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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

tracycai 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 15, 2014 10:00 PM Member since: Jun 2, 1999
  • tracycai tracycai Sep 15, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    Even companies like TSLA will develop their own technology, they will still use sensors and subcomponents from other companies, i.e. MBLY. If Toyota announces partnership with MBLY, stock will pop. I would be worried to short, maybe buying puts if it is not too expensive, any partnership announcement, new or extend will pop the stock. It is like a timely bomb.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It would be cool that you can use Apple Pay to buy things on Twitter. It is a win win for both Apple and Twitter, not great for Amazon as most Amazon customers have their credit card information stored so Amazon. On top of that, you can use Twitter on the watch, you know many of my friends ban their kids looking at their phones while going out for dinner, etc. But now the kids can look at the watch, mom, I am checking time. :}

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The Fire, released in late July, is an expensive venture for Amazon. Thousands of employees worked on it for four years. Analysts initially expected sales of one million to two million units in the first year. But in reviews on Amazon’s site, customers said the parts that were different were not necessarily good, and the parts that were good — call clarity, for one thing — were not enough to outweigh things like a short battery life and a tendency to overheat. And there were other issues: “If you use this phone, you are inviting Amazon to know all the details of your life.” --- I know Wall Street loves to give Jeff & Co the pass, the king can do whatever the heck he wanted to do and it is always A-Okay. There is a takeaway from this phone flop, when Bezo started a *war*, he normally wins, i.e. Kindle, Amazon Prime, gobble up Diaper.com, Zappo.com, you name it, he's on a roll, you can say that he does not make money but all of the things he did has been working in the sense of bringing good review and hope, but like Roger Federal of the Tennis Ace, he can win one gram slam after one, the man is untouchable, once he starts to stumble, it becomes more and more difficult. This is the first major flop of Jeff & Co and I am not sure if Finally the wall street's patient is wearing thin with their forever darling.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Market manipulators must pay up here.

    by kopach Sep 9, 2014 9:43 PM
    tracycai tracycai Sep 9, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    Check out this article from NY Times regarding the Amazon Fire Phone. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/09/technology/amazon-struggling-fire-phone.html?_r=0

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Here is competition

    by randy.ramusen Sep 9, 2014 5:45 AM
    tracycai tracycai Sep 9, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    I hope you do know for momo stocks, fundamental does not matter, it is all about the hype. Did you read the news hit wire yesterday that GS owns 17% of MBLY? Not just underwriter, GS is a the big investment, do you think GS would let it drop before they unload? Stock is about if you can find a buy to buy from you at a higher price, people often forget what they are buying when they know they can sell to another buyer with higher price to make a profit. As long as the music is still on, the stock will keep going up. When the music stop, nobody knows, but if you short here, it could be another 100% run, would you be able to sustain the pain and not waver, it is tough, I have been there with Amazon, it is not a good feeling. I ended up having to throw in my towel for the AMZN short because it just kept going up even I think it is crazy.

  • tracycai tracycai Aug 22, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    It depends on if Wall Street define it as *Value Play* or *Momentum Play*. For the latter, none of things you said matters. Time will tell, so far, it is defined as *Momentum Play*, i.e. momo stocks. TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, to name a few, all with high multiples, all trade well for long. Welcome to the Wall Street, sometimes number does not matter, it is A GAME. Cheers!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Many shorted at $28 - $29, once they started to cover, trend reverse, $30+.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    this stock is over 30 times NEXT years revenue

    by csco_brat Aug 21, 2014 6:21 PM
    tracycai tracycai Aug 21, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    Really? By what matrix? Even more expensive than the Greatest Jeff & Co ( a.k.a. Amazon ) ? I am double shocked. Last time I checked, MBLY actually makes money last quarter. Very high profit margin, scalable and patterned. I agree that 7B market cap is a bit over the top, but hey, what do I know, all I know is it is a great company that makes good money, the product is not easily to be copied, you need years of data to support your safety issue, so for a big guy like GOOG or BMW who wanted to play, they better off buy stakes in MBLY than re-invent the wheel. Someone says insider sold at $25, they are not allowed to sell, it is in lock out period. On Sep 4, you might report bad ER or guide down, but in long term, this is a great tech company.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I noticed that in the past, if YHOO goes up a lot, the second day it will sell off a little. This is the first time in long time that YHOO is up two days in a row with good volume, I noticed the short interest increased, so even with more people are shorting, price is still holding above trend line, so far so good.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Aug 19, 2014 1:02 AM Flag

    Not everyone believes it, the short interest increased, even on CNBC's fast money, only one guy is promoting YHOO, others were a bit mumble jumble. I think the the sentiment is still pretty negative.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Aug 18, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    I have been holding YHOO for a while and kept hearing this *YHOO will go to $40 and above for a few months* up to a point I wanted to throw in the towel, like, up and down, frustrating. Then you think about it, if big boys know this will run up to $40 right before ipo, they probably wait right before it started to move to jump and use the cash to play other stocks before then. It all makes sense now, I am glad that I did not sell, the time is now. The force is with us.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Aug 18, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    This is the same move as APPL iphone 6 launch. We all know iphone 6 is coming but the real move was from last few weeks, people like to wait for the last minute to jump in, maybe the big boys like the instant gratification. YHOO will run up to $40 and above before BABA ipo which is around labor day Sep 5 or Sep 6.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This is very interesting. When you look at the most actively traded stocks today, most of them were traded below average volume, I figured that most people are still on summer vacation at the beach. However, YHOO today traded above average volume. Strong push above $37 and stayed above $37 throughout the day. The chart looks beautiful, no bad news ( aside from Russia but that is not YHOO related news ) would come out from now and Alibaba IPO. The risk/reward favors reward. We either push through $38 and then take out $40 or drop back to $34.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    KORS... ??? Meh.

    by the_savvy_monkey Aug 9, 2014 8:10 AM
    tracycai tracycai Aug 9, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    I completely agree. It is like the hey days of UA/NKE. There were chatters about UA will KILL NKE. Well, they didn't, they do very well, NKE did a big come back. Both can co-exist and both can thrive. I was surprised so may naysayers came out and call Coach an old dying company. The media kept reporting how KORS and KATE are eating COH's lunch, they fail to report 1) This is already priced in the stock price, if not more. 2) COH has very good cash flow, solid balance sheet, very low debt, high bond rating and good design team which is very hard to *be killed*. It is JCP for the manner. Time will tell. I am holding for the long run, three years at least and I will buy for every dip. 3-4% dividend and large buy back program ( 840 millions remaining ), the reward is more than the risk. Don't forget, large short interest, at some point, they have to cover, if stock keeping going up, why would they holding it to pay dividend ( shorts have to pay dividend to longs ), at some point, they will throw in the towel. They refused to do so before ER, hoping to have a disaster ER so they can maximize their profit, but ER did well, so what is their hope? Next ER being a disaster, wait for three months, worry about buy out or any good news ( like monthly report that sales is picking up ).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracycai by tracycai Aug 8, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    KORS were considered a HK brand in China because it's founder and headquater were based in HK, Chinese people prefer foreign brands, COH was considered American brand which is a bit more cool than HK brand. Just something to share. And yes, margin is good in China. It is not okay to lose US market but if COH can gain more momentum in China, the bottom line will improve.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    French Company?

    by incompetent98 Aug 8, 2014 2:00 PM
    tracycai tracycai Aug 8, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    If you look at the order size, it is large firm that are buying, not us, moms and pops. They have hated COH for so long and all the sudden, start to buy up, if it is a pump and dump, they could have picked a better candidate, the retail investors do not play COH. They are in those momo stocks or big names like apple goog intc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    French Company?

    by incompetent98 Aug 8, 2014 2:00 PM
    tracycai tracycai Aug 8, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    If you look at the chart, 50 days moving average is $36.20 if we close above that, next stop is around $39 and then big gap up. And of course, if Russia gets messy, all bets off but it is not COH specific issue. ER is just out, what is next shoe to drop? I could not think of anything that could the stock to crash. But the upside is 1) short covering. 2) activist investors take stake 3) buy out 4) stock buy back. you name it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Aug 8, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    If you look at the new bags from KORS, it is the same old, don't get me wrong, I still love KORS but seems like that are running out new ideas, that is why they are discounting the bags too, My gf was upset that TJX sells KORS now, I think COH will get some market share back from KORS, not all, it is tough sector but slowly, COH will get some shares back and when that happens, stock rally. You get good dividend while waiting, the risk reward in favor of reward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Even if the rumor turns out to be false, that opens the door for buyers. At 9B market cap, big cash on balance sheet, very little debt, it is attractive. Maybe Buffet can take a look too. Yes, they are crushed by KORS and KATE, but don't forget, if not, they would be trading at $60s not $30s, it is priced in already. From my own experience, I used to buy Coach bags, then I switched to Kors and Kate myself last year because COH is not cool anymore, but guess what, I switched back, why, KORS is not cool anymore when every other gals is wearing them and you have to pay a premium for the similar bag, then I went to Coach store, hey, they have some nice stuff with much less price than KORS, so why would stick with Kors? Consumers are fickle, they switch back and forth, but Coach has figured out how to source, they have a good design team, in long run, they will come back, if JCP can come back, why not COH?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tracycai tracycai Aug 3, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    100% agree! You DO need five years data to be approved by the state to get your *license* to sell the technology, so even there is a new comer, he needs five years to enter the real market. Good luck find someone who's willing to fund you millions to have a shot at ME five years later.

    Sentiment: Buy

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