"Normally, nugt has been following the markets" - you for real, man?
All you have to do to prove this statement wrong is to put charts of S&P 500 or DJ on the one hand, and $HUI on the other hand, and compare them from say mid 2011 to current day. My 5.5 yo grandson will tell you they are not following one another, never mind NUGT which long term follows NOTHING.
If you read my topic "Alex I need a second opinion" below this on, you'll understand where I am coming from on the price of oil.
I am not smart enough to process all this fundamental information you listed and be ahead of the pack to act on it. I have a few friends though who have every single resource to process and evaluate all of this, price it in and put it on the charts. Their names are Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley, I trust them 100% to paint the charts. All I have to do now is read the charts and follow the two of my friends.
I think oil may very well find it's price in the low $40s within 6-8 weeks.
About DWTI, I jumped in just under $100 and got out at $150. Should it go below $100 I'll get on it again if I find a compelling entry point. I am not staying in these things any longer than 6-8 weeks, the less the better I feel.
As I look at my monitor ATM Dow Jones is down .48%, S&P 500 - down .46%....
NASDAQ is down .77%
Watch the pressure on NASDAQ.
Here is what I did: last week I sold my "high dividend REIT portfolio" at just under 12% loss. I had this portfolio since December 2010, it did very well over this period of time.
I am planning double up on my high dividend energy portfolio when oil goes back to $40ish.
But that's me, what do I know? Everybody is a master of their respective lives. DYODD.
Just thought of something else (stupid thoughts creep into my head lately) I neglected to look at when I wrote the original post: If we draw Fib retracements between the high of 2007 and the low of 2009 - current S&P 500 is exactly at 161.8% Fib retracement level. The high for Dow Jones was about 3% below the same Fib level.
Just to summarize current technical state of major market indexes:
1. NASDAQ is at the double top with the previous all tie high
2. Dow Jones and S&P 500 are at the major (?) retracement level.
I just thought I'd amend my original post with yet another spooky item, for what it's worth.
I am scared sh.tless. And it's not even Halloween yet..... but the Passover is starting on Friday, I'll kill my neighbor's goat and smear his blood over my doors.... helped once,,,, If the market doesn't crash you guys owe me for the trouble.
....on spot crude oil.
Daily chart between 2/16 and current day awfully reminds me of an inverse H&S.
I must say, I have very little faith in oil going higher, having a deal with Iran in the pipeline. But the chart is the chart.
It's like the deal is going to fall through or some other fundamental or geopolitical thing is going to play into the trend change or.... the price will just ignore the pattern and keeps going it's marry way all the way down to below $40. I'll just add that the weekly chart IMO suggests the latter (further decline into mid to high $30s).
What say EWA?
I am always taking EVERYTHING I read/hear on or about financial markets with the huge grain of salt.
I hate it when people selling newsletters tell me they are the only ones in the Universe who know about this particular company that will, without a doubt, be a ten bagger in six months time.
I hate those who sell fear/panic: everything is going to crash on my head no later than two weeks from today… unless I buy their newsletter that will most definitely save my finances and may be even my life. Etc, etc… most of you know what I am talking about.
Right or wrong I believe in conclusions I draw based on my own analysis. I can also appreciate somebody else’ analysis after I double check them and say: How could I possibly not notice this one.
Now… what I am going to present here is very simple, requires only very basic/minimal knowledge of technical patterns…
(I tried to give links to the charts here, didn't work. You can get them on Yahoo or any other charting site that allows custom time frame)
$SPX – S&P 500 Chart from Jan 1st 2000 to April of 2009
See anything interesting on this chart? The double top and the consequences?….
Now take a look at this:
$NSD – NASDAQ 100 Chart from Feb 1st 1998 to the current day:
See the double top? The consequences are yet to be painted…
Are they going to be identical to the once on the first chart? I do not know for sure, but inclined to think so.
One thing for sure: I am going to be watching every single development on this and all other major indexes charts very closely. I suggest you do too.
Have a great weekend!!!
As I said, Well have to agree to disagree on this particular pattern.
The price of spot gold 8-12-16 weeks from now will be the ultimate judge...
Watch out for my next topic on the general equity markets coming up soon, after market close.
Let's agree to disagree for now.
Up/down trend, top/bottom is all relative to the chart scale.
Look at 1 day/3 min chart or 1day/15 min you'll see different pictures, look at the 5 yr weekly chart and and you see totally different picture. Bottom line - it's all relative to the time frame you are doing analysis for. Analysis for intraday. 3-5 day, or 3 months projections must be done on the different scale charts
There was an explosion and fire on 2nd Ave and St Marks Place in the East Village in Manhattan, two buildings collapsed in raging fire. This is two small street blocks South from where my son lives with his family. They are fine, thank God. I am not a very religious man, but.... may God deliver all people known injured and those trapped in the buildings safe and unharmed from this disaster. Amen.
I am not sure I understand what "a particular time chart" means. You can look at a 3 months or three years daily chart and the overall picture will look different and, assuming there is n H&S some place, it could be on the top, middle, or bottom of the chart. If you look at the 5 year weekly chart, you'll find this H&S on the "bottom", it doesn't make it any less valid.
This said, as much as I like this picture, it still doesn't guarantee it'll break out, just like any other technical indicator, only make this prediction "more likely than not". A few days ago, I wrote this leg up, although very likely, doesn't present a tradable opportunity, and strangely enough I find this prediction to be right on the money. In the seven straight days of gains in spot price, $HUI, GDX, and NUGT were up only three days and overall profits in these 7 trading days weren't worth a trade.
I must say now if I find spot price anywhere between $1225 and $1230ish I'll be buying lots of DUST.
Please everybody, DYODD do not rely on my opinion alone.
I am afraid we are talking about different H&S patterns.
Take a look at this: daily chart, LS 12/9/14, head 1/21, RS today, descending neck line on 12/23 and 3/16. looks complete to me. All it needs to do is break out to cause a lot of damage.
We've had seven positive closings running. Spot price gained from $1149.75 to the high of today $1219.76 or about 6,1% in these seven trading days. I could call it a "dead cat bounce" but didn't want to offend people who benefitted from it. There is plenty of offensive posts on Yahoo boards, no need for me to add to those numbers. Besides, I am not 100% convinced this rally is over.
The high today was $1219.76, currently $1205.50 as I write this. There is a good chance of retesting the high and possibly reaching a bit higher, just like I wrote about this rally from the very beginning low to mid 1220s. I can see where the number $1280 comes from, but even $1240 seems a bit of a stretch before a meaningful decline. May be I am just being stubborn sticking to the numbers I projected in the past. As I write this I am admiring this beautiful almost perfect H&S. If this thing breaks out, all hell will break loose, $1000 comes to mind. As always, all of this is JMHO.
P.S. Both you and I predicted this rally way in advance. I think I first wrote about it on 3/11. CNBC attributes this to the Middle East, Saudis attacking Libya etc...
I really do not care about Saudis attacking Libya - technicals rule.
Now that the bounce both of us predicted is actually happening the targets seem to remain the same:
mid to high $1220s is the most likely top with possibility of up to $1240 The probability of the top above $1230 is not very high, but here is the kick..... The higher it goes in the range, the deeper it'll dive in the decline. The decline target is below $1100, a very tradable opportunity
All of this is JMHO
Hi, Alex. I agree with you 100%. I wish I had been paying a lot more attention to the commas when I was studying English grammar. In this respect I am totally clueless. But....
Technicals rule. Yesterday's speech did NOTHING but created volatility short term. The longer term picture hasn't changed a single bit. Now, were even intraday moves of the general equity, currency, PM markets unpredictable? If you put my indicators, BBs/MAs/RSI, on the 3 min chart you'll find: at 1:39 pm SPY $3 below LBB with RSI 23.36 while UVXY was $.20 above UBB and RSI about 67 ( not very conclusive in itself, but in OB territory). You can also find that at 1:45 pm GLD was about $1.50 below LBB sitting right on the top of 200 MA. Of course, even all of these put together do not give you 100% success rate, but 75% combined with tight stop loses, is good enough for me.
I think the Fed minutes will push it both ways. It always brings volatility. After an hour or so everything is back to normal. Usually it's like a gift to day traders.