Facts, as quoted from another poster:
This is DCF and EBITDA analysis for 2015 and the FREE Cash Flow
Upstream division: It will make at least $13 million adjusted EBITDA in 2015, given that oil and nat gas prices have risen 20% - 30% from Q1 2015 and will continue rising during the remainder of 2015. For reference, the Upstream division made $2.3 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2015 when WTI was at $50 and natural gas was at $2.5/mmbtu. See where WTI and Henry Hub are today compared to Q1 to confirm it.
Oilfield services division: NSLP will make about $21-$22 million in adjusted EBITDA (average), see the latest guidance and the latest presentation. Keep also in mind that the fraclog is a big plus for the oilfield services, because it will add completions during the remainder of 2015.
So NSLP's total adjusted EBITDA in 2015 will be: $34 - 35 million.
DCF = adjusted EBITDA - Interest - Distr. to Preferred - Maintenance CapEx
Maintenance Expenses for 2015: $4 million (READ the company's latest guidance).
Interest Expenses for 2015: $2 million for the remaining bank debt of $43 million, because it was $4 million annually when the bank debt was $84 million. READ company's previous PR.
Payment to Preferred for 2015: $4.8 million (11% for $44 million preferred stock).
So DCF for 2015 will be: 34 - 4 - 2 - 4.8 = $23 million.
This is more than enough to allow NSLP to pay distribution $0.20 per quarter, which is $13 million per year.
This also means that the fat yield for the common units (15% now) is quite sustainable as shown above.
NSLP has FREE CF for 2015 of about $10-$11 million that can use either to acquire other companies (Larry Lee's wells?) or reduce further its already low bank debt of $43 million.
Instead of posting your sentiment and you ridiculous theories, educate yourself and LEARN what MLP, DCF, EBITDA, Maintenance CapEx means. You obviously ignore the basics. READ also NSLP's PR to find all the above.
You have been polluting this board with a ton of lies in a very short period of time. Among others, these are your latest lies:
1) You were claiming Larry Lee bought a stake in NSLP. That was ABSOLUTELY WRONG. Lee bought a stake in NSLP's GP.
2) You were claiming that NSLP is NOT allowed to pay more than $6M to the common units. ABSOLUTELY WRONG. The $6M refers ONLY to the holders of the preferred units, see below from the company's report:
" On May 1, 2015, we entered into an Eighth Amendment (the "Eighth Amendment") to the credit agreement governing our credit facility. The Eighth Amendment (i) permits the Partnership to make cash distributions up to $6.0 million per year to holders of our 11.00% Series A Cumulative Convertible Preferred Units ("Series A Preferred Units"), As a result of the Eighth Amendment, distributions to common unitholders are not permitted unless the amount outstanding is 90% or less of the current borrowing base".
3) You were claiming that the distributions to the common units will NEVER start again. ABSOLUTELY WRONG. NSLP found the money to pay for the reduction to the borrowing base, and the distributions started again a few days ago.
4) You were claiming that the common units will NEVER again receive $0.20 distribution per common unit. ABSOLUTELY WRONG. We received it a few days ago and there is not any cut on the horizon according to the report because the amount outstanding now is MUCH LESS than $60M, which is NSLP's borrowing base:
" On May 8, 2015, the Partnership remitted payment of $41.0 million which resulted in an outstanding balance under our credit facility of $43.0 million . Distributions to common unitholders are permitted as long as the amount outstanding is 90% or less of the current borrowing base. Accordingly, we are currently permitted to pay distributions in May 2015. "
5) The $0.20 quarterly distribution is 14% annual yield !!!!!!!
To all NSLP holders of common units:
OFS division: ~$23M adjusted EBITDA in 2015, according to the latest guidance.
Upstream division: At least $13M adjusted EBITDA in 2015, given that oil and nat gas prices have risen 20% from Q1 2015 and will continue rising during the remainder of 2015.
For reference, the Upstream division made $2.3 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2015 when WTI was at $50 and natural gas was at $2.5/mmbtu.
NSLP's total adjusted EBITDA in 2015: $35 - 36 million.
Maintenance Expenses for 2015: $4 million (see the company's latest guidance).
Interest Expenses for 2015: $2 million for the remaining bank debt of $43 million, because it was $4 million annually when the bank debt was $84 million. See company's previous PR.
Payment to Preferred for 2015: $4.8 million (11% for $44 million preferred stock).
DCF for 2015: 35 - 4 - 2 - 4.8 = $24 million.
This is more than enough to allow NSLP to pay distribution $0.20 per quarter, which is $13 million per year. NSLP can use the remaining cash to acquire other companies or reduce further the bank debt of $43 million.
This also means that the yield for the common units is 14% now (!!!!!), and I do not really care even if NSLP trims the distribution somewhat and the annual yield goes down to 7%. Even 7% is high and fine for me because I focus on the capital gains.
jimjones aka resident LIAR,
Ignorance? Stupidity? Agenda? All of the above? Very likely.
Jimjones aka resident LIAR,
Once again, you prove your COMBO ignorance/stupidity/agenda because you ALLEGE:
" So 11.65 million due in the next year and approx 2 million units to be issued, which means another 1.6million comes out of DCF to cover those units....wheres the coverage ratio then and wheres the 11.65million in cash going to come from, issue more PR? "
This is ABSOLUTELY WRONG.
First, we talk for an additional consideration which is CONTINGENT. We talk for a DIFFERENCE, IF ANY, based on the already paid amount for the acquisition which is $22M.
This CONTIGENT CONSIDERATION is based on EFS and RPS EBITDA.
And the thing is that there is not any additional consideration because the annualized EBITDA of EFS and RPS have dropped in 2015. Again, contact the company!
Last but not least, how did you miss that the senior notes of just $19 million CAN BE RE-FINANCED?
RE-FINANCED. again RE-FINANCED.
Is it the first time you hear the word RE-FINANCING the senior notes, resident LIAR?
Good and accurate post, indeed.
Keep also in mind that the preferred stock is convertible at $6.61 per common unit. This means that NSLP at the current levels of $5.5 is a very safe entry price. This happens because the preferred holders do not have any reason to convert their preferred units into common units, if NSLP's stock is NOT AT LEAST $8 per share.
The preferred holders already receive a secured 11% yield, so they want NSLP's stock to be at least 20% higher than $6.61 in order to convert their preferred untis to common units. They do not have one single reason to convert their preferred units if NSLP stock is at $7.3 - $7.4 per common unit. The price of $7.3 is 11% higher than $6.61, so they will be unable to sell and get a higher yield from this conversion than what they already receive. In other words, this means that NSLP's stock has to be at least at $8 (20% higher than $6.61) to incentivize the preferred holders to convert their preferred units into common units.
Your LIES really disgust me, because "Scripta manent".
Your posts and your statements are here at this board and now you come to deny them while continuing your theories, as usual. It was YOU who was claiming all these clueless things, the board members can easily your posts at the older dates.
In terms of the interest rate, read the REASONS and WHEN it escalates. Read the DATE and the YEAR, LIAR.
In terms of the senior notes, the company stated that the interest expenses IN TOTAL was between $0.9 and $1M in Q1 2015. That debt (bank and notes) and the interest expenses associated with it, has been halved after the preferred. They have been included in the equation above, but I know that this equation hurts your agenda. You do not like these facts.
Your LIES really make me sick.
This price of $6-$7 does not make sense to me and any knowledgeable investor when I can buy debt free stocks with higher production and lower EV due to the correction in the energy markets.
Even if Oyo-7 produces another 7,000 boepd, ERN is a very risky and very expensive stock now.
Those who still hold it at the current sky high levels do not realize that they hold a bomb but they might get it suddenly one day.
jimjones62 resident LIAR of this board,
First, see the other thread where I summarized your latest LIES.
Second, read the report to understand what is going on with the preferred and why the current price of ~$5.5 is a great entry price, given that the conversion is at $6.61/share (25/3.7821):
" Preferred Units Offering. On May 8, 2015, we completed a public offering of $44.0 million of our Series A Preferred Units at a price of $25.00 per unit. The Series A Preferred Units are cumulative convertible preferred units that are entitled to receive quarterly cash distributions at the rate of 11.00% per annum. The Series A Preferred Units are convertible into our common units on any January 1, April 1, July 1 or October 1 by the holder and we may elect to convert the Series A Preferred Units into our common units on or after July 15, 2018 in certain circumstances. The initial conversion rate for the Series A Preferred Units is 3.7821 common units per Series A Preferred Unit and mandatorily redeemable by the holder on or after July 15, 2022. We will redeem all of the Series A Preferred on July 15, 2022 at a redemption price equal to the liquidation preference of $25.00 plus an amount equal to accumulated but unpaid distributions thereon. If we do not redeem the Series A Preferred Units on July 15, 2022, then the per annum distribution rate will increase by an additional 2.00% per month until such redemption, up to a maximum rate per annum of 20.00%. "
Enjoy the high dividend and trust this team. This mgmt team has been very acquisitive and now thanks to veteran Larry Lee, things have become even better. They know their stuff. The Upstream division will see much better gains in Q2 2015 and later thanks to the significant rise in natural gas and oil prices compared to Q1 2015. The OFS division will also move according to the latest guidance.
Currently, and thanks to the convertible preferred, NSLP has very low Leverage Ratio now and low key multiples compared to the other MLPs.
It is not your fault that you do not understand the basics about the MLPs. It is your teacher's fault. As another poster posted above:
Total EBITDA 2015: at least $30 million
Maintenance Capex for 2015: $4 million
Interest expense for 2015: $4 million. This amount in interest expenses will be halved because NSLP will pay off $40 million to the bank pro forma the recent preferred. On the other hand, NSLP will pay $4.8 million annually to the preferred holders.
So all-in, Maintenance Capex, interest expense for the remaining bank debt ($45M) and the distributions paid to the preferred will total approximately $10 million annually.
Estimated DCF for 2015: at least $20 million
So NSLP will afford to give $6M to the holders of the common units effective June 2015 as noted in the latest PR, and can use the remaining amount of cash flow (~$14M) to make acquisitions. And this specific CEO has been very acquisitive as you know very well.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
For those folks who want to play the Upstream while receiving 15% secured dividend, see New Source (NSLP).
NSLP has an Upstream division that produces 4,000 boepd same like EOX and benefits from the rise in oil and nat gas prices, and an Oilfield services division which generates most of the company's revenue and EBITDA.
Enjoy NSLP's 15% dividend, sit and wait for the oil price to rise. Safe and secure.
NSLP has also very low leverage ratio too. Net Debt to adjsuted EBITDA is well below 2 times.
resident LIAR aka jimjones62,
The board is really disgusted of your repeated LIES and THEORIES. Aren't you tired of doing so for two months now?
7 different posters here have been posting NUMBERS about DCF and EBITDA and FCF. To face them, you keep posting THEORIES and LIES.
All have asked you several times to post excerpts and facts from the balance sheet and the company's presentation, but you have never done so.
You are more disgusting than a worm.
Good summary. Thanks to this FREEC CF, NSLP's CEO said that they plan to go for opportunistic acquisitions in 2015.
So many theories, so much endless blah blah blah......aren't you tired of it? But, if you suffer from inferiority complex, I can make you feel GREAT! I can tell you that you are the BEST, you are GREAT! are you feeling better now?
But, in real, you ignore the FACTS and the company's guidance. You ignore the simple math I presented above based on NSLP's guidance. I tell you the company's GUIDANCE instead of clueless blah blah blah.
And keep in mind that natural gas and oil prices will rise in H2 2015 that will help NSLP's Upstream EBITDA rise even further. Actually, both natural gas and oil have already risen compared to their Q1 2015 levels. Haven't you seen it?
And how did you MISS AGAIN the $0.20 dividend to all unit holders of record on May 11, 2015? How ?
resident LIAR aka jimjones62,
I see you continue posting LIES about NSLP here. You admitted that you have shorted NSLP about one month ago and this is why you have been posting lies about NSLP in every board over the last two months. Unfortunately for you, the balance sheet and the presentation is there. Sorry, pathetic LIAR.
jimjones aka resident LIAR,
First, learn the basics. it is NGL, not LNG.
NGL means nat gas liquids.
LNG means Liquified Natural Gas.
They are two completely different things. Do not demonstrate your ignorance again and again. NSLP produces NGL, not LNG.
Second, man you are really SICK. So now you change your ALLEGATIONS AGAIN!
So now you change your story and you realize that we talk for the CONTINGENT CONSIDERATION, which is THE DIFFERENCE between the price paid and another HYPOTHETICAL price that would be paid IF some EBITDA targets were met.
So now you realize your stupidity that the senior notes of $19M can be RE-FINANCED, again, RE-FINANCED, again RE-FINANCED, again RE-FINANCED, if needed, like all the companies do.
After all, you change your story now. This shows once again the BOTTOMLESS STUPIDITY / IGNORANCE /AGENDA you carry.
Now, you allege that their wells do not make money and Dominion withholds the payments!
fyi, The company had POSITIVE EBITDA from the UPSTREAM segment in Q1 when WTI was below $50 and nat gas was $2.5/mmbtu. READ the Q1 report, LIAR.
fyi, both WTI and nat gas price have risen 20-25% from the Q1 levels, LIAR. So the EBITDA from the UPSTREAM segment has risen, this is not rocket science, given that the production is from CONVENTIONAL wells and has NOT declined.
Contact also the company to see that Dominion does NOT withhold any payments as you allege. Contact NOW. NONE.
You are really SICK.
See today's PRO article from Seeking A website about KEG and you will see why KEG will file for BK by year end.
Same debt ratios like HERO, SARA etc.
I do not see why things for KEG will change dramatically in Q3. New lows will be made by September 2015.