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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

traderlp 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 15, 2014 2:57 PM Member since: Dec 28, 1999
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  • traderlp by traderlp Oct 15, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Sadly, in the next 2-3 quarters the company is going to have to do another financing...too bad they couldn't get financial help with the upcoming trials. The winners in ADXS won't be known for several years, and I don't think any current shareholders will be among them. There really doesn't seem to be another way around additional dilution (heavy).

  • Earnings per share: $2.26 for yr ended June 2014 vs $2.20 in 2013 (almost no growth)
    PE = 23x (why?)

    Book Value: $63 million at June 2014 vs. $149 million at June 2013
    Tangible BV: -$89 million at June 2014 vs. -$3 million at June 2013
    Market Cap = $3.3 billion (why?)

    Expected free cash flow $180 - $190. (again how does this justify $3.3 billion market cap?)

    Answer: Company keeps the market cap inflated by borrowing money to pay dividends and buy back stock. Not a good business model. The big boys won't hold forever.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Curious who's buying near 52 week highs when the market is looking into the abyss, and EAT is more than fully valued.

  • Don't understand the price up here...PE is too high and lot's of insider selling at around $50.

  • Don't get it - but I'll take it. Thanks!

  • Reply to

    No Deal

    by traderlp Sep 10, 2014 12:25 PM
    traderlp traderlp Sep 11, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    This is all speculation of course. I sold my shares and bought calls (just in case).

  • Reply to

    No Deal

    by traderlp Sep 10, 2014 12:25 PM
    traderlp traderlp Sep 11, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Well - eventually the premium currently priced into the shares for an imminent take-out will go away. How much is the company worth estimated to earn $2.59 per share and grow earnings at 10%ish? A lot lower than $67. I suspect it will head back down to the $50's until the next round of rumors (planted in the foreign press by the fund managers wanting to unload) cough-cough.

  • traderlp by traderlp Sep 10, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    I'd say there's not going to be a deal any time soon. DRC is priced higher than any public company will want to pay.

  • The latest round of rumors were back in July (and earlier). Volpe's buy out price is too high, and I guess Siemens doesn't have the stomach for a hostile bid - and maybe can't afford it with the stock price already at $69. I should have figured when Valueact cut their DRC stake by 60% in June/July that a deal wasn't going to happen - they would know...oh well.

    Interesting when I search for the latest news I saw this cached piece from Reuters that I previously didn't see (or didn't read correctly):

    Siemens CEO says to focus on restructuring, not M&A
    Reuters Jul 31, 2014, 02.07PM IST

    FRANKFURT: Siemens plans to focus on restructuring rather than acquisitions for the moment, Chief Executive Joe Kaeser said after the German engineering group reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday.

    "We just laid out our 'Vision 2020' concept.... the focus is clearly on operational improvement," he told analysts and journalists during a conference call but added that Siemens would have the financial firepower for acquisitions if the right target came along.

  • Reply to

    Thank You Mr. & Mrs. Market

    by traderlp Aug 15, 2014 5:29 PM
    traderlp traderlp Aug 21, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Well you see some of it...$18 in 2015 from here is a nice return. But if you look at comparables in the M2M business with ESYS's growth and profitability - the 1 year target should be in the mid-20's. The takeout value today is even higher. The main problem with this company is that the share float is too small. I wouldn't be surprised to see a $10 million+ offering in the near future - I think it would actually benefit the share price. A split might also been beneficial at some point. Anyway - if management continues to deliver on growth and product offerings, I could easily see the market cap reaching $200 - $400 million over the next few years - from the current $40 million.

  • Reply to

    This likely means either

    by phbutter Aug 21, 2014 10:51 AM
    traderlp traderlp Aug 21, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    The after hours activity (low volume) and the lack of news today make me think this action is a newsletter pump & dump...unfortunately.

  • I appreciate the entry level in the $12's...I'm half way where I want to be on this investment. I wouldn't mind getting the rest a little lower, if you don't mind. Congrats to those who got in at sub $4 and sub $8 over the past year and a half. I wouldn't mind a little dip to the $8's between now and year end - that would still be a double for you $4 investors - don't be greedy.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    Regards, Traderlp

  • Reply to

    $7 Billion...

    by traderlp Aug 14, 2014 10:09 AM
    traderlp traderlp Aug 15, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    I'm thinking we're going to see a hostile bid...

  • traderlp by traderlp Aug 14, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    ...or $7.5 B...I'm betting that's the number - and someone's coming up with it.

  • Reply to

    Well, this has to be rock bottom ...

    by donjayouworry Aug 7, 2014 8:36 AM
    traderlp traderlp Aug 8, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    I think people here are dead wrong about the equity offerings DO has done - I don't think he had a choice back in October when the company had no cash at all and he got the best pricing he could. If he didn't do the follow on when he did, the company would have $10 million or less in the bank and be looking at a near future capital raise at $2 or less - the market has proven him right.

    Now the failure to strike better deals on the licensing and trials is either a problem with DO or the technology - I don't know the answer and from what I can tell - no one on this board is sure about the technology. Advaxis has clearly not proven it so far, and it's going to take $ and brains to do that.

  • Reply to

    $1 Spike means

    by algaebb Aug 7, 2014 1:29 PM
    traderlp traderlp Aug 7, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    The problem is the charts look terrible - more like a retest of $280 - and the general market sentiment is going to work against AMZN over the near term. pretty strong support at $312 though...but once that breaks, its going to be a hard, fast drop.

  • There is no economic value in this company remaining independent, consolidation in the M2M industry is needed, and management is already being changed out. A sale would be in the best interest of all parties.

  • The Market might start looking at global risks...

  • Reply to

    American Greed

    by fbg0316 Jul 17, 2014 9:30 PM
    traderlp traderlp Jul 19, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    I'm hoping the management team makes a fortune on those RSUs. The share price wouldn't be any better if the company didn't raise cash when it did. The new management team needs to execute and get rewarded for their efforts. Small biotechs are very rarely a buy and hold. They are ALWAYS a gamble. Unfortunate for long term investors.

  • traderlp by traderlp Jul 18, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Market makers zeroing out the $2.50 calls?

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