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# AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

tradedollarnut 173 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: May 11, 2001
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#### Guess the Opening Gap - Assuming IMPRESS success

by diyinvesting May 3, 2016 9:53 PM

After all, 6M shorts can't be wrong....

#### dubious distinction

by m20m75ph May 3, 2016 8:51 AM

I'm rooting for \$1.20 so I can buy my shares back

#### No oil exposure

by tradedollarnut Apr 28, 2016 10:46 AM

I don't know that much either but I look at it like a gambler would. Assign probability odds to success and to failure. Then estimate the amount that the stock will change for each of those events. In my opinion if there's failure the stock will lose up to 50%. But if there's success the stock will gain up to 400%. A gambler would say in those circumstances that you should invest provided that you feel the weighted odds of making money exceed the weighted odds of losing. So if you feel there's a 20% chance of success and a 80% chance of failure, the results are:

80% times -50% plus 20% times 400% equals 40% to the positive - well worth a gamble even at a 20% chance of approval. I personally feel it's more like 60% chance of approval this go round. The results of that are:

40% times -50% plus 60% times 400% equals 220% ...such a high number that it's a no brainer to me.

#### Management Optimism

by diyinvesting May 1, 2016 11:32 AM

Look at it like a gambler would. Assign probability odds to success and to failure. Then estimate the amount that the stock will change for each of those events. In my opinion if there's failure the stock will lose up to 50%. But if there's success the stock will gain up to 400%. A gambler would say in those circumstances that you should invest provided that you feel the weighted odds of making money exceed the weighted odds of losing. So if you feel there's a 20% chance of success and a 80% chance of failure, the results are:

80% times -50% plus 20% times 400% equals 40% to the positive - well worth a gamble even at a 20% chance of approval. I personally feel it's more like 60% chance of approval this go round. The results of that are:

40% times -50% plus 60% times 400% equals 220% ...such a high number that it's a no brainer to me.

by reelenuts Apr 30, 2016 11:24 PM

Fingers crossed. Nlnk is extremely overweight in my portfolio.

#### No oil exposure

by tradedollarnut Apr 28, 2016 10:46 AM

They all practically doubled on Friday when NLNK stated they'd be announcing the results of their IMPRESS trial this quarter. Up \$800k for the day :-)

#### Cantor Fitzgerald PT \$62

by rpclflynn Apr 29, 2016 4:36 PM

Our 12-month price target of \$62 is based on a discounted revenue calculation that incorporates \$29 for algenpantucel-L (HyperAcute Pancreas), \$27 for the IDO platform, and \$6 for Ebola program. We reach this composite value through:
 Algenpantucel-L – \$29 per share based on a 10x multiple on our \$619 million revenue estimate in 2019 discounted at 60%
 IDO/TDO platform – \$27 per share, which incorporates a 7x multiple on the value of the candidates today based on the number of clinical trials, strong pipeline, and discovery portfolio of \$1 billion discounted by 35%
 Ebola– \$6 per share for the Ebola program, which reflects the value of the cash as well as the discounted value of the potential revenue stream from royalties of an Ebola vaccine and a contribution from the anticipated cash balance (currently \$198 million as of 12/31/15), and we estimate the company will end the year with \$140+ million in cash (assuming no additional cash raised)

by rpclflynn Apr 29, 2016 2:55 PM

After last year (where they said it would be reported first quarter and then had to go back and say first or second quarter), I doubt they would repeat the same mistake.

#### No oil exposure

by tradedollarnut Apr 28, 2016 10:46 AM

nope. I've met my goals - a stress free summer will be fantastic

by rpclflynn Apr 29, 2016 2:55 PM

And this snippet:

" we have a strong belief the trial is going to be positive."

by rpclflynn Apr 29, 2016 2:55 PM

I like this one from the CEO regarding IMPRESS:

"As you know, this trial is showing remarkably unexpected projected overall median survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis that was seen on the first and second analyses where we estimate that the survival was 30 months from the time of surgery and the trial as a whole which did a great deal longer than has ever been observed in a U.S. trial before."

#### Cantor Fitzgerald PT \$62

by rpclflynn Apr 29, 2016 4:36 PM

Yes a blended number

#### Earnings call

by shortnstocke Apr 29, 2016 9:53 AM

They were rather emphatic that they expect success

#### Earnings call

by shortnstocke Apr 29, 2016 9:53 AM

They did not specify

#### No oil exposure

by tradedollarnut Apr 28, 2016 10:46 AM

Bold is my middle name....

#### IMPRESS: Let's take a vote

by philarius Apr 28, 2016 5:14 PM

My guess is they will announce tomorrow that the 442nd event has occurred and that the clock is ticking on the results

#### No oil exposure

by tradedollarnut Apr 28, 2016 10:46 AM

Yes. All I have is Sxcp and Nlnk. Tons of Nlnk calls just in case.

#### Any Other MLPS ready to bounce...

by k.harris84 Apr 26, 2016 6:08 PM

Love it - huge!