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Omeros Corporation (OMER) Message Board

tredleon 550 posts  |  Last Activity: 48 minutes ago Member since: Sep 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Kreg Palko

    by teo_099 16 hours ago
    tredleon tredleon 48 minutes ago Flag

    Watched the video and the striking thing is that they said he was only diagnosed with ALS a year ago, so he was obviously progressing very rapidly. He states in the video that he has experienced improvements, but I assume when you are progressing as rapidly as he was, it is like trying to stop a freight train - minor improvements vs continued rapid decline could be very meaningful? Seems like ALS has a lot of different flavors and it will be hard to assess what actually qualifies as "clinical benefit"?

  • They have back to back robo-reports, the first saying the stock is a strong sell, because of earnings estimate changes (for a development stage biotech w no product revenues) and the next one hi-liting that the stock just jumped 10% in one day. I suppose they make money off of these worthless "reports" because there are ads tied to them, but they can't be attracting any clients with this kind of nonsense analysis.

  • Reply to

    Taiwan SPY License granted?

    by buzzybob Aug 19, 2014 12:52 PM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 29, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    endo - you just confirmed what I have been harping about - Arun isn't "methodical" - he is missing opportunities. When was the last time you heard of a company getting regulatory approval in a foreign country without already having a marketing partner lined up? They are dropping the ball here and the revenue growth is suffering - that is why investors are bailing.

  • Reply to

    Lots of "What if's"

    by jim_himmel Aug 28, 2014 6:44 PM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 28, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    himmel - you're not "throwing water on the fire" here - there never was a fire, just misguided speculation. Every point you made is perfectly rational, unlike the pointless pumping making Ebola out to be some great opportunity that would change the company's fortunes - it isn't. Even if sending doses to the jungle worked flawlessly and cured 100% of the patients, Ebola is not a money-making market - there is no system in place to pay SRPT or any other company what it would cost to produce the drugs.

    If curing sick,dying people from Africa were a money-making proposition, you would see billions of dollars of sales for treatments in malaria, TB, etc. being generated - there isn't, because Africa can't afford to pay for them.

  • Reply to

    AF should not read this post

    by simp08801 Aug 28, 2014 8:51 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 28, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    simp - on what "earthly" logic would providing SRPT's drug "help the containment effort"? The reason these countries can't contain the outbreak is because they have 3rd world healthcare facilities - they have trouble identifying who has the disease and getting them quarantined and handled properly. How is providing SRPT's drug going to change that equation? Even if you assumed that they had the capacity to utilize the drug effectively (i.e. dose it properly to patients that aren't already too far advanced), treating and saving patients is not going to control the outbreak. Give it a rest - Ebola is nothing but a potential distraction for this company.

  • tredleon tredleon Aug 27, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    More likely it will be used off-label with the Fabry ERT's - the company was moving down the road toward doing a combination study, before they shifted gears and decided to develop their own ERT, which won't hit the market for at least several years, so docs may want to use Migalistat with existing ERT's to enhance effectiveness and reduce immune response issues.

  • Reply to

    Zachs

    by buckboard221 Aug 25, 2014 4:19 PM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 27, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    What "work" from Zach's have you ever found respectable. They issue ridiculous analyses of earnings estimate changes for development stage biotechs and the few qualitative analyses they provide on biotech pipelines and clinical prospects are typically thin and worthless. I can't imagine anyone pays attention to their releases and am baffled how they could make any money at what they do?

  • Reply to

    waaaaay overbought

    by indymoff Aug 24, 2014 5:41 PM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 24, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    "weren't that conclusive" - positive results for both endpoints required a 50% overlap of the confidence intervals between the two groups - both endpoints achieved 100% overlap of the confidence intervals. 46 of the 48 patients that completed the trial elected to stay on the drug during the voluntary extension phase. What exactly is inconclusive, or is it that you don't understand the meaning of the word? Idiot!

  • Reply to

    Knoepfler Lab Stem Cell Blog - Ted Harada

    by errico51 Aug 22, 2014 11:59 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 22, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    Thanks for the link. Does anyone know whether Ted only participated in the earlier trial or did he also get a 2nd round of stem cells in the current trial?

  • Reply to

    Long on FOLD...Acquisition Target?

    by manyland Aug 22, 2014 11:02 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 22, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    No doubt, with their chaperone technology and their next generation enzymes, they are going to own the Fabry and Pompe treatment markets within five years - that equates to a multi-billion market cap by then, so the current share price is a bargain.

  • Reply to

    Anyone been following this stock since 2012?

    by toan_killerst Aug 21, 2014 1:48 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 21, 2014 6:28 AM Flag

    The initial results from the "011" study did not meet the pre-specified endpoint, which in retrospect was a flawed measurement. The original endpoint was whether the patient generated a 50% reduction in GL3 and an unusually high percentage of the placebo patients achieved this, because many of them had baseline GL3 readings of 0.3 and below, while the test can produce measurement noise of 0.1, so a patient with a baseline reading of 0.2 and post-treatment reading of 0.1 counted as a "responder", the same as a patient who went from 0.6 to 0.2. They addressed the measurement noise in the second stage of the "011" trial and the results were overwhelmingly positive, just as yesterday's results in the "012" study. The proof in the pudding is the fact that over 90% of the patients who have access to migalistat through these trials elect to stay on the drug into the long-term extension phases of the studies. The drug works - there is no issue regarding that. The question is what the market opportunity is and when it will be approved in the US.

  • Reply to

    what should not be overlooked

    by e11ndofwar Aug 14, 2014 3:44 PM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 11:25 PM Flag

    endo - nobody on this board is arguing against the obvious clinical benefit that the various Spy equipment provides - there is no doubt in my mind that over the next 10 years, Spy will become SOC in numerous indications. The issue is how long it takes to get there - having a clinical study that demonstrates irrefutable clinical benefit is not enough - if it was, they would already have captured the markets in colectomy and breast reconstruction. Clinical studies are fine, but you need to get equipment placed and doctors trained and Arun isn't moving aggressively enough to make that happen - if he was, we wouldn't be wringing our hands over whether Q3 revenue growth is going to be 30% or 40%.

    I was naive enough when I first invested in this company 5+ years ago that they could operate with the "field of dreams" strategy - build it and they will come. I thought the technology was so compelling that getting a few pieces of equipment into the leading hospitals and having the "thought leaders" talk it up a bit was all you needed for the rest of the medical system to beat a path to your door. That is obviously not the case and the breadth of indications available to be handled by Spy requires a huge marketing organization to make SOC happen - if you believe Arun can build it from the ground up, you are kidding yourself.

  • Reply to

    30 Days

    by wrmill Aug 14, 2014 4:06 PM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    grey - agree with every point you made, although I never suggested they pursue the remaining part of the Ebola trials - unless, of course, the DoD resurrects their contract and pays them to do so, which seems unlikely.

  • Reply to

    Institutional activity

    by e11ndofwar Aug 14, 2014 8:16 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    BTW - I was looking back at the year-end press release (just 6 moths ago) and one of the "key accomplishments" for 2013 was the "appointment of a highly capable network of distributors in the Asian markets". Whatever the heck that means, it certainly hasn't gone anywhere the last six months and is just another example of Arun throwing around nuggets of opportunities or accomplishments that are meaningless. You give him too much credit.

  • Reply to

    Institutional activity

    by e11ndofwar Aug 14, 2014 8:16 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    I would take $20+ today - unless Arun makes some serious changes to get revenue growing, I don't think we will see that number for another 3+ years.

  • tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    hwsimp - even if your scenario plays out (Ebola gets out of hand and govt contracts to build a stockpile), which I think has as much chance as winning the lottery, there is no guarantee the contract would go to SRPT and the "stockpile" would be limited and a one-time event. Just like in Africa, the emergency money should and would go toward containment - controlling the spread is the only way to defeat it - treating victims is secondary. Worst-case nightmare is dozens of westerners become infected - are they going to stockpile 100,000 doses under that scenario - no way.

  • Reply to

    Just ate some waffles and pancakes.

    by redlaw8 Aug 14, 2014 10:35 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    That's a more intelligent post than most of the postings regarding Ebola. BTW, why do people say "tuna fish" - is there another kind of tuna - you don't say "salmon fish" or "walley fish"? Just sayin'!

  • tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Whether DOD changes their mind or not is meaningless - by the time they shift gears on a DoD contract, you'll be two years down the road and this Ebola scare will be a distant memory. Show me the slide that says who is going to pay for the drug and at what price!

  • Reply to

    Institutional activity

    by e11ndofwar Aug 14, 2014 8:16 AM
    tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    endo - no doubt this stock became part of the biotech momentum stock universe, but with good reason - they were generating 40%+ revenue growth from their existing products and had two new products in Luna and Pinpoint that could potentially drive revenue growth into the 50%+ range. At $24, the stock was priced for perfection and I didn't think it would hold that level unless results were stellar, but with sales from LifeCell and ISRG floundering, we've been cut in half. With the fiscal year-end of the mutual funds looming in Oct, you could see further selling pressure, as funds with losing positions do some "window dressing", especially since Arun has already said Q3 results were going to be weak. This is just another reason I am praying for a sale of the company - although the primary reason still is that NVDQ is sitting on the some of the most compelling technology in the medical system space and they don't seem to have the leadership or resources to take full advantage of it.

  • tredleon tredleon Aug 14, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    avii - You fail to see the trees. There is no "world market" for an Ebola drug. SRPT is out of equation for providing a terrorist stockpile - their contract with the DoD is over and this latest outbreak is not going to change that. Any potential use of SRPT's drug is a dicey prospect, since they won't be able to control who gets it, how it is administered and what stage of disease the patient is in, so the patients could likely die. If some die and some live, there would be no way of knowing if the drug works - how would that "validate" the platform.

OMER
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