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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

traskriver40 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 10, 2014 1:27 PM Member since: Dec 28, 2001
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  • Reply to

    3.3Billion New Insurance Written in October!

    by breaker098 Nov 10, 2014 9:21 AM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Nov 10, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    I agree, delinquents down as well. Why does the stock still carry such a high short interest? This company has a large run rate business, but 14% short. RDN has 26% short, with a growing book of profitable business as well. It seems like it is some type of downside risk protection position, but I can't quite understand it. The companies are clearly going to do better in the coming years and have large DTA and tax loss carry forwards. Seems like they have a good stream of future profits here and yet the stock currently does not reflect it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HEY GUYS, GNW WAS CUT TO HALF..NOT FUNNY!!

    by bernie02 Nov 6, 2014 12:24 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Nov 7, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    I bailed, but made money from my buy price. On the CC they could not commit to when they could get the LTC costs under control. This will bounce a bit and it is still headed down. The company is worth a lot more in a break up. That's the play now. The Mi's are doing very well. Who knows when and how they will do it, but the sharks will be circling and the mgt has lost all credibility. They should have pre-announced.

  • Reply to

    Weekly chart

    by lordofdoggtown Oct 31, 2014 11:52 AM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 31, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    Thank you for your charting review.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q3 Coverage

    by bettertobelucky10 Oct 31, 2014 1:02 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 31, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    Thanks rkymtgeo. I've been hearing the general feeling is that the well capitalized companies will win out through this price drop. I look for LINN to try and take advantage of their size to shift around more assets to their/our benefit.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 31, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    If you had been following the various information sources you would know john is correct. Maybe you could share with us your source of how you know Maxine has not come out in favor?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice rise today ... News imminent?

    by joeschmo_4 Oct 24, 2014 2:34 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 26, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    It traded at 8.44. I think it could be a settling of a trade made earlier, but I don't see it either on NASDQ. All the stocks on my ipad for iHub use the same close time, aapl, BA, FB, etc, 1300. They continue on to show afterhours quotes. This is also is on my iPhone and has been a nice way to reviewing trade volumes. It is not when I am actually purchasing a stock. I'll watch and compare between the two aftermarket reports to see any discrepancies. I've seen a number of large afterhours trades of fnmas this way as well, confirmed by others when brought up in discussion. What I reall would like to understand is why is there such a large short position on MTG and also RDN? Could banks be using them to hedge on the downside of the mortgage business? It seems to me with the long term cash flow stream of good mortgages this should be trading higher. It seems to be trading at a pretty big discount to earnings pe's of other financial stocks. You have any ideas why it's been trading so low?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice rise today ... News imminent?

    by joeschmo_4 Oct 24, 2014 2:34 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 25, 2014 8:10 PM Flag

    River, respectfully incorrect. I live on the west coast of the U.S., 1300 is when the market closes here. Nagra, I see you on a number of the chat sites. Check out RDN on both NASDQ and iHub, they both show exactly the same afterhours trades. The MTG trades however differ from iHub and NASDQ by the 1,092,000 share trade. Check it out, I can't explain it, but it's there.

  • Reply to

    Nice rise today ... News imminent?

    by joeschmo_4 Oct 24, 2014 2:34 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 25, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    I showed the trade going through at 13:00.25. The amount is still posted on the iHub board trading record. It's been accurate from the past from what I have seen in other stocks. That said I went to the NASDQ board and couldn't find it either, hmmm. While at the NASDQ board I checked on MTG short interest it is coming down a bit, 10% but still high. I'm perplexed by the high short interest. Any ideas shut it is so high?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice rise today ... News imminent?

    by joeschmo_4 Oct 24, 2014 2:34 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 24, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    1,092,000 shares traded after market today. Maybe shorty closing out his position?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 22, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    Bill, Are you an experienced user of Big Charts? Seriously, I'm looking to recreate a chart of two moving trend lines, 13 month and 4 month DJI .

  • Reply to

    FnFs & MTG will be a good portfolio for retirement?

    by irs_hater Oct 21, 2014 11:50 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 22, 2014 12:14 AM Flag

    I have a bit less Mtg and more FNMA/FMCC than breaker. It does seem like two complementary offset positions.

  • traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 9, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Yes, It is good that the issues are coming to light. It was a favorites they are playing. Paulson DID provide insider trading information to his hedge fund contacts (as published by Bloomberg). Trsy has managed the FNMA actions and DeMarco did not act in a proper conservator role. DeMarco could be very liable for his actions as conservator.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings October 15 on deck

    by rick.nagra Oct 8, 2014 12:52 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 9, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    rivver, You may already know this but the trsy couldn't take over the whole company because of the outstanding 5 trillion dollars in mortgage debt. The US could not assume that debt it would have caused them to vote on raising the debt ceiling. So by law and accounting standards they had to settle for 79.9% of the companies through the warrants. If they had taken 80% or more it triggers the mandatory placement of the debt on the takers (US Gov.) balance sheet. Once the companies were clearly going to prosper the trsy was stuck implementing the sweep to grab further all the profits. That's the pickle the US Gov. has now got themselves in. I've been in it for a long time and still am. I've appreciated yours and many others comments here and on the RDN board, I still hold the Mi's and think they will continue to do well. Back to the Fannies, the story reads like a Clancy novel. We'll see if the FEDS want this dirty laundry out.I have sincere empathy for the 12,000+ Fannie employees living through all these shenanigans.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why this make take a while ...

    by imtheshadow Oct 3, 2014 8:21 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 4, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    Shadow, I'm a long like you. Why couldn't the fannies just float a bond offering to raise equity? They have plenty of cash flow. This would increase their capital in a reasonable time and allow release within a year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Perry has filed an appeal!

    by doggin49 Oct 2, 2014 4:42 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 2, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Link?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 1, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Your logic of this just may be correct, we'll soon see. I don't think it will be until March 2015 to get this settled. I don't think you could pay for this wild a ride at any amusement park.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The Big Boys are Flexing...

    by sanity6 Oct 1, 2014 11:11 AM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 1, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    I came up with the same logic. I did know that there would someday be a washout day to drive many out. It's always hard to stomach through it. The only way is to keep your position manageable, not too large in relation to the rest of your portfolio. I think they are working through a settlement and today drives the retail guys out. All along the FEDS have said they do not want the retail to profit. Also consider that Paulson advised HF before the down. Seems like history can repeat itself. We'll see, my wife says this has read like a Clancy novel.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any shot at this breaking $9 in 6 months??

    by vapr172 Sep 28, 2014 2:25 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Oct 1, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    I agree and the previous months stats have been great. Why then is the short interest so high in the stock? Both RDN and MTG (but not GNW) have very large short positions on them. Can anyone provide their reasoning? My belief is that these two companies have strong income streams from their books of business. The improving NIW, lowering volume of distressed mortgages and RE mortgage volume (even a smaller number doesn't really effect their earnings too much) should continue to improve their earnings. They also both have the ability to recapture reserves back into income. With my scenario I don't understand the large short positions. What am I missing?
    Thanks

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the price has fallen?

    by manipulation_decipherer Sep 21, 2014 1:53 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Sep 21, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Sounds very plausible. Big shorts would need to exit the positions before FNMA would be released. There have been massive instiutional buys during each of the previous selling days. Some groups are placing big investments long, they wouldn't be doing it now without a deeper understanding.

  • Reply to

    Last Paragraph in SEC Report Says It All

    by smauney Sep 11, 2014 12:15 PM
    traskriver40 traskriver40 Sep 11, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Wow, I like that testimony. With 23 lawsuits the GSE's are going to be released. I just do not believe we will not follow the rule of law. Thank you for this post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

RDN
17.00+0.01(+0.06%)Nov 21 4:05 PMEST

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