I don't think it's going back to 23 any time soon. I may try a short-term trade if it drops back under 30.
yeah I sold this morning too. I bought this stock two weeks ago for 13.50. This is the biggest percent gain I ever made in two weeks by far. I really have no way to determine what a reasonable value is for this stock, so I sold it on the move up to retest the opening high. I got the idea to buy this stock from a list of holdings by the Baker Brothers fund. Those guys make a lot of good investments!
The MM can't necessarily see all the stop orders. It depends on how your broker handles stop loss orders. One of my brokers, used by many pro traders, does not submit stop orders immediately to the market center. Instead, they hold the stop loss orders in their systems and submit each sell order only when the market price reaches the stop price on the order. So the MM does not know where the stop loss orders are entered for this broker's customers. I'm not sure, but I would think many brokers handle stop orders this way. This stock is wildly volatile right now--looks like a lot of trading by high frequency systems and hedge fund traders. I just have a very minor position that I'm holding until we get some good news and a breakout about $5.75.
For a long list of Biotech ideas, go to the J3SG website and check out holdings of the Baker Brothers hedge fund.
I think it's shorting on downticks by HFT systems. Computers replaced all those mutual fund managers and their trading volume when many retail investors left the stock market in 2001-2008.
yep, I know that. I sold at 4.68 the day before and missed that dip on Friday while trading other stocks and ETFs. Should have had my limit order out there on Friday, but wasn't expecting such a big pullback. Looks like it's making a second retest high at 5.55 and is pulling back now before it makes a third attempt to move through that high. I'll try to buy it at 4.25 on this next pullback.
I'll buy IDRA at 4.25 or below. I won't touch it at the current price. This stock has had a huge rally in the last few months. It was trading around 1.80 back in November. There's still too many potential profit-takers out there. It should get to 4.25 at some point this week, if only for a few minutes. I'm setting up a trolling limit order right there. Looks like a high-potential stock....GLTA.
I'm talking about profit-taking in the the overall market today, you know, the S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite Index, etc., not HK.
It looks like there was a lot of deferred profit-taking today, for tax reasons. People who waited until today to sell and take profits don't have to pay the capital gains tax until April, 2015. That's a whole year later than if they sold in December 2013. We may see more deferred profit-taking tomorrow, but that will probably be about the end of it, because this is mainly a strategy used by individuals and not institutions. You typically see this kind of early January selling for tax deferral after a year with big gains in the overall market, such as 2013. After this selling is over, then we should see more of the usual January rally on stocks that had big declines last year. Nothing unusual going on.
No, I'm not short. I have no position on either side right now. Goldman said HK has a funding gap, and I know HK has a lot of interest payments on debt. That's why I think they need to sell non-core assets to fund the drilling budget. Horizontal drilling is expensive and a lot of companies have a challenge with funding drilling capex over the long term. I had a very minor position in GMXR and watched it go way down before I sold that position. GMXR was in the same kind of situation that HK is in now, only much more severe for GMXR. They had a large asset base but they also had heavy debt, low stock value, and difficulty funding drilling capex. HK seems to be better at execution and drilling the wells, which is very important. But you have to really watch these companies that have a lot of debt and a low stock price. The decline in the stock price makes it very dilutive to do secondary stock offerings. That makes it tough to raise capital for capex if they already have a lot of debt.
I haven't done a heavy analysis of HK's finances. But it reminds me too much of GMXR, so I'm cautious about buying it. HK has to thread the needle here, but it can be done and I hope they have great success from here. They have to sell non-core assets, and then drill a bunch of good wells and grow production rapidly. I think they can get that done. They have a very strong and experienced management team. Hopefully I can buy in at $4.30 and see you at $6.00 by June 2014.
Yeah, the risk at HK isn't bankruptcy. The risk is that they have to cut their capex budget and slow down their drilling program, because interest payments on debt are using up a lot of cash. This is why HK needs to sell non-core assets at reasonably good prices, to raise cash for the drilling budget.
Well it's entirely possible that HK drops below 3.50 in the next two weeks on tax loss selling by some wealthy individuals, especially if oil prices drop at the same time. That's unlikely but possible.
The reasons to wait for a confirmed uptrend and buy above $4.00 are: 1) that tells me the heavy selling is done and the shorts are starting to cover and are net buyers of the stock, and 2) the uptrend tells me there's no significant negative company news out there in the market waiting to be released to the public. The uptrend tells me that the basic drilling and production work at HK is going well and the market is not aware of any major negative events inside HK. It's a risk management strategy. I pay slightly more for the stock but I know there's less chance of negative surprises happening. I might buy in below $4.30 if the chart tells me that an uptrend is starting and it's probably going higher soon.
Tax loss selling continues into the last week in December. I'm not buying any HK until January at the earliest. I want to see some sales of non-core assets to fund drilling in core areas, and then stronger action in the Oil E&P sector, along with somewhat more bullish coverage of this sector in the financial media. Then when HK also starts a confirmed uptrend I'll open an initial long position. There's plenty of upside in HK even if you end up buying in the $4.30-4.70 range.
There's been some oversimplified analysis published in financial media about an oil glut and predictions of much lower oil prices in the years ahead. They didn't put enough weight on bullish factors: 1) Saudis will cut production to keep Brent oil prices around $100. North American production then just replaces Saudi production. 2) Some refineries can be expanded to produce more oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), which can be exported out of the U.S. This will soak up some excess production in the future. Remember Say's law: Supply creates its own demand. That means valuable light crude will go somewhere to be refined into oil products. 3) Demand for oil products isn't completely inelastic and when prices drop, demand increases in many diverse ways, such as more vacation travel with longer driving trips and longer airline trips. All of these factors will limit the decline in oil prices in the years ahead. US Oil prices could be right about where they are today in three years.
Inside buying is positive. But we're not going to know where this stock is going until January, after tax-loss selling ends.
"To optimize ultimate recoveries (EURs) for wells located in the retrograde condensate window, the company plans to continue maintaining high reservoir pressures by restricting flow rates."
I think that's the key sentence right there. But fund managers don't know if this policy is really the best way to optimize EURs or if this is just spin talk to make disappointing drilling results sound better. So they're selling PDCE today. The market trades short-term on that Boe/d number, which is not very high for the Neil well. In the long run, however, if strong EURs are proven then the stock price will recover. The EURs and the product mix are the most important results from a well.