Hi, John. I've been out on the West Coast for a week again and actually came back only a few hours ago.
I am out of touch with the markets so I'll refrain from making any comments. Will try to catch up over the weekend. I do not see any comments from Alex for a while now. Can't say I blame him.
I know, John. I am a little sloppy this way. As a day trader I do not have the luxury of time for 100% precision. I am trading off 3 min charts, guided by very rigid rules I developed for myself, so an extra 30 seconds often means you missed a trade. If I am within an acceptable margin of error - I am fine. Timing is a lot more important to me than precision, again - within acceptable margin of error. And above is a good example. Say I called $1215 (although I did write "give or take a few bucks"), spot price turned around close to $1206, which is about 0.8% below $1215, which is an acceptable margin of error to me even for a day trade, never mind when I am projecting the price for a few days, as I did in this instance. Longer term, I feel satisfied if my call is within 2%. It could be different for other people, but I am trading my own money, not somebody else' so I take liberty of making my own rules.
You'll actually give me a credit when gold hits $1100? WOW!!! I'll be holding my breath in anticipation. Like I give a flying spit for your credit.
What a dunce.
I thought i'd give you a benefit of the doubt, but... Ignored for the last time.
On 5/16 both Alex and I called for a short term rally.
I called for the top of $1,215 give or take a few bucks while Alex called for $1,206.
The rally actually took place and topped out at $1,205.
Kudos to Alex for this unbelievable precision!!!!
Of course you can do it, anybody can. Some poster here even suggested his blind dog can do it.
I'll just summarize my prediction vs. reality so that you know the goals you have to set for yourself:
1. I've predicted a short term rally and a rally started in about 27-28 hours. (100% accurate)
2. I defined the time frame of the rally 1-3 days. The rally lasted for 2 days (100% accurate).
3. I defined the top of this rally at $1,215 give or take a few bucks. The rally ended at $1,205....Hmmmm. That was a wrong call, right? The whole .82% (from $1,215) of the error. (well within a reasonable margin of error normally set at 2%).
BTW, Alex called for the top of this rally at (drum roll!!!) $1,206. Kudos to Alex, he was 100% on the money.
Hmmmm. I just remembered the reason I have you on my ignore list. Never again will I read your posts. Total waste of time.
I did this experiment about two years ago. It works, but it works better on paper. There are some issues with it:
1. Not all brokers will let you short 3x ETFs
2. High margin requirements prevent from shorting sufficient quantities.
3. Have to "re-shuffle" pairs when one in a pair gains or loses about 50%.
4. The process works very slowly - a lot more money can be made trading them.
There might have been others, I do not remember now.
Think about this one: Imagine NUGT gains 200% what would DUST do? Take a look at FAS/FAZ. Try to short the two back five years ago.
All, or most I should say, 3x ETFs are like this. They are all designed for self-disruction - they decay. If you are no familiar with the term, read up on it. A while ago there was a good article explaining "decay" on SeekingAlpha".
This is NOT what the post says.
I think it's a "public service" to remind people on this board what it is they are trading.
I just want to emphasize on two things in this quote:
1. the word "daily" - the issuer makes no commitment as to the performance of this ETF outside of a single trading session, including performance of the underlying index.
2. The index this ETF is designed to replicate performance of on daily (!!) basis is $GDM.
$GDM is usually performing pretty much as $HUI and $XUA, give or take a bit. GDX is performing pretty close to these indexes as well.
A listening device wouldn't help, John. I wrote this about 30 hours BEFORE they announced meeting minutes. May be Yellen read my post and decided to put some squeeze on gold prices to contribute to my credibility on this board.
On a serious note, I am amazed how much the miners underperform the metal. With today's gain in spot prices, I wouldn't be surprised if NUGT was 15-20% up. Instead it's hardly above the water.
Bad sign for the miners. There could be very steep losses when this bear trap rally ends.
I did say though that longer term it still looks very bearish.
Short term....there is a triple resistance between 1215 and 1220. Is it possible it'll break it? Yes it is possible, every support/resistance are destined to be violated eventually. But technical analysis and trading that follows it IS NOT about what it will be or what is possible to happen - it's about what is more likely than not - probability. This said, IMO the most likely scenario following this rally is a decline to 1100, very likely below this level.
What an ignorant #$%$. No skill for the most basic analysis.
Check the time stamp on the original post - June 16 7:50 AM. Spot gold lost around eight buck by 10:30 AM on June 17th and the rally started from there. I gave you 27 hours (!!!), not a few minutes, head start.
You know anybody who presented to you better analysis.
And BTW - I do not know the first thing about EWA. I do very traditional technical analysis.
Sounds like your blind dog is hell of a lot more intelligent than you are.
Seriously? Well.... In this case I guess I'll have to agree. If, as you so eloquently stated, "its a 3X ETF bull" I guess I must agree with "it most definitely is designed to follow Gold price". May be I'll just have a little doubt, a very tiny one....
Guess what? I have 25 triple leveraged bull ETFs (or ETNs rather) on my list and only one of them is designed to accomplish 300% performance of Gold - UGLD. (There might be others, but they are not on my list)
What a spectacular exhibit of total ignorance in the subject matter.
I am afraid I'd run out of money if I do "true" double every time GDX loses a buck. I trade in sizable quantities.
Besides, as I said quite a few times in the past - miners is not the only game in town.
NUGT is designed to perform 300% of $GDM not GDX. Close but not the same
Today $GDM closed up 2.38%. NUGT closed up 7.42%. That's 311.76%.
If I may suggest, not to anger the Lord with your vanity, why don't adjust your expectation to let's say a very modest GDX $20.
Later, in a VERY unlikely case it hits $24, act very happily surprised, knowing full well that you haven't had a single doubt in your mind it'd get there from the start.