I strongly suspect you are right.
Today's reaction to the stupid report on the top of existing support in the low $1220s could prompt a very profitable short term play. Just do not overstay your welcome.
I actually happen to be in JNUG on purely technical reasons when this rally started. As always going after 2%... Worked out a lot better - pure luck.
I do think a contrarian trade is in order as IMO gold/miners should lose most (or all) of these hectic gains before the day is over.
... very high and (seems like) pretty stable INCOME.
Dividend distribution - over 23% (diffrent sites show different numbers). May have to be hedged.
Please DYODD and talk to your accountants about tax consequences.
It's not belated for my g-son. His actual b-day is on the 17th. Against all superstitions, we had to celebrate it in advance because my son and his wife have to go to some business conference for four days at the end of this week.
Happy belated b-day to your g-daughter as well.
I'll wish our grand kids all the best too. I hope they get it at least as well as we did without having to work as hard.
I'll definitely post anything I find interesting.
Thanks, Alex. It's a shame they are going to shatter a number of good ETFs.
Didn't have a chance to even touch my computer this weekend. Have been celebrating my g-son's 5th birthday. Family party, kid's party..... I am still having a “headache through my entire body" (Goldie Hawn said this in one of the movies, was it “Overboard”?).
I am watchng commodities outside of PM space very close: NG, agriculture, etc, European,
S. American, E. Eurpean (mother Russia) ETFs - but no calls just yet. Interest rates seem to get away from me - I expected them to go lower, I still hope they'll get down to my red line.
You don't think so - about what exactly?
You do not think there will be retracements, relieve rallies and such before we hit the bottom?
You believe we are going to the bottom on a straight line?
The rally I wrote about was contingent upon this week’s closing above $1240:
===“the prerequisite is this week’s close above $1240”.===
Even I can read the chart and see, even without my glasses, it didn’t close above $1240.
I also wrote: (if this rally happens) ===“It could be the last rally before the slide below $1200”===.
I really straggle to understand what people here are objecting to.
Speaking of the BBs on the weekly chart…
The LBB is @ $1240.23, spot gold closed @ $1229.60. RSI closed @ 36.36, not dead oversold, but in what I would call “oversold territory”.
Looks a lot worse on daily chart: LBB @1235.33 and RSI @ 25.26.
There is also support level in the low $1220.
I would expect 30-50% retracement in a very near future, but what do I know.
Hi, John. Long time no see.
From what I've seen lately, Fed changes nothing only creates temporary volatility followed by immediate return to "normal". In fact I found that a contrarian day trade to the initial reaction to the Fed announcements has very high probability. Just like the one I usually take on Thu mornings after NG inventory report. Those two are THE MOST PREDICTABLE things on these markets.
… the last two days? Here is the reason IMO:
Traders know $1240s is a major support area so they are setting up for a pop expecting this week to close above this price.
A relieve rally is due. Also, the way the spot chart looks short term, next week should be green.
I am going to go on the limb saying this: if tomorrow closes above $1240, we'll see $1260s within next 5-7 trading days. I don’t think this is too much to expect, it’s only 1.6% from this level. I’ll go even further saying that $1300s is NOT out of the question, in fact IMO it’s pretty likely. But again, the prerequisite is this week’s close above $1240. All of this will be due to the fact that USD Index is at the major resistance area and is likely to bounce off of it.
Just don’t you folks go around thinking this is the long term trend change – it’s not IMO. It could be the last rally before the slide below $1200. We shall see soon enough.
Hi, Rich. Long time no see.
Here is what Larry wrote about 1-2 weeks ago, I printed it out for a future reference:
"... the bullish forces for gold will gain complete control once the yellow metal closes above $1,406.80 on a weekly basis (seriously? that's $160 bucks above current level). But at no time must gold close below $1,259.90 (current price - $1,239ish) - or the bear may suddenly return..."
Larry also talked about strong rally commencing in May....
With all due respect to Larry, he did predict a bear market in PMs in advance, I'll testify to that... he is slipping lately. I am not subscribing to his newsletters, just catch some free stuff now and then.
Please post here when he pulls the "buy" trigger.
A volatile product like gold wouldn’t sit on the same place for any stretch of time, it can trade in some range. But if it did, I’d think investors aren’t sure which side to take and either stick to their current positions or just stay on the sidelines.
This said I must add that there are other tech indicators, in addition to price action, that may hint the next move of gold or whatever it is we are talking about. A good example may be narrowing Bollinger Bands, which may indicate change of the previous trend, MACD, RSI, etc. Currently, RSI is about 37.50 on a weekly spot chart. It means that after two years of decline spot gold is not even oversold – not a very bullish sign.
Each one of the indicators should be reviewed individually and, when put together into a single pot, must make some sense for the next move. They might contradict one another too, in which case I’d say stay on the sideline or, if you have a position – hedge it.
Spot price closing a week below $1240 isn’t going to go down too well with me. It would indicate a break DOWN below few important IMO support levels. If it happens, I’d expect spot @ $1180s in short order. I don't think I am ready for it just yet.
IMO it would be too fricking simple. Life is NEVER that simple, not in my experience.
I have to do my weekly analysis to talk about this at least half way intelligently. It’s not happening this coming weekend – my g-son is turning five this weekend. The little thing will keep me real busy.
I think the low at this time of $1243.76 qualifies for "low $1240s", However, $HUI @ $219.60 is still about 3% above my target.
For those adventurous enough to risk about 10-12% possible NUGT (currently @ $33.05) slide can start setting up a bullish trade could set up a bullish trade. I would suggest that these individuals set up a “stop loss” @ about $26.50 or be ready to avg down at this level.
For people contemplating a JNUG trade, IMO it looks like the “Juniors” may slide a lot more from here than the “Seniors”.
I am not THAT adventurous, I’ll wait for a clearer entry sign on the 4 and 8 hour charts.
Whatever you choose to do – GL.
...and currently is at the top of the trading range of the last two years.
The question is: is it going to stay in the range or break out of it.
IMO it should bounce off 1-2% before continuing the rally.
Good news: Good books, not great, but pretty good. 3% dividend paid annually
Bad news: Current price $9.02 looks overextended long term on weekly chart, I am surprised Rambus recommended it. Either Rambus is wrong or I am.
Could make a pretty good buy @ about $5 or below.
Avg books, looks overextended on weekly chart, from tech standpoint should make a good buy @ around $2.00. Currently $3.35
This said, I must add that tech analysis may or may not be applicable here. Solar stocks had an unbelievable run from Q4 2012 thru Q1 2014. So great that even TAN grew from $11.50 to almost $50 bucks (450% in less than 18 months!!!!). Some stocks in the group rallied up to, some above, 2000%!!! UN-EFFing-BELIEVABLE (pardon my French). All of this without a single word in the media that I saw or heard. So I am going to reserve my opinion about this stock.
All of this is as always JMHO. DD is the key.
$1295-1307 is about the range I had in mind when I wrote about high probability trade from low $1240s. This could bring 30-50% profit on NUGT.
A caution for the bulls who get overexcited about this little rally: If this plays out the way we described so far, the bears will see spot gold from that level to below $1200 IMO, quite possibly A LOT below.
Looks to me, there will be a high probability bullish trade from low $1240s, IMO.
Since there is still time until this happens, I'll want to take another look at spot gold and $HUI charts, before actually calling it. $HUI should hit about $212 by then.