Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. Message Board

And so my long friends. Let's recap Ray..shall we?

In his post i refer to he ADMITS that he was WRONG about the Q that is readily available making point number 1 i made about him..COMPLETELY correct.

In his post below he CLEARLY points out how he was PROMOTING the 82M run rate estimates....Making that point entirely CORRECT as well. In fact..he never started even discussing 88M until OFP helped him along. And EVEN at that...he was STILL wrong....and the company said it was 90M. And so..on point # 2 about him..i was ALSO entirely correct.

And, as far as point # 3..he CLEARLY was saying....again..until OFP helped him along..that Q1 was a growth rate up around 39%. (it may have been 36% that he said). In any event..he was WILDLY off the mark.

And so?????????? Ray....3 strikes..and you are OUT. Like i said...you don't know how to analyze a stock. your math is the pits. And you don't know medicine.
Although you like to pretend you do.

And IN ADDITION..you keep stating that i was WRONG on the Gross run rate.
I was NOT wrong. As you CLEARLY know I said 100M and was referring to the co's TOTAL REVENUES..not just N gross. That includes abreva as well...
AND..i CLEARLY said..my 100M figure was allowing for ANOTHER price increase by years end of around 7%.
And so Ray.it's time for you to apologize for that as well because when you take the co's statement re: N at 90M and ADD..Abreva...and a 7% price increase later this year (if it happens but i DID add it as a qualifier in my 100M estimate)..guess what? You come up with my 100M figure being by far..the closest..and most accurate out of anyones. And certainly MUCH more than the "analys'ts" 82M that YOU continually promoted....and even your "revised" 88M that OFP aided you with.

Ray...that makes 4 strikes against you. And i'm sorry..but ball games don't allow 4 strikes.

Good bye Ray. You've been humilated enough.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

continued
4) in their words and actions i can sense a 1) rights plan and 2) selling profitable assets. In other words..raising more money..to burn.

5) the chinese are coming. Into the EU that is. Setting up shop and calling it Beijing 2. they've already won France Telecom apparently. And how is that when it's ALU's hometown?

6) Our U.S. market IS strong for ALU and without it..they'd be dead meat. While there's still a ways to go...we are getting very mature in LTE though. In other words...what we keep relying on as strength..might wind up fading sooner rather than later. And maybe this is the chinese plan. to flank ALU...to be dominate in the EU by the time the U.S. is built out.
7) No one is sitting stagnant while we dwell on our problems. Eric..NSN..the chinese. They are all in better shape than ALU is and getting BETTER by the day as well.
8) other co's are pursuing our growth business. Samsung and Cisco come to mind. they are heavily funded..tough competitors.
and lastly....
9) Can michel turn this around? Frankly....i don't know. Politics..unions. cash burn. Massive restructuring costs...122M in Q1 alone. And what about those people "not paying". but we'll collect it throughout the year? Was alu doing work that customers couldn't pay for? Was that the source of some of those cash flow issues? I don't know.
10) the chinese will win a lot of business because their costs are so low. And carriers are so heavily in debt from 10 years of buildouts. That's why france telecom had to go with huawei. it really wasnt a choice.

The reason I'm doing what i'm doing is because frankly..i feel that after Q1..we should probably be back at the 1.00 level and the ONLY reason we're not is Michel..and his plan. I feel at this point 10% is my maximum exposure. It would allow me to feel good if we continue to move up. BUT..would allow me to do some deep re~averaging if we don't. At this point my rating is hold~reduce (if someone has "too much" of this). GL to all. TS

Sentiment: Hold

continued... Not a bad deal at all considering my initial 2.30's purchase.

As of yesterday (friday)..i had about a 27% position. About 7% of that is being called away this weekend..taking me to about 20%. At this point i don't intend on replacing it and re~optioning it as i otherwise might. I'd probably change that view if we pulled back into the 1.40's again.
I also have put into place this week additional options given the run up we've had from the 1.30's.
These options would take me out of an additional 10% of my portfolio by next months expiration...effectively selling shares bought at 1.40's and 1.50's...for 1.60 by next months expiration.
This would drive down my overall cost basis to under 1.00 for my entire position and by June expiration...would leave me with a 10% portfolio position. As of right now i've decided that 10% is the most i'm willing to hold going into Michels conference. That's still a top hold for me (which again is normally 10 to 15% portfolio) but it demonstrates my concerns which no longer allow me to feel comfortable with what i had..namely a 20% to 27% position. If the stock came down into the 1.40's or 1.30's again..i'd add to that progressively and would likely option it as well. But at this point I'll feel better about being at 10% by this time in June if we're at this price level or greater. Here's what i'm seeing and feeling....

1) ALU's technology is great and is the reason i'm in this.
2) Q1..bothered me. Given the enormous cost cuts last year I and others thought we could be in the -5 cents range. Instead...we were as bad if not worse overall than last years Q1. It bothered me MORE because this time we're using "loan shark" money. Everything of value is pledged for the goldman loans and we burned 500M euro just like..........that.
3)Michel has said..repeatedly..his plan is "3 years". to which i say...what will impress ME is.."one year".

continued

Dr Ray's medical knowledge appears to be as lacking as both his stock analytical knowledge (isn't he the guy who said Q1 growth was something like 39%?) and his Gross run rate knowledge (his estimate was 82M until prompted by OFP to raise it to 88M which was still wrong).

In any event..Quinidine appears to be readily available in both 100mg and 200mg Tablets.
It's used mostly to treat Arrhythmias in 100mg to 600mg doses with the starting point appearing to be with 200mg tablets.

The same amount ...200mg tablets....are used to treat malaria.

There IS a 324mg EXTENDED RELEASE dose available but certainly the other amounts are available at sources other than a "compound pharmacist".

In any event and in all cases..the amount available is generally at LEAST 10 to 20 times what would be needed for a home concocted or compounded N. A pharmacist would have to prepare the N substitute and IMO would be violating both patent laws AND their professional code of ethics in doing so. It would also have to be done via a prescription from a doctor to the pharmacist..making them an accessory to the crime. While this USED to be done BEFORE N was approved (which was Berts big mistake in one of his failed SA articles apparently not knowing that)...they'd be crazy to do it now seeing there is Nuedexta to prescribe.

As for Ray....quite frankly...it has ceased to amaze me at how wrong he is on so many topics.
He talks a big game as if he has knowledge but the fact that he didn't even know that Q is available in 100mg to 200mg tablets leads me to believe that his medical experience was gained sweeping floors at a walgreens during his alternative High school years. In fact..it may still be his job because it's doubtful he ever graduated HS and he probably refers to the 9th grade as his senior year.

He has no math abilities whatsoever as well. His financial predictions are simply wild guesses that have no basis in anything.

He's a mess in other words.

~TS

Sentiment: Strong Buy

you don't have to sell me on their technology. It's why i'm in this. My main issue is that this isn't about completing Bens plan because CLEARLY that isn't going to be enough. We went through all last years cost cuts only to burn 500M euro in Q1. that's a lot of money and with no improvement on the bottom line. They put up everything of value for the goldman loan package and went through 500M euro like it was nothing in Q1.
Given what they're doing with their nearer term debt they do have some breathing room but it's not unlimited and frankly..a "3 year plan" concerns me. I think it needs to be a "1 year plan". 3 year plan suggests a lot more cash burn. Asset sales...goodbye to the profitable submarine business and enterprise perhaps. A rights plan which they are putting right in the fore front now as well. In other words..spending a lot of time on how to raise more money to support a money losing business. At this point it's just a guess but what i think we're going to hear is how they will be completing Bens plan this year and NOT how they're adding to it..this year. And i don't think that really does anything for Michel to set him apart from Ben. Ben would have done that. Ben would have ADDED to that as well next year.
What will make me feel different about him is if he says the remaining amount is simply not enough for THIS year. that will convey the urgency that it needs to. What would really impress me is to hear in his june (or is it july now?) presentation is that 5 to 7k people MORE..are being let go..this year. That would impress me and the market.

I remain in wait and see mode as to how that goes but again i refer back to his continual comments now about this being his "3 year plan". That doesn't feel like what i'm describing we need at this point. Again..technology wise...they're awesome. But their losses are very significant. I don't know if michel can even give us what i've described. Politics and unions might not let it happen. We'll see.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Well...the stock is up about 25 cents since the annual meeting. Although we might see a little more i think at this point investors want to hear what the plan is. Q1 did throw some cold water on things i think and they burned through a LOT of cash. And the problem with that is this time they mortgaged their very existance to raise it from the wall street loan shark lenders. I do maintain however that it wasn't quite as bad as it appeared and there were bright spots. SG+A and operating loss was down considerably year over year. It's just amazing though that as much cost cutting as they did last year (supposedly)....that it didn't move the needle even an inch in the Q1 comparison to last year. There is no way that Bens remaining plan will now be enough and Michel has got to improve on it by quite a bit. He is presenting his plan as his "3 year plan" and that doesn't sound a whole lot like he will be RAISING it this year from what Ben was going to do. It seems more like a tack on....like ben WOULD have done anyway. It also seems like they're set now on pushing for a right's plan and PROBABLY another asset sale like submarine and/or enterprise. I don't have a problem with that as long as it FIXES the issues. If it's just meant though to burn through like genysys was then we shareholders need to have a problem with it.

I think the question is..can he get more job cuts pushed through? It took Ben 1/2 year + to get half his through and even at that half those were simply jobs lost through dropping some managed contracts...not really CUTS per se that improved productivity. There is a lot here going on that would NEVER be going on if this were a U.S. based company. It's not and we have to deal with that reality. It's a Socialist society and it was even strenghtened by the recent new president that was elected. And they are about the PEOPLE..not shareholders. And not corporate profits. I remain bullish...i love their technology... but at this point I think it's wait + see.

Sentiment: Hold

btw..remember that Cat that bought the million........SHARES .....worth of options right before earnings?
doubled his money in 2 days so far.

definitely a transaction the SEC should be looking at. I wouldn't doubt that it leads back to china and someone who was tipped off about their good report.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Folks..let me add one more thing About dang. If you listen to the C. call from a couple days ago you'll hear the CEO talking about their mobile strategy. And she said this. SHE BELIEVES THAT DANG IS NOW THE LARGEST ECOMMERCE COMPANY in terms of mobile...IN CHINA.

LOOK at this companies market cap. 400M +. This is like amazon when it was at it's VERY LOWS.

Margins..were up BIG this quarter. Revenues..BEAT. EPS....BEAT. Q2 consensus....WAY ahead of estimates.
IMO..they can probabbly do -9 cents this quarter versus -19 consensus.

Justlen has a problem with all this apparently but apparently he's deaf dumb and blind as to why i would be excited about this. And you can see the result of my excitement the last few days for yourself.
AGAIN..i'm not calling this short term anymore. I did that already. Now it's up. I will say this though.
this is still CHEAP AS IT GETS. This ipo'd and hit 35/share. Now it's 5.65 and performing VERY well.

I'll shut up now. (lol..maybe) Just trying to help some of my Avnr friends with a monster pick.

As for Justlen..it's not hard to see why his RV has the name mattel written on the side.
maybe he'd better leave the real investing to those like myself.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

given the ENORMOUS gains dang has had the last few days it would seem that my call was exceptional. sorry you missed out on it. Loser.

As for my revision shortly after launch...it's there for anyone who would care to look it up. I realize you're happy distorting that fact but that doesn't make what you're saying true.

As for the million Dang "contracts"....CLEARLY...anyone with an 8th grade education would know that was a typo and was meant to say SHARES those contracts were representing. Do you really need that much help when you're investing? Apparently so given the way you've missed my enormous call on dang the last few days.

And now..Bert...don't you have anything better to do? Surely they must be handing out free food at the soup kitchen. Get over there and get your share. We don't want you and your family starving to death on all your trading blunders the last couple of years. I mean..let's face it. You've been a total disaster.

~TS

Sentiment: Strong Buy

DANG Baby! who's in on the morning call? LOTS more where this came from my friends. :)

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Believe me..Rimjobs advice is so bad he doesn't even listen to it himself.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Everyone hold onto your wallets tight !
Rims giving some more financial advice.

That scares me and i'm fearless.

Sentiment: Strong Buy