items like olive oil, cheese, etc, but all in all, I don't see being ripped off by WFM as vs their competitors like Wagman's. I have heard more people complain about Wagman's than WFM.

    Sentiment: Buy

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