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Walter Investment Management Corp. Message Board

trader431 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2012 12:44 AM Member since: Apr 13, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Is it next Apple?

    by trader431 Aug 14, 2012 12:57 PM
    trader431 trader431 Aug 15, 2012 12:44 AM Flag

    Thanks for explanation. I think it makes sense on numbers for P/E and P/Book mostly because of LBO. Let's see, I still think it is a quite overpriced and a bit over bought. I think it would be important to see if it can stay profitable in 2013.

    For competitors, I just went through Thomas Reuters report : BLDR, TREX, APOG, CSTE. I agree, that HW runs lot of different operations so hard to define exact industry it belongs too.

  • Reply to

    Is it next Apple?

    by trader431 Aug 14, 2012 12:57 PM
    trader431 trader431 Aug 14, 2012 3:19 PM Flag

    Understood, but you have to understand case by case bases. I have shorted on 52 week low and had long position on 52 week high, and I have made money and lost money about 50/50.

    The question is what underlying circumstances make this stock eligible for P/E 66, and Price/Book: 300+.

    I checked all other stocks in same industry and none come even close to such numbers.

  • trader431 by trader431 Aug 14, 2012 12:57 PM Flag

    let me start with saying I am short on this position and I am not much in loss as I just initiated position today, and I am well prepared to short it till 8.50. However I just don't understand this stock.

    P/E - this year they are in loss, and next year 64.
    P/Book - 300+

    I have seen people being called almost crazy when they are buying stocks P/E - 20+, and P/book - 3. But this is beyond the limits I can ever imagine.

    I can understand if it is next Apple or pharma with drug in pipeline, but don't understand for this company. Even housing market going up, we know we are in very slow recovery for next 5 yrs. Plus lot of people think we are close to new mild recession than booming recovery.

    Why HW is so priced? I would love to know what is Fundamental and Technical analysis behind current price $7 and $8.50 price target set by a few analyst?

  • trader431 by trader431 Jul 24, 2012 10:50 PM Flag

    I had good luck with short term profit on stock with good fundamentals and RSI below 20. But this has been definitely beast, getting down on no matter if market goes up or down. This is really oversold and there is not much hope for going up.

    If it misses earning on Aug 7, we will definitely go below 7. If it is good earning, there will be no upside till Feb..

    I hope management comes out with some better news soon.

  • Reply to

    INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

    by docteurnot Jul 16, 2012 4:50 PM
    trader431 trader431 Jul 20, 2012 4:38 PM Flag

    I have long position in this stock at 11.07, and as you can see I am loosing money everyday. I just don't feel it is right to sell it now. Just personal attachment.

    With such high decline, just from tech indicator side, I thought it might go higher at least if earning is good.

    However, I see the point that HLC can also deny the accreditation as Ashford has grown into some beast which HLC would not have expected. WASC is not going to accept for a long time.

    I was hoping to hold it till Feb 13th, but not sure. With what docteurnot said, if student loan (~50% of cash) goes away on Feb 13th, then it is just matter of time that it will hit $2 or $3 and it will declare bankruptcy.

    Executive team already has made money so they should be just fine with closing down the company.

    Let me know your thoughts.

  • I did my own research and had invested decent chunk of money in FTE for 6 to 15 months. I did my own research and found it is very good investment at this point based on P/E, book value and CF. Dividend are also great if price doesn't go up in a year or so. I think only bad thing I can think of is declining revenue (200M) which is very small compared to the Euro recession we have been. It will eventually settle down, but FTE can easily survive 2 or even more years of recession and can thrive very well when Europe is back in business.

    I would like to get your opinion to understand risk and rewards for FTE investment. Just want to make sure I didn't miss anything in my research. I don't mind taking a loss as long as it is factored in my current research.

    Thanks in advance.

  • trader431 trader431 Dec 6, 2011 8:42 AM Flag

    Ah, no mean to be racist but India needs bargain in everything. That's very short term view from my perspective, cutting corners on fertilizer and then not enough crop, not enough food for millions of people in India...

    There is lot of land which is not utilized for any purpose (or can not be utilized without such forced fertilizer), with this fertilizer they can grow lot of cheap crops (e.g. crops for animal feeding or biofuel..) But they want to instead bargain, kill the market and cut the corners.. do what is best for short term..

    Just a thought.

  • Reply to

    Question on book value and long term investment

    by trader431 Nov 23, 2011 2:10 PM
    trader431 trader431 Nov 23, 2011 3:07 PM Flag

    oh yes, I meant the same. good day trading or week candidate for 20 to 50 cent play. Basically any bad news in market and this stock goes below 3.10 level defined by deutsche bank, which has become pivot point for weekly play.

  • Reply to

    Question on book value and long term investment

    by trader431 Nov 23, 2011 2:10 PM
    trader431 trader431 Nov 23, 2011 2:58 PM Flag

    Thanks for your reply. Really appreciate it. Wish you have a great thanksgiving weekend.

    I don't know anything more than what is publicly available, and buying on take over speculation would be last in my priority as already listed. I agree it good candidate for 20/50 cent play for next 3 to 4 months and not for long term blind investment. I gotta leave the country for quite a long time in near future, but considering euro crisis and volatility in this stock, I might just keep my money safe as cash instead of casino bet on CEDC.

    Thanks again.

    Trader

  • I plan to do long term investment (1 year +) on this. So far I have been going in and out of these shares with short profit here and there, but plan to go long from here.

    I see lot of news on it becoming $5 or even $6 stock, which in my opinion would take at least 3 or 4 good quarters. One bad quarter and whole thing will fall apart.

    Pros:
    - history. Historical price are just too good to avoid.
    - It has been proven that CEDC can generate strong profit and as revenue still increasing, profit will rise as they find good margin.
    - book value : 0.3 which is good (and bad in cons:)
    - Restructuring of the company seems to be almost done (hopefully). goodwill, closing plants,
    - Take over target


    Cons:
    - Goodwill and intagible assets makes up most of the book value. That's just insane. You can not really sell Goodwill and intangible assets to get cash, isn't it? If company is near bankruptcy and close to deadline on paying load, it can get ugly, and it might not worth $1 as Jeffries predicted.
    - Debt. Ah, billions of dollars of loan. I know all company in this industry carries hugh loan but this is really concerning
    - Missing earning estimates from last 3/4 quarters, and trend usually continues...

    I still think considering the price $3, it is good time to go long on this. What you fellas think? Is it good time or should wait for one or more quarters to see how it turn around? My worries is that once it turn around, it will be too late for me to add position (from both time, as I am leaving stock market for one year and it will be too expensive for me to buy for long term).

    Let me know if you think of any pros or cons or any points I might have missed which might help me to make the decision.

  • Reply to

    Is it time to quit?

    by trader431 Nov 22, 2011 10:20 AM
    trader431 trader431 Nov 22, 2011 11:04 AM Flag

    I am out with a big loss, I don't have guts to see it falling another dollar or two. I am sure it will go up soon as I am out. Good luck to you'll.

  • trader431 by trader431 Nov 22, 2011 10:20 AM Flag

    Made one mistake staying through the earnings and second was to buy on margins. Lost big on this stock, but not huge as I bough yesterday close price at 11.38 based on fundamentals and overall market expectation. Well, now it is really going down. And if we look at last few quarters, after each missed earning it goes down by 30 to 40%. It is already at 11% down, is it going to be another 20%?

    What you fellas think? I think lately wall street is just crazy. Earlier, after some sell off you could expect some buying, but nowadays, sell off are followed by even more severe sell offs. I hope it is not going to price range of $8.

    Balance sheet is still showing very strong. Compared to other Chinese game stock, this is really low book value and P/E. What would be new book value based on these earning? let me know if someone already has calculated.

    Thanks,
    Trader

  • Reply to

    Maybe I am early, but it is time

    by vol2smile Jul 10, 2011 9:11 PM
    trader431 trader431 Jul 11, 2011 2:08 PM Flag

    Man, I wish you are true.

    However, today market is tumbling like anything and this stock doesn't move down at all. Volume is also record low today. This shows pretty high strength in my opinion. We should see another dollar up anytime. Not sure when this will go down. I hope I can know the news behind the strength.

  • Reply to

    looking for suggestion

    by trader431 Jul 6, 2011 4:09 PM
    trader431 trader431 Jul 8, 2011 2:41 PM Flag

    Agreed on my lack of knowledge but there seem to be something more than chart here. There are some news which is probably only known to few investor. I don't mind taking loss but would be still good to know what is driving this stock up constantly from past few weeks.

    I have shorted at 23.56, I will check for another dollar up and I am on my way for becoming short squeeze victim.

    Thanks,

    Trader.

  • Reply to

    looking for suggestion

    by trader431 Jul 6, 2011 4:09 PM
    trader431 trader431 Jul 8, 2011 10:57 AM Flag

    Today market is going really down due to job reports but Mr. WAC is not moving down at all. Can someone please shed some lights on?

    - Are we looking into some type of merger in near future?
    - How come ugly job market will help WAC?

    This stock is definitely puzzling me. It is showing very high strength, which I am unable to understand.

    Trader.

  • I have small short position in WAC for short term investment considering over bought position. It seems like it has long term growth due to acquisition. However, I think for short term it does seem like going for correction for $1 or so. That's just my feeling, don't have concrete evidence to support it.

    I was looking for some advise from experts here on what should be entry and exit signal for this stock. Housing is douple dip, should not cause this stock to go down? Let me know what you think I should keep eye on.

    Thanks,

    Trader..

  • Reply to

    Looking for ideas

    by trader431 Jun 22, 2011 3:47 PM
    trader431 trader431 Jun 29, 2011 12:10 PM Flag

    Thanks all for your input. Couldn't resist myself to take some profit in this rally.

    60k shares averaged at 11.98 - just got out at 12.65. For now I am happy with 40k profit.

  • Reply to

    Looking for ideas

    by trader431 Jun 22, 2011 3:47 PM
    trader431 trader431 Jun 23, 2011 9:56 AM Flag

    Thanks all. I believe stock price is definitely going down based on economy, june gloom, inventory and steel price. I am still in and averaging down for another month. Hope to see it come back around end of the year. I will certainly stick to this stock as passive buyer.

    If I make money with this stock, I will post it.

  • trader431 by trader431 Jun 22, 2011 3:47 PM Flag

    All,

    I got in SID considering it is very cheap at this level. During last few days, DOW recovered little bit but SID is just not improving. It is just going down and down.

    Is there any major news (steel consumption or anything) would drive this stock up? or it is dead for another few months.

    I strongly believe it should not lower any further (at most 11.50ish) and should at least travel back to 13 or 13.50 considering the oversold level.

    Let me know what you'all think. I am doing active research on this to see if I should get out at this point to stop further loss, or keep it for a while and do more buying at this point.

    Thanks in advance.

  • Reply to

    Opinion

    by trader431 May 24, 2011 3:44 PM
    trader431 trader431 May 25, 2011 4:45 PM Flag

    Volume is going low on upside movement. My guts feeling is that we should see top in very near future. 25 to 25.50 and then it should go back to 22 - 23, and then it should go back up again if positive earning.

WAC
17.59-0.02(-0.11%)May 1 4:02 PMEDT