Good comments gocolts. I agree with your comment that "something's going to give sooner rather than later," but not yet necessarily the merger/buyout that is anxiously expected. There are too many unknowns to reliably time the events or the final outcome and that was my main point on this thread. One should not be fooled into believing that the Chairman is illogical; or that GURE is planning to undertake the Gas project alone; or that it must immediately turn over the whole project to experts in NG. The Chairman is very intelligent and a clever manipulator and the CEO is well versed in finance and stock market operations. They are not shareholder friendly mainly because the retail shareholders do not account for much in the type of a game being played. So it is not ignorance or lack of competence which explains their actions or inaction. In fact the opposite is true. Nowhere has it been stated that GURE will undertake this project alone. To the contrary it has been stated that they may seek partnership. But who are the likely partners and why should one believe that the Big Boys do not represent NG interests and a likely partner? If so, then the issue revolves Not around whether GURE should seek expertise and partnership, but on rather "at what price and on what terms?" "At What Price and on What Terms" is the crux of the matter, but since at this stage we know absolutely nothing about the NG reserve and revenue potential, it is impossible to predict the sequence of events and the final outcome, especially the price. Given our knowledge we can only predict the direction which will be eventually some form of partnership or merger/buyout and at much higher prices. This price cannot be predicted in advance and it could be $4.00 or $40.00 depending on the Gas reserve and revenue potential and the dynamics of the rivalry between the Insiders and the Big Boys and how it is finally resolved. Nor can one predict the timing of the final outcome in advance.
On a separate thread elpaso stated:
"I can only conclude that the Chairman "INTENTIONALLY" left of tons of relevant information to confuse the market until he decide what he wants to do next. "
Of course he has and that is supported by his past history. Not making clear statements is not Illogical but the most Logical path he must take if his rivals are the Big Boys. Those are his trump cards which he will play selectively against the Big Boys. Information will be released as it serves HIS purpose and not those of the retail shareholders who play a very insignificant role in this game. Also don't forget that the Chairman is well-connected politically and will not have much problem in getting those permits unless the Big Boys can counter it with similar political muscle. Eventually GURE must seek partnership to proceed as it does not have the expertise nor the resources for an elaborate exploration, extraction, and distribution. That partner may or may not be the Big Boys but the most reasonable and feasible outcome has to be in the direction of a partnership or merger/buyout. In what shape and form and at what price is the major issue. That is an Unknown without knowing the potential revenue. We have absolutely no idea about the NG reserve or revenue potential. Is it in millions or billions? If there are Big Boys, they did not manipulate this stock to pressure the Chairman and eventually buy much of the float just for several million dollars of benefits. The greater is this revenue potential the more it explains the presence of the Big Boys and their tenacity to control the trading and the price. The Big Boys usually get involved in Big Games and for a Big Prize. So at this stage we must admit our ignorance and patiently watch this game as it is played out. It is like a chess game where we as the observers see only each individual move while each move by the two players anticipates a sequence of moves with the rival's reaction built into it.
Don't worry chairmanbarack. I know you want them involved and eventually they may, but it may not be the ones you work for.
I agree brenda. Settling this affair should have not been as complicated as they are making it and obviously their uncompromising and stubborn insistence on returning to business as usual is directed against Tsipras. Although I make lots of money if there is a quick resolution, as a matter of principle I hope Tsipras does not surrender to these greedy usurers and the EU political junta and back off from many of the election promises. Greece needs to carve a new path for its future and returning to past failed policies will not do. This government has energized the majority of hard working Greeks, the true victims of the devastating past elitist policies, to believe that they can regain their sovereignty and play a role in shaping their own destiny. I don't know if they will succeed but I know that it is time for new ideas and new policies.
Why should they care that over 85% of pensioners are over 61 years of age or that around 60% receive less than $889. Why should they care if Greeks become homeless or starve to death? This tragedy began with Greed and with the cooperation of their domestic lackeys and they like to end it with the same insatiated greed that is their only motivation.
elpaso, you have itemized the possible types of information which the Chairman controls and may selectively release. But the Big Boys control the trading of the stock and the Chairman can only temporarily influence the price unless there are highly significant material events which I have listed above. In this model the rivals do not have to have equal weight. So your comment about who has the upper hand is irrelevant so far as the duopoly model is concerned. Just look at the price drop after earnings which should have lifted the price. It was as high as $2.90 AH and dropped to $2.30s which is a rather significant drop when everyone is expecting higher prices. In that little encounter the Big Boys overwhelmed the Chairman. The Chairman has to come forward with better and more substantive information which permanently alters the prospects which according to this model is his only alternative. Moreover, do not discount the possibility of a partnership. Finally, I like to address the dividend/repurchase options discussed on this board. I have traded many Chinese stocks and dividends do not protect the price and in many cases most of the cash will go to the insiders anyway. A serious repurchase plan works much better but in our case it has to be sizable, at least $30M, without a specified price and vigorously implemented (not just promised). In such a case the Big Boys will have to raise the price or transfer their shares to the Chairman which will weaken their hand. It would also generate some confidence in the stock and attract new buyers.
Price went so low on Tuesday that I was able to buyback some really cheap shares. I will buy more if it goes below $1.00.
southern, I am still refining the model but the Prisoner's Dilemma is the most likely case though one cannot disregard Nash or Collusion possibilities. I think the activities in next several months will shed more light on the situation. Although the options look good I have not forgotten your warning about the swings and thinking more of it past several days. Indeed, the nature of the relationship between the two parties, Insiders and the Big Boys, is the million dollar question. It could be the Billion dollar question. This region is rich in gas and that is a proven fact but at this stage the gas reserve and revenue potential from the area under consideration is impossible to determine. It could result in few or $10-$30 million annual net revenue using extremely rough estimates based on the report on the first well, but it could also be the richest reserve ever discovered in the region. We know that there is NG but know absolutely nothing concrete about the potential. These are the trump cards the Chairman holds tightly and may or may not gradually reveal in this high stake game. It is a complicated game in which the retail shareholders play a very insignificant and minor role and for this reason thoroughly ignored in the process--unless the Chairman finds it to his advantage to energize and mobilize them.
In the scenario on this thread by assuming that the two forces, the Insiders and the Big Boys, are independent, one must then consider several other possibilities: 1) the knowledge of potential NG dates back several years; 2) the Big Boys have been around for at least three years and are the past manipulator of the stock by recycling the stock and attempted a buyout by depressing the price and forcing the Chairman to sell at low prices: 3) the new acquisition and public release of the NG news forced the Big Boys to buy much of the float and take control of a significant ownership as well as the trading of the stock. All these possibilities are quite viable if the two forces are assumed to be independent of each other.
Lately I have been treating the GURE situation as a duopoly game theory model with two independent but also interdependent forces. Looking at things from this perspective all actions by one force automatically prompt a reaction by the other. I have assumed that the Insiders control the company information and the Big Boys much of the float and the trading of the stock. These spheres of influence and control are not absolute. The Big Boys may have information or be able to obtain some information that are not publicly known; while the Insiders may be able to influence the price at least temporarily through public release of information. According to this model certain actions by one force can be nullified by the other. If so, then it is the dynamics of the interplay between these forces which will determine short term price movement s, but because of the nature of this interdependent relationship certain assumptions such as a buyout offer and other events suggested by elpaso and gocolts are less likely to happen. For example, a buyout offer of $3.50 by the Insiders can be countered by a buyout offer of $4.00 by the Big Boys or they can simply trade the stock to higher prices such as $4.00, etc. The solution in this case is not known in advance but it will occur at a point where the result (arrangement) is acceptable to both forces and will not prompt a reaction. However, it can be stated with near certainty that this price, though not known, will be at much higher prices than the current price. Given this model, there is also a strong incentive to reach some type of arrangement and work in unison and thus collectively fixed the price which would yield the worst outcome for the retail shareholders.
If you think there are Big Boys who directly entered the game in one day when more than the float traded, you then must understand that the Big Boys are in charge and control the trading of the stock. They can move the price at will in either direction and brought it down well below $2.00 within days after taking a position. But with pending NG and earning report,s and rising bromine price generating _buying interest they allowed the price to rise and thereafter brought it down again. You must understand that in the light of positive material events the worst thing that can happen to a stock and discourage buying while encouraging sell-off is for the price to drop sharply. Nothing can destroy interest in a stock more than a drop in price after positive news when everyone is expecting price appreciation. In this way the Big Boys soundly declare that they are in charge of trading and can move the stock against positive fundamental forces which will dampen both retail and institutional interest and further strengthens their position.
I do not yet know the relationship between the Chairman and the Big Boys, but management's history is an history of total neglect of shareholders interest and fulfilling his fiduciary responsibility. He works not for the shareholders but for himself and the insiders and his moves are dictated by this interest. The nature of this relationship is of utmost importance. If they are independent forces, then the Chairman can only move the stock _temporarily through selective release of information but he can never force much higher prices (including dividend and repurchase plan) except the following cases: 1) outstanding material information such as additional NG discoveries; 2) an important partnership; and 3) a buyout offer by the insiders. If the two forces are independent, then the recent announcement are about the Chairman publicly addressing the Big Boys rather than the shareholders stating his expectation about Big Boys Offer.
05/19/2015; 9:50 AM
This Friday or next Monday.
qqq, those who hallucinate always adamantly insist that what they see is real. That is a malice at best remedied with medication which may or may not work. If you have tried it then it has not worked in your case. Nevertheless, I wish you the best and fast recovery. Groucho Marx also said: "I could dance with you until the cows come home. On second thought I'd rather dance with the cows until you come home."
Good comments elpaso and insightful review of the situation and the recent developments with the understanding that the knowledge of NG is old and potential reserve possibly very significant. However, when we see a buyout offer (sooner or later) depends on the nature of the relationship between the Insiders and the Big Boys. If the Big Boys are working independent of the Chairman and are after the whole pie, an offer of $3.50 by the Insiders will not be satisfactory to them though it may force the Big Boys hand and even initiate a buyout bidding war. Of course, eventually some type of arrangement can be reached between the two forces but at this juncture the nature of their relationship is of utmost importance. Much of the past and present behavior can be explained by having this knowledge which also facilitate an insight into the future. That is an issue I have been working on and though I have some new information on the matter it may take at least another month before I have a more reliable answer.
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece is near a cash-for-reforms deal with its euro zone partners and the International Monetary Fund that would help it meet debt repayments next month, the country's finance minister said on Monday, as worries persist over a possible bankruptcy.
Athens has been defending its "red lines" in talks with lenders, refusing to yield on further pension cuts and more labor market liberalization to clinch a deal that would release remaining bailout aid, despite a pressing cash crunch.
"I think we are very close (to a deal) ... let's say in a week," Yanis Varoufakis told Star TV channel late show Ston Eniko. "Another currency is not on our radar, not in our thoughts."
Greece faces payments of about 1.5 billion euros to the IMF next month and 6.7 billion euros to redeem government bonds that are held by the European Central Bank and mature in July and August.
To give itself breathing space, it has proposed Europe's bailout fund pay for 27 billion euros of its bonds held by the European Central Bank, which start maturing in July and August, Varoufakis said, pledging to repay the fund over a longer term.
The move was the latest attempt by the outspoken minister, who has been sidelined in negotiations with creditors, to revive the idea of a debt swap to help Athens manage its upcoming debt payments but has not received any interest from lenders....
or you are another reincarnation of Groucho Marx since you are a funny comedian and a clown: "I never forget a face, but in your case I'll be glad to make an exception."
elpaso, you are beginning to understand how this management works. Of course, they are dishonest and shareholder unfriendly, but ask yourself WHY? Would they be very transparent and shareholder friendly and work hard to lift the price through so called dividend and stock repurchase if they were interested in a buyout? The answer is: NO, NO, NO. They would behave exactly as they have been behaving so far. Now consider the possibility of the Big Boys in the game. Some have attempted to explain the stock price and trading behavior by attributing it to daytraders. It was the day traders that caused the protracted decline in the price despite consecutive positive earning reports and accumulating cash in 2014; or daytraders who suddenly traded over 30M shares in one day; or daytraders who brought the price down today after a good report, etc. The idea of daytraders or shorts (unsupported by short data) having caused these movements can only be believed by amateurs and novices. It is a fantasy that is often sold when there are unexplainable price and volume movements; or to detract from the real cause of those movements. One does not have to be very experienced to see that it was not the daytraders who brought the price down today. If you discard this fantasy then you will clearly see the possibility of the Big Boys. If there are Big Boys then ask yourself what are they after? Certainly not higher prices if they are going for a merger/buyout. Third, ask yourself if this stock is manipulated and WHY? Generally the stock of a financially sound company is manipulated against all reason and rationale when there is capital injection or a merger/buyout interest. From my perspective all evidence, though circumstantial, point in the direction of a merger/buyout on the cheap. Alternative explanations that fail to reasonably address and explain the management's behavior, the trading behavior, and the price and volume movements are no alternatives at all.