A week or two from IMPRESS results - who cares if it's in the 40s next week??? Like you said - big news trumphs all....and this is the biggest of big.
Moved from $60 to $80 while pocketing $2.25. Shoulda done it a few weeks ago and pocketed $4 but it looked like $60 was a snap
And actually, it is completely irrelevant what it does between now and the IMPRESS news release. It will either be $200+ or $30- before you or I can react ...and there's nothing between now and then that's going to change that.
Funny thing is: Apr80 calls barely budged. Today was...irrelevant.
Did not NLNK state they get no commission from Merck for ebola sales in Africa? I think you are completely off base if you are emphasizing this over IMPRESS
Yes. I think it levels out at $30 but the initial drop will be higher. Never underestimate how far the shorts could take it nor how quickly.
Just options. I originally had shares and sold calls similar to you but realized the risk reward spread was better just owning calls
I manage my account and assess my own risk/reward. His response was 'please consider selling off some of your Apr60 calls to take money off the table'
I would be very careful about buying the stock on margin. If the study is not stopped for success, it very well could drop to $25 and you could lose everything. If you want to take a flyer, but the Apr80 calls at $3+. That way you know exactly how much you can lose
Again - recognize that I don't have the expertise to analyze this exactly. But here is the email that I sent to my broker this afternoon:
I see the following possibilities:
A) announcement positive by Apr 17. Odds 30%. Make tons. TONS!
B) announcement negative by Apr 17. Odds 40%. 5,000 Apr30 puts repay most of the money spent on calls.
C) no announcement and no shorts by Apr 17. Odds 20%. Stock can't help but be over $60 so Appx 4k Apr60s in the money pay for much of the money spent on calls
D) no announcement by Apr 17 plus weak sector or short raid. Odds 10%. Massive bummer - lose all invested
Based upon what I have read from Mind Craft, JPC and Toadsticker I have no choice but to believe that it stands a good chance. But I'm an engineer, not a medical expert - I cannot assess their assertions other than on an order of magnitude basis.
I can say this - I firmly agree with Mind Craft that the market is mispricing this event. I saw a 100:1 payoff for a conservatively 1:10 event well over a month ago.
Focus on what we know:
At JPMorgan conference in mid Jan they stated results would be announced this qtr. They did not say the 333rd event had occurred - this means they were anticipating it soon. From this we can estimate an expected reporting time of 6-8 weeks (ie: they say announce this qtr for an event to occur end Jan/early Feb).
During conference call on Feb26, that slid to this qtr or next but that the 333rd event had occurred. Now, in order for them to say maybe this quarter, the event must have occurred more than 6 weeks from qtr end - Feb17 at the latest - but less than 8 weeks from quarter end - so Feb3 at the earliest
Let's average the occurance date to Feb10 and average the reporting time to 7 weeks. The result is: March 31st. That would certainly be consistent with the company saying this qtr or next. The outliers would be two weeks either direction, but we are already past part of the earlier outlier.
May has already been added - Yahoo hasn't picked up on that fact yet