I have a significant amount of FNMA/FMCC and MGT as well. Interesting times on both companies. The rhetoric on the fannies has never been more positive and yet the PPS has declined. Hopefully we see some movement. In Federal court case (not about the fannies) I read a ruling where the judge decided against the admin. I sure hope we see some realistic judgments soon.
Thx riv, I've appreciated your posts over the years too. Not lost on anyone here I bet was today's announcement of retail home sales up 14.7%. The only constraint was supply, not buyers. Gee since the deep recession we've been under supplied with housing along both coasts. I would hope mgt could have said we're improving all our metrics, including carefully managing profitability with an eye towards an improving housing market. With our book of business, capital structure and competitiveness we feel we can compete in strong or weak markets. Hopefully mgt will spend the few tens of thousands and bring in some pr consulting to craft their message better. They don't have to pump just be excited about the business they are creating.
I think growth in the mid teens with a strong likelihood of similar profitability would normally be considered a good growth stock. Many stocks exhibited this growth rate and were treated very well. I didn't want to comment until after I read the conference call. The CEO did okay the CFO was a little weak I thought. Neither looked forward to the housing future very well they didn't use demographics to look towards the future. The raising pricing of their lower FICA loans was a complete disaster. Yes it makes sense to charge more for a mandated riskier loan, but why spend valuable space in the pr about it. It's a small amount of loans and they ended up having a lot of questions about it. When they peeled the onion back, it's a small amount of revenue and earnings loss. The mgt. seemed to want to make a public statement about the raise in rates more for the industry and FHFA it seemed. It torpedoed their shareholders and stock. They needed to let that irritant go and focus on the growth and improvement of the business. I was a pr disaster that made fund managers wonder about the mgt. the numbers for the year, quarter and going forward were good. This stock should have a 10 to low teens pe with a better call. Blame this one squarely on the communication. I think that is what has me and so many of us really #$%$ off. They are running a good company and it should be a solid performer. Mgt blew it and we, the owners, are suffering.
Thank JF and joe, I appreciate your comments. Yes a bit disappointed that they missed and that the mgt can't be a bit more positive towards their future. I like the business and the millions of loans that make up their revenue. I have yet to listen/read the cc. Was their any questions about remaining dta's or the larger reserves than historical averages? I guess they are holding them in case the Feds up capital requirements again. Until fmna/fmcc issues resolve these two can't operate in a long term manner. Good company, doubled earnings in a year and trades at 6pe even with forward growth in mid teens. Oh well.
rivvir or someone: What is a normal primary delinquent inventory amount for MTG? I've seen it continue to come down and know as it drops MTG becomes even more profitable with fewer reserves. Been in this stock since sub $2, never understood why the short interest is so large (although half now of what it used to be a year ago). Merry Christmas to all and I'll even forgive the idiots who post offensive garbage.
rivvir, I've been a long term holder of the stock it's been a good ride until mid this year. I think they have more DTA's to recapture and I hear very good comments on their competitiveness in the industry.