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United States Natural Gas ETF Message Board

trader537 196 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: May 1, 2008
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  • trader537 trader537 5 hours ago Flag

    I care. I live in NYC suburbs, the two of my children and my grandson live in Manhattan. If this was a regular snowfall, I’d say - well it’s winter. But when the forecast said – a historic storm never seen before in the NE and 3-4 feet of snow – I care.
    Thankfully, it looks like the worst is over in NYC area, not too bad, no more than 5-6” and I do not feel any wind.
    But Boston area, according to the forecast, is yet to see the worst of this storm. I do not have any family in Boston, but guess what – I care.

  • trader537 trader537 Jan 26, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I am about 20 miles NW of midtown Manhattan. The snowfall started this morning. I wouldn't call it a storm just yet, but the expectation is about 2 feet accumulation over the next two days. If it ends up with just shoveling the snow, it will not be that bad. If we start losing power and communication lines, it' may get a lot worse. ATM I do not see any reasons to panic. Stay tuned...

  • Reply to

    Question

    by tannbechard Jan 26, 2015 10:40 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 26, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    Kathy, the key difference is "equity" vs. "futures contracts" on a commodity, namely - natural gas.
    As an analogy, speaking very roughly, it's identical to PM miners vs. PMs
    GASL - The investment seeks 300% investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield (before the fund's fees and expenses) of an equity (!!!) index called the ISE-REVERE Natural Gas Index.
    UGAZ - The investment seeks to replicate 300% performance, net of expenses, of natural gas. The trust will invest in futures contracts (!!!) on natural gas traded on the NYMEX that is the near month contract to expire.

  • Reply to

    GDX limit order in for $21.50

    by bighorn_50b Jan 23, 2015 12:09 PM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 26, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    Happy belated birthdays to both of you!!!
    Farmer, how old is your son now, must be close to two?
    When I was 49 yo, my son was finishing his MBA and my daughter just started college. What a stressful year it was.

  • Reply to

    Check out ctcm

    by tannbechard Jan 25, 2015 8:28 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 25, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    Thanks for posting this Kathy. Could be a very interesting play. The stock was hit pretty hard by decline of the Russian market. The books are not the best I've ever seen but pretty solid, given condition of the Russian market/economy they actually look very good. Hell of a lot better than MLPs I am paying a lot of attention to lately. Plenty of Institutional investors holding total of around 15% of the stock.
    There is something else to be said about the dividends paid by this company. They pay dividends consistently since March 2010 and outside of the anomaly of $.32 cents dividend paid in Nov 2010 that followed by lower distribution, they never cut the dividend in over the last four years. This is not to say that they never will, but history is history.
    I do not see any reasons why the stock shouldn’t be able to recover along with the Russian market, whenever it may happen under current geopolitical pressure.

  • Reply to

    GDX limit order in for $21.50

    by bighorn_50b Jan 23, 2015 12:09 PM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 23, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Sorry to hear it. So bad even two shots of scotch can't help?

  • Reply to

    GDX limit order in for $21.50

    by bighorn_50b Jan 23, 2015 12:09 PM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 23, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    I hope it's a GTC, doesn't look like $21.50 is going to happen today, unless a miracle happens.

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 23, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Everyone should make his/hers own judgement to answer this question. Depending on the risk tolerance, available capital, skill, desirable/target profit.... etc. Also, time you are willing to spend on this trade. As somebody remarked yesterday, I normally do not spend more than 10-15 mins if the price doesn't go my way right away. I have other trades to make/watch/close. I don't mind to take a loss, it's just a cost of doing business.
    Some people are full time day traders, some are full time swing, some are occasional traders... etc.
    So, to answer your question, the decision is strictly individual.
    I would suggest to start with $10G and keep increasing every other week or so as the confidence grows. You'll start with low risk of loss, making peanuts, but you'll acquire a skill.

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 23, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    Yesterday wasn't the best day for this trading. Normally, volatility/price swings are a lot bigger.
    If you keep watching, may be take small trades, you'll get a better feeling for it.

  • Reply to

    dow up 260, gold up $10, are miners all down??

    by acev7071 Jan 22, 2015 4:31 PM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    $HUI in the area of triple resistance:
    1. 50 week MA @ 212.21
    2. 61.8% Fib retracement between the high the week of Aug 11 and the low of the week Nov 3rd
    3 the low of the week of Sep 1st 2013, Oct 7th 2013, and May 27th 2014 - all three in the area of $HUI $212,

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Taking too much of my time. Im out 3.28

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    I changed my stop loss to 1.5%. atm it should close me out at about 3.26, unless it'll make a higher high.

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Normally, you are right I do not wait more than 10 mins, but I was too busy watching my $RUT calls, I honestly missed the slide of UGAZ. It can't hurt me now, the worst case scenario - it'll eat a little into my $RUT profits.

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Not a big deal for me and... and thanks for your support a good wishes

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    UGAZ in 3.20 stop loss 3.10

  • Reply to

    Trader

    by tannbechard Jan 22, 2015 10:02 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 22, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I am NOT reading the report, couldn't care less for what it says. I do not even know the number or what they represent. By the time you finish reading the report you are too late to the game. The game is not the numbers, the game is volatility.
    I am just watching the 3 and 15 min charts.
    80% of the time it move the price one way and within 5-10 mins it moves it sharply in opposite direction.
    Stop loss is mandatory!!! Just try to watch it a few time to get a feel for it.
    I'll try to post my trades, but honestly, things change so fast that posting trades real time is virtually impossible. And if I post it later on.... the credibility is very tenuous at the best. GL.

  • Reply to

    NUGT will hit $100

    by lmtony2002 Jan 20, 2015 4:33 PM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 21, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    BH, ironically, last time $HUI closed in the $400 area, the week of 2/4/13, NUGT close at $409.05.
    For $HUI to get back to that level, it'd have to double. For NUGT....a 20 fold increase???!!!!!
    I can't possibly predict the price of NUGT at the time $HUI gets back to the $400 level, as it greatly depends on the time it'll take to get there, but I am going to venture to predict that NUGT will NEVER see this level again and has a very little chance to see half of it.

  • Reply to

    My GDX losers turned into winners!

    by bighorn_50b Jan 20, 2015 11:41 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 20, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    IMO 1320 to 1340 is doable now and, under the circumstances, likely.
    The downside for now is 1140ish
    Watching oil, NG, and obviously PM/miners.
    Also of interest could be derivatives on FCG, RSX, EWZ, and $TYX.

  • Reply to

    My GDX losers turned into winners!

    by bighorn_50b Jan 20, 2015 11:41 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 20, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    I am afraid this could be one of those times when geopolitical pressure may defy the technicals.
    I am yet to find a suitable entry to the down side.
    This said, I do understand people who start testing waters seeing a decline.

  • Reply to

    NG Inventory Report....

    by trader537 Jan 15, 2015 10:58 AM
    trader537 trader537 Jan 20, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    I wouldn't advise any attempt to catch a falling knife.
    Accumulation/Distribution is very low on both UNG and UGAZ and 300% higher for DGAZ.
    Lots of things are defying technicals these days, outside of day trading I'd just sit it out.

UNG
14.79+0.24(+1.65%)3:59 PMEST

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