Alex, thanks for taking the time and the effort at such late hour.
I guess you can do amazing things with EW, I couldn't even attempt to predict daily closing prices this far in advance.
If you don't mind I'll just state a few facts I read from a 5 day/15 min chart.
It looks like $HUI has created a pretty stron short term support in the area of $253.55 and a short time resistance at about $261.15. This range $253.55-$261 is devided equally ( I am eyeballing), by a price line on my chart @ $257.20 the previous low established on April 17th which evidently served as a pretty good resistance, considering this weeks closing.
Now I render an opinion:
I'll agree with Alex - it's very likely, the beginning of next week will start on a positive note and will probably reach $258.10. I will also agree the luck will reverse from there and there is high likelihood of next week closing flat to negative.
IT all depends on the situation, If I bought it at $8, I'd think of taking the risk. Otherwise would consider buying puts to protect from the loss. Whatever, there are lots of ways to skin a cat.
Hi, Alex. Glad you are back.
Back when I started my "Weekly Summaries" I originally wanted to do it on a daily basis, but figured it wasn't feasible, so I settled for weekly. I hope you'll do better.
What charts are you planning to use for your analysis, something like 5 day/30 min?
One of the posts in the last 2-3 days, I gave analysis of this, you can check my posts.
In short, It'll have a lot better chance (75/25) to get up to the next level of resistance @ $273.70
Actually, if it closes the week at this level, I'd strongly advise against it, especially facing a long weekend,
On more general level, if $HUI closes below $257 failing to break the resistance, there will be, IMHO, a 70/30 chance of it declining to the next support at around $225, Also, that H&S I talked about in another topic. didn't quite play out today, but may very well finish it's job tomorrow.
But than again, there is that 30% of success.
Of cause you can always say that I should take my advise and shove it.
Not a bad call after all: we filled the gap, we had a reversal and closed way below the openning level. Of cause we never got on a red, but this is Vito's fault, he made me do analysis this early in the morning before I had a chance to brush my dental implants.
Tokyo - 7% down. I wouldn't be shocked to see last hour sell off on WS. This said, I'll metion that the charts, at this minute, do not support this move.
A gap is like a magnet pulls the price to close it (there is better explanation, but I'll stick to this for now). Once the gap is closed, the pressure to close it evaporates. The price can do whatever it's set to do.
It's like any other pattern. Not sure if this is clear,
The rule of the gap is that it has to be closed, no timeframe involved.
Strictly speaking, not all gaps get closed. There are always exceptions to the rules.
The answer to your question is YES.
For those who contemplate getting into day trading, one of the rules you may want to learn is this:
If you have flashing entry points on multiple issues, you'll always trade the one that will turn out to be worse than others. Funny. One of my screens is split between AAPL and GOOG. Both showed entry signal at the open, and of cause - I picked GOOG. People who read my posts know, I am mostly trading options.
Now look at the charts of the two. Don't get me wrong, I don't complain, I did catch $6 move on GOOG, but AAPL moved more than $10 bucks. This rule NEVER fails!!