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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

tradingbasis 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 9, 2014 11:38 AM Member since: Jul 1, 2003
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  • tradingbasis tradingbasis Apr 9, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    This stock's float is 90% owned by institutional investors. These investors tend to hold for a long period of time, but when they do sell or add a position, price will be dramatically volatile. Additionally, any hedge fund or funds can affect the price by buying or selling large positions since the float is relatively small.

    I believe the the recent declines were driven by three concerns:1) overall belief that this market (not necessarily BX) is overvalued and deserves a major pullback of 10% or more. 2) the hot IPO market is too overheated and could also experience a dramatic pullback, and 3) a technical breakdown of BX stock price. Lastly, since all of these happened in waves one after another, it had a dramatic effect on price.

    Let's face it, a down IPO market will affect BX's ability to exit these investments. Today's issue of LQ did not help since it priced well under the median IPO price range. So, this stock will not go up until those fears are quashed and even with a good ER this quarter, I fear this stock will underperform until we get the idea of a bear IPO market behind us.

    The good news is, I believe this is temporary and we will return to the highs and beyond by the end of this year

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    This bears repeating...What the Fffff....?

    by billlewisiv Apr 8, 2014 10:32 AM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Apr 8, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    It likely will retest the 29.50 intraday low on 1/27 of 29.51. If it breaks that, it will not have support until 27.50. This is huge rotation out of P/E and other financial stocks heavy on leverage into safer blue chip or non-growth stocks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tradingbasis tradingbasis Apr 7, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    We are getting lumped in with Real Estate and investors are leaving this stock in droves.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 27, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    Ironically, we are through 32.46 in After-hours with tiny volume (32.50). hope it holds

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 27, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    BX stock price consolidated nicely from Feb 1st to the 20th then ran past 35. This consolidation also helped support yesterday's bounce and today's gains. For this stock to get to $40, it needs to consolidate before another run. otherwise, the gains won't hold.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 27, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    32.46 is around the 50 day moving average, so hence the intraday support breakdown yesterday and the resistance today. We need volume to break through the 50 day resistance which we do not have even with news of the IPO, Gates, and Versace. Looks like BX is subject to the will of the market at this point. We need to consolidate for a while before we move up again, IMO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Tradingbasis...what about them puts baby!!!

    by indymack6 Mar 12, 2014 10:33 AM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 14, 2014 12:50 AM Flag

    Covered my puts yesterday and bought 35 Calls for Mar and April expiry. The Ukraine news sure spooked the market and I had to sell my March 35 calls for a small loss this morning. I added April 35 calls around the low today thinking we should get some bargain hunters soon. Since we are still above the 20 SMA, I view this PB as constructive. If we break through 32.70 with volume and close below, we may see 32 before its over.

    I still am long my common shares and will be looking to add some calls tomorrow if we test yesterdays low and get bounce. If not, I will be looking to load up around 32.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Next stop?

    by indymack6 Mar 5, 2014 12:35 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 6, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    Sold my Mar 35 calls for a 320% profit today as it hit my PT. I bought some Mar 33 Puts only to protect my long position. I want to see a PB, probably tomorrow so I can continue to trade around my position. I am still bullish long term though. Good Luck

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Next stop?

    by indymack6 Mar 5, 2014 12:35 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 5, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    There is very little resistance at this point hence the move up on low volume today even though the S & P 500 is flat. The chart show we will have a little resistance around 34.80. To get through 35, we need a catalyst to help with volume. I bought March 35 calls and am holding them to see if we get that catalyst. I am also long shares bought last year. My end of March price target is $35 and and $37 for April.

    Currently, we are moving towards the top of a uptrend channel and we should get a pullback unless the volume picks up a little. My guess is we hit 34.80 maybe 35 and get a pullback to 33.40's. In mid March, we bust through 35.

    Timing is everything.... Possible headwinds would be delayed IPO for La Quinta, bad news for housing market, escalation in Russia, and other economic woes. This is my opinion which is usually conservative.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    33

    by charles_ponzi_2000 Feb 26, 2014 10:11 AM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Mar 4, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Intraday high was 33.81 with the close being 33.35. Today is a new 52 week high close.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by ripmoab Feb 24, 2014 1:03 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 24, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    Great Volume and I concur with Sam. I would like to see a close above $33.19 w/ volume over the next few trading days to confirm a breakout. $33.19 is the highest close since the IPO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just can't pull the trigger on this one. . .

    by finger_lakes Feb 21, 2014 1:49 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 21, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    He is a troll, just trying to spread fear.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just can't pull the trigger on this one. . .

    by finger_lakes Feb 21, 2014 1:49 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 21, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    Look at other PE stocks..... Options are how management is rewarded for performance and so it goes that you will see insider sales consistently with these stocks. Also, logic dictates you look at the history of insider sales on BX and when you do u will see that millions more shares were sold at lower price levels and the stock price has continued upward .

    Due your own due diligence but know that insider sales is only a small piece of the puzzle.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Amazing BX: 9 down days out of last 10...

    by billlewisiv Feb 20, 2014 9:06 AM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 20, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Pretty simple stuff.... Sellers want to sell above 31.50 and buyers want to buy below 31.50. When overall markets get spooked, then the buying fades and the selling increases and vice versa. A stock like this is mostly institutionally owned and so the direction in price is driven buy big buy and sell orders. Right now, we have a big fund selling and one buying that is why we are not going up or going down very much. I just hope the buying continues and the selling dissipates very soon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Groundhog Day continues...

    by billlewisiv Feb 19, 2014 9:44 AM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 19, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Its definitely the $32 crowd with ants in their pants. When stock's price pops and then gets sold off and comes back again and repeats. This means there are large volume of shares getting sold on those pops and buyers coming back in to support below 31.50. Since we are having decent volume, around the daily average, I feel the buyers are still there its consolidation. If the buyers leave, then its a top.

    BTW, it took 23 trading days to break through the resistance from the previous earnings report and IMO it will likely take as many or more since we are at much higher price point now (higher risk vs reward) and also because we are closer to the IPO (more sellers) price we roughly have another two weeks more. The 50 day moving average is just under the trendline and the MACD is flat.

    I can say one thing, we are definitely in neutral right now and I hope the driver doesn't shift us into reverse.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BX just cannot hold gains - this is getting

    by k1ltnow Feb 18, 2014 12:23 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 18, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    That $32 resistance is holding us down at these lower volumes. The good news is we have been making higher lows and the bad news is we will probably consolidate here for a while longer. I had 20 contracts of Feb 30 calls which i exited today due to expiry on Friday. I am still holding my common stock which I have had for a while now. Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Div

    by imjoel00 Feb 15, 2014 5:54 AM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 16, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    Got mine today. Ameritrade

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    57 Million a year in Executive pay + Bonuses ! !

    by six2abc Feb 14, 2014 12:30 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 14, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    That is low in the industry. KKR is much higher closer to $100 MM and Blackrock is even higher when you count stock options. Hell, even GE is Exec pay higher and it is a dog stock.

    Pay is performance based so in recent years it has been higher and in the past especially during the downturn.

    You are just a basher!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 7, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    Consolidating is true. We should know in a next week or the following week at the latest. It has a very tight bull flag formation with lots of volume.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just added 20% to my position @ 31.275

    by fishart4 Feb 7, 2014 4:09 PM
    tradingbasis tradingbasis Feb 7, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    Most everyone does not understand dividend stocks. After Ex-date, we usually get some distribution for several days. The added weakness from selling pressure was a result of disappointing price action after a great quarter. Evidently, much of December's price appreciation was price in mainly due to everyone expecting a blowout quarter. Frankly, the recent weakness is very mild when you consider how much the indices were down in January.

    Technically, we are putting in a bull pennant much the same way it did right after the last ER. That consolidation bounced off the bottom of the trend-line support several times before resuming upward from 25.60 to 33.41. It is now behaving much like it did then, only now we are bouncing off the uptrend line with the 50MA right below it as secondary support. The next breakout should be next week or the week after at the latest and we will see a 37.40 measured move. Of course this will take several weeks to get there.

    If this bull flag fails, then we will see below 30's again probably 29.70's and consolidate there for a while.. It would take both a huge market correction and some very bad news from BX to go lower than 29.60 in my opinion.

    So I am playing it with both call options and common shares and I believe we will see mid 30's in march and 37's in April. If we break the 50MA on heavy volume (which is 30.60 right now). I will sell my calls and buy puts to protect my common shares.

    With both the 50MA and uptrend line intact, I think you adding here will turnout to be a good decision if your patient.

    Sentiment: Buy

BBRY
7.21+0.07(+0.98%)Apr 15 4:00 PMEDT

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