Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. Message Board

Ray, pardon my not responding to your post other than to say I'm finding it difficult to even get through one sentence of your posts anymore. You're like the boy who cried wolf who was so dishonest so often that even if he did ever make a case for telling the truth it just then falls on deaf ears. From your first post until now you have done absolutely nothing except to attempt to spin a negative tale about this company and drug while proclaiming yourself to be long the stock. While i don't think that someone who is long necessarily always has to be bullish and in fact the simple fact of the matter is if they weren't overall bullish why then would they be long at all? You've posted nothing positive about Avnr....ever. Quite the reverse..you've always tried even to take positives and spin them into negatives. I don't know whether you're short...whether you're a paid basher..or, whether you have some other axe to grind with Avnr and/or shareholders...but there isn't a long on this board who hasn't seen through your act. At least a reputable long. I presented above what OFP said in a post. If there's more to it because you and he have spun a yarn a mile long that makes me incorrect....then so be it. But it's because you can't say anything directly without having it mean something else. And i have no time...patience..or frankly..interest in what you have to say because it never comes across as honest anyway.

The fact of the matter is this. Avnr seems to be on a break even trajectory for this year. And, that was even without the added benefit of the EU which now has chmp recommendation.

I think your game is up Ray. Whatever reasons you may have for playing it in the first place. It does seem MORESO to me that you MAY be a former employee with an axe to grind...jealous of their success in moving on without you. If that's the case...I'm sorry Ray. But I nor anyone here caused that if its the case.

Other than that..I don't care what you think...about anything.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I agree with RT. Goldman could care less if they don't pay. As far as they're concerned their loan is backed by everything of value that ALU has. Not to say they didn't do their DD in making the loan and ALU did present a compeling case as to why they could pay it back. But if they don't pay it they're fully secured and will get their money back that way.
As for the reason for a possible rights issue..it's to give ALU some options in terms of a way to raise more money or even to pay off the goldman loan down the road at what might be more favorable terms.
I wouldn't read too much into it other than that right now as i don't think they'll do anything with it for a couple of years and only if they both had to and it was favorable to them to do so.

Where ALU stands right now and what their future plans are was spelled out in the goldman loan details. ALU believes that the goldman loan will save the company and this gives them time to execute fully on their performance plan and what undoubtedly will be either an enhancement to it now or an extension of it. It probably will be an extension of it because Michel has already described his june presentation as his "3 year plan". I don't really have a problem with that as long as his ONE YEAR plan will stabilize this company. In other words..break even in a year is what is needed here and then years 2 and 3 to build upon that.
I just don't think he's going to get away with anything less than that really because to simply sell more assets to support uneeded employees isn't going to win him any support. Q1 was weak and will continue to be weak for a couple of years. It's the nature of this business. But he has to show that the rest of the year will balance it out at least to break even.
Estimates right now ARE calling for 2014 to be break even and so if he can meet that then I think we'll be in decent shape. I think he has to target 5k to 7k more job cuts to have any credibility. And, to do it soon.

~TS
jmho

Sentiment: Strong Buy

do earnings even matter to stocks like this? Look at amazon...I don't think they've ever had a year where they had earnings. Last year they lost around 30 cents /share i think. This quarter they're scheduled to make about 7 cents. 7 cents..for a 250.00 stock. That's pretty remarkable. Or, maybe insane. i don't know which.

What has always driven amazon was the growth prospects. It took it from 2 per share to 250 per share.
And personally, I think that Dang just might have that same potential. Crazy? Consider this. We have so few shares outstanding that to us as shareholders 250.00 share would only represent about an 18Billion market cap. Compare that to Amazons 117 Billion. We'd STILL only be 1/10th the value they are.

Dang would have to go to about 2500.00 per share to EQUAL amazons valuation.

3.87 is looking quite cheap compared to that..eh?

Folks..here is the thing. This is NO startup internet company. Dang has a VERY solid customer base and in fact is the largest online bookseller in all of china from what i understand. What they are now doing is leveraging that position into general merchandise. What seems to be doing VERY well for them now is specialty clothing and baby items as well. Dang has a very good clientele ...people with money to spend. And they give great service to them.

Ecommerce in china is growing very rapidly. It's like the earliest days of the U.S. And we have a VERY solid presence in that market and what i think is a very talented and experienced management team.

I think at this point investors are like Amazon investors and are more concerned with growth versus earnings.
Like management said in the last Conf. call they could be profitable TODAY if they wanted to just by dropping their self procurement items and going almost strictly with marketplace vendors. they don't want to do that because the former allows them to have in stock items their customers want. All in all, i think we're on to something good with Dang. Give them time.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Stop lying scammer...OFP clearly stated this "After subtracting out Abreva revs, the gross N sales equivalent would be ~$97M"

Sentiment: Buy

The only problem is...your 88M number missed by a mile as well.
Which takes me BACK to the subject matter of this thread which was OFP stating I was commiting "genocide" with the numbers by estimating our Gross run rate was 100M Versus HIS own 97M...while YOUR statements ranged from 82M to what you now say was 88M.

OFP is nothing more than a short basher as well along With you.

Are you two related?

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Sigh....Raythescam caught red handed.....said by him a few hours ago.

"Note that analyst estimates are for gross revenues of only $82.66 million for the FY ending 9/30/13 which is up 100.3% from the FY ending 9/30/12."

He was also promoting 88M in other posts.

OFP corrected him to 97M
My number all along was 100M.

And OFP says i'm guilty of number genocide?

LOL!
In any event folks..there you have it. Ray caught in a lie..red handed. feel free to click his yahoo name and look at the post yourself from about 5 hours ago.

It's so hard dealing with him..isn't it? the way he twists and wiggles out of his false statements.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

So..let's get this straight folks. Raymond comes up with a number of ....GROSS 82.6M initially. I CORRECT HIM..and tell him that we're looking at about 100M GROSS instead. OFP comes waddling along...accuses me of genocide (if N were a people. LOL! ).....tells raymond he's not sure why he argues with me....and proceeds to say that the number is 97M.

If i committed genocide with my number then apparently raymond committed suicide.

OFP..given that this is now what...3 times in the recent past that Ray has been so far off base it's been unbelieveable...shouldn't you really be saying..TS..i'm not sure why you're arguing with him?

Just a thought.

lol.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

"Current gross revenues are probably about $88 million"

more like 100M to 102M which makes my numbers right on target considering a doubling of scripts in 2 years + the EU.
In fact...I'm being conservative counting only about 10% growth per quarter.

Give it up short basher.

Your days are finished.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Sorry but i don't agree. While i DO understand the frustration with the stock price I just don't think it's reflecting the value of this franchise nor the efforts put forth by management and employees. I think our reward as shareholders will come in due time and with more patience. Once this company reaches break even and starts posting quarterly earnings it's just going to be a whole different ball game. We'll have the US and EU rolling as well as all the other uses in time and DDEX patent life of 22 years to look forward to.

I sincerely believe we'll be a 50+ dollar stock in time given all of this.

They just need to keep their eye on the ball ..doing what they're doing which is a great job.
And we need to continue to be patient.

~Congo
jmho

Sentiment: Strong Buy

One couldn't help but to notice the short bashers were all over my estimates. The interesting thing however is that I think it's even being very conservative.
We're at about 4500/wk script levels here in the U.S. already and it took about 2 years to get to this level.
Without looking at growth PERCENTAGES at all let's just ask ourselves should we be able to double that in another 2 years time? Well guess what? That should work out to ONLY around 10% or so per quarter to achieve that. Conservative? I sure think so especially given the mass marketing effort, VA collaberation and ongoing research into other uses.

As for the EU (which for some reason OFP wants to forget per his statements yesterday even though we now have CHMP recommendation)...it remains to be seen what we'll see from there and how we see it but the fact of the matter is this. The EU .........is ONE AND ONE HALF TIMES the size of the U.S. If we get a big pharma partner behind this with the size and scale to roll that out quickly...why couldn't they at LEAST do in script numbers what WE OURSELVES Did here in the U.S in the first 2 years? Well guess what..that's what my assumption then is also based on which i noted above.

Conservative? You bet it is.

And so....what would we have? A combined 13,000/wk in a couple years time. And again....remember this..that's just in 2 years. We'll have 22 years of DDEX patent life to look forward to. And all the other uses.

My 50+ price target is suddenly looking pretty darn conservative...isn't it? You bet folks. You bet it is.

Folks....RayRim the scammer is finished. And he#$%$ knows it.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

fantastic surging market? The market is up about 2% from the day that was posted.
Avnr has outperformed it completely while the others have traded with the market.

So much for your analytical skills Bert. BTW, how's the vegas to east coast journey going?
Are you walking?

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Good Lord. Can someone PLEASE help CJ understand that alu simply is NOT going to get cost of sales to 60% ?
That would represent 40% gross margins and it just isn't going to happen.

The company themselves has CLEARLY set their target at the 35% level. That is contained in the Goldman documents.

35% WILL BE ESSENTIALLY B/E for Q1 when combined with a roughly 10% futher drop in SG+A (note Paul CLEARLY said in the last CC that they are NOT done with SG+A reductions) ..when combined with a VERY modest further reduction in R+D (3 to 5%)....when combined with getting their financing costs in line and when EXITING restructuring and SAVING 120M Euro PER QUARTER..something that CJ CLEARLY forgot to figure into his alternative middle school accounting degree analysis of the issue in his past posts.

You see folks..BREAK EVEN for Q1 is OK. Because when you carry through ALL these items to Q2...3 and 4....you wind up with a decent profit for the year because those quarters IMPROVED revenues and heavier weighting towards the latter half of the year in this industry will see to that. Much like 2011 looked.

You simply cannot cut your way into profitability in Q1. At some point you have to look to improving business to do that.
And you certainly won't be getting to 40% Gross margins. Not in this industry and not with the chinese threat.

Restructuring costs are an enormous drain on this company and the faster we can get out of it we will realize those savings as well. Once the company is out of this major restructuring mode then they can go back to fine tuning. things like maintaining wage freezes and losing employees through attrition. And things like working on their product mix. IMHO..it's going to be VERY hard to ever get Q1 to be a profitable quarter. The seasonal nature of this business in certain areas makes that a long term goal at best. When Q1 is break even however...Q3 and Q4 will look VERY good indeed. At least from where we are now. 35% GM is the goal. Not 40%.

TS

Sentiment: Strong Buy

"Mr. Expert wasn’t aware that AT&T and Sprint are prohibited to do business with Huawei in the US."

Just the latest thing you're entirely wrong about.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

let's keep this going. It's fun.
SO..right now we have 4500/wk. after 2 years. Does that mean in 2 more years JUST from the US pba market we have....9000/wk?
Another 4000/wk maybe from the EU?

What's that? 13,000 wk total?

Guess what folks..1.50 in earnings.
20 to 30 per share. :)

Oh Ray rim..you silly ..silly fool. Don't you know it's harmful to your financial health to bet against one of my top holdings?

And that's only 2 years. How about...22 years? With ALL the other uses as well :)

lol folks....rayrim is so finished.

So finished.

~Congo

Sentiment: Strong Buy

then why isn't verizon..AT+T and sprint using huawei? I mean..if price is the only consideration as you suggest..they'd be crazy not to...right? Or maybe you and CJ are wrong?

Sentiment: Strong Buy