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Omeros Corporation (OMER) Message Board

tredleon 132 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2014 11:25 PM Member since: Sep 21, 1999
  • Reply to

    6 Month Price Target $48

    by alanmcd101 Jun 11, 2014 11:28 AM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 11, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Is that guess driven by how you think the launch of Omidria will go or something else in the pipeline?

  • Reply to

    CCO David Meeks let go without cause

    by donutsforbreakfast Jun 10, 2014 10:06 PM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 11, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    Idiot - his options have exercise prices of $8.73 and $9.86 - they are out of the money - no "stockholder money gone". Any other clueless observations to share?

  • Reply to

    One word for Shorts: Idenix (IDIX)

    by alanmcd101 Jun 9, 2014 10:55 AM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 9, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    20M shares of IDIX (30% of the float) was short - $280M of losses for the shorts in fell swoop - ouch!

  • Reply to

    Bichslap this PIG! Its time to SHORT

    by hold_still23 Jun 2, 2014 9:14 PM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 7, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    What "projections given before" - I don't recall the company giving any projections - only estimates of the potential market in terms of # of procedures. They have never given guidance or estimates on $ revenue potential, although several analysts have. Until they get CMS and other pricing resolved, how can they give projections?

  • tredleon tredleon Jun 5, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    No, I think they trust the CEO, who said yesterday that there will basically be no significant news until q1 of 2015 - they will have data by the end of the year from the MD trial, but any news release has to get approved by Pfizer, which can take some time. The short-term players are moving on.

  • Reply to

    How can the OMER board be so sleepy

    by green_bar_spike Jun 4, 2014 3:39 PM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 4, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    Omidria is not a "sexy" cancer or rare disease treatment that is going to generate big money quickly from a huge price per patient - this will likely be a slow, multi-year ramp-up to a couple hundred million of revenue annually. That is not enough of a story to grab institutional attention, but it will help fund their pipeline, which is where the real value in OMER is hiding out. Their PDE10 inhibitor (OMS824) is worth more than the current market cap alone, if the early clinical results bear out. The issue here is that nobody believes the pipeline has any value - until they do a major licensing/joint venture deal, nobody will believe in or even bother to look at the pipeline. Is the $60 WBB target reasonable - definitely, but it will most likely take more than a year to get to half that value - they have some early clinical data coming up later in the year on OMS824 and OMS721 - those might move the needle a little bit, but it will take an accompanying venture deal to get past $30/share.

  • Reply to

    CC yesterday?

    by wtrueba Jun 3, 2014 6:46 AM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 3, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    A lot of questions left unanswered - my sense is that they are delaying the launch until they get their CMS status confirmed, so that doctors are assured of a reimbursement for using Omidria. They bragged about all the marketing people being in place already and no issues with manufacturing, so why would they delay the launch until late summer? I can't blame them for not providing pricing info until they get CMS status confirmed.

  • tredleon tredleon Jun 2, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    He wants to be a "headline" presenter at a conference in Oct, which usually means they have to limit the information publicly disclosed beforehand. The headline data will be available over the next 30 days - my sense is that the data will be too good to hold back - we've already heard from a few of the parents speaking to "improvements" that their sons are showing in their latest tests.

  • Reply to

    What the $&%%&*

    by wtrueba Jun 2, 2014 10:05 AM
    tredleon tredleon Jun 2, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    The efficacy and safety results from the two clinical trials were so overwhelmingly positive that the only way Omidra was not going to get approved is if the company messed up with the filing or didn't have the manufacturing tied down. Having said that, I thought a 10%+ rise upon approval was in order as a de-risk on the filing/manufacturing issues. The sell-off today is most likely from the short-term traders that were looking for a larger pop and when it didn't materialize are now moving on to greener pastures. Some comments in the PR may have tempered any enthusiasm, as well - I thought they had guided that they were ready to market/ship Omidra almost immediately after approval (Wedbush was assuming Jul) and now they are saying "late summer/early fall". Also, they don't yet have Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement tied down, which is a big part of the revenue profile. Maybe today's call will provide some comfort around the launch and revenue potential, but this may be one of those "show me the money" stocks that doesn't move until the company proves the revenue potential is there?

  • Reply to

    RNA backers, and Srpt doubtor

    by thigrlsrk May 30, 2014 7:30 PM
    tredleon tredleon May 30, 2014 10:46 PM Flag

    If SRPT's issue is a lack of "n", RNA's issue is too much "n" - i.e. too many patients with injection reactions and kidney problems and more than enough "n" to produce a statistically significant efficacy result if it was there. That is what seems to be lost on most bashers - you could dismiss an n of 12 if only half of the boys were stabilized, but when 10 out of 10 ambulatory boys are stable after 2 years and 12 of 12 show stable/improving pulmonary function, it is clueless to talk about statistical significance.

  • tredleon tredleon May 27, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    I love it when people lay out their stupidity point-by-point - all five your points are so far off base from reality they don't even warrant a reply. Why do you feel the urge to expose how clueless you are in this fashion?

  • Reply to

    NDA filing could be done around the 144 week data

    by usagary1 May 21, 2014 7:53 AM
    tredleon tredleon May 22, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Here we go again - the company puts out a timeline for filing and potential approval and people feel the need to fantasize on how that could be accelerated. There were several specific reasons why the filing was targeted toward year-end, including the very important requirement that the confirmatory trials be started and enrolling prior to the filing, but all those reasons get pushed to the side in order to masturbate over the idea that the filing could take place months sooner. I don't get it - do you really think that a filing in Sep would impact the value of the company dramatically vs a filing in Dec, or is this just the case of people sitting on options that expire before Q4 clinging to some hope for a bump before then?

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