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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

traderlp 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 15, 2014 2:57 PM Member since: Dec 28, 1999
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  • traderlp by traderlp Oct 15, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Sadly, in the next 2-3 quarters the company is going to have to do another financing...too bad they couldn't get financial help with the upcoming trials. The winners in ADXS won't be known for several years, and I don't think any current shareholders will be among them. There really doesn't seem to be another way around additional dilution (heavy).

  • Earnings per share: $2.26 for yr ended June 2014 vs $2.20 in 2013 (almost no growth)
    PE = 23x (why?)

    Book Value: $63 million at June 2014 vs. $149 million at June 2013
    Tangible BV: -$89 million at June 2014 vs. -$3 million at June 2013
    Market Cap = $3.3 billion (why?)

    Expected free cash flow $180 - $190. (again how does this justify $3.3 billion market cap?)

    Answer: Company keeps the market cap inflated by borrowing money to pay dividends and buy back stock. Not a good business model. The big boys won't hold forever.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Curious who's buying near 52 week highs when the market is looking into the abyss, and EAT is more than fully valued.

  • Don't understand the price up here...PE is too high and lot's of insider selling at around $50.

  • Don't get it - but I'll take it. Thanks!

  • Reply to

    No Deal

    by traderlp Sep 10, 2014 12:25 PM
    traderlp traderlp Sep 11, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    This is all speculation of course. I sold my shares and bought calls (just in case).

  • Reply to

    No Deal

    by traderlp Sep 10, 2014 12:25 PM
    traderlp traderlp Sep 11, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Well - eventually the premium currently priced into the shares for an imminent take-out will go away. How much is the company worth estimated to earn $2.59 per share and grow earnings at 10%ish? A lot lower than $67. I suspect it will head back down to the $50's until the next round of rumors (planted in the foreign press by the fund managers wanting to unload) cough-cough.

  • traderlp by traderlp Sep 10, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    I'd say there's not going to be a deal any time soon. DRC is priced higher than any public company will want to pay.

  • The latest round of rumors were back in July (and earlier). Volpe's buy out price is too high, and I guess Siemens doesn't have the stomach for a hostile bid - and maybe can't afford it with the stock price already at $69. I should have figured when Valueact cut their DRC stake by 60% in June/July that a deal wasn't going to happen - they would know...oh well.

    Interesting when I search for the latest news I saw this cached piece from Reuters that I previously didn't see (or didn't read correctly):

    Siemens CEO says to focus on restructuring, not M&A
    Reuters Jul 31, 2014, 02.07PM IST

    FRANKFURT: Siemens plans to focus on restructuring rather than acquisitions for the moment, Chief Executive Joe Kaeser said after the German engineering group reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday.

    "We just laid out our 'Vision 2020' concept.... the focus is clearly on operational improvement," he told analysts and journalists during a conference call but added that Siemens would have the financial firepower for acquisitions if the right target came along.

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