I was holding this short in October 2014. 1 guy brings ebola into the US... and you know the story. I had 5% of my portfolio short TVIX right before the Volatility spike andgot caught up in that. TVIX doubled and I suspected it could double again so I spent 1% of my portfolio to buy out of the money call options in UVXY as insurance, just in case someone on the plane (that the nurse was on) got sick. I held the short the whole time, my 21 days of insurance expired worthless, but it all worked out well for me. Now I only add to my short position after a the volatility spike has occured. Once it settles down I cover that position and hold my core position short (which is 2.5% of my portfolio). My core position just continues to erode away. Contango is Beautiful.
As long as it is currently 2.5% of your portfolio or less, I would never cover. Any more than that, and you might not be able to ride out the spikes and add more at that time. This turd can double in the blink of an eye it seems. But right now it if the VIX stays low, it will lose about 10% monthly. Enjoy the ride
I have the site bookmarked, along with a site showing the VIX futures contracts. I have been posting about the number of shares outstanding since the last week in Feb. I chack the site every day. How could I have stolen this? If someone else posted it, I applaud them for posting good information.
I make no prediction of market movements, but I am short TVIX. I always been clear that I am short and disclosed when I short and cover. I don't understand why rickwest and (I can't remember the other guy's name) deleted our conversations. It would have been informative for anyone short or long. After all information sharing is why we are all here.
TVIX certainly could go up in March or April, however the small increases in the VIX that we have had during the (very small) market sell off recently, aren't enough to get the futures to move up. If you start to get some real fear in the market and the VIX starts climing above 15 or so, Then I think you will see a move in TVIX as the futures of the VIX would start to move higher too. I can't time anything, so I just hold short, and wait for Volatility spikes to add more to my short position or sell calls spreads on UVXY. I actually covered a little around $2.1, since during the last vol spike, I added more short positions at $3, $3.3, and $3.5 and my position got too large for comfort.
I have always been short, I have never tried to hide that. Being short this is like being the house of a casino, I might lose some big jackpots, but in the end the house always wins. I have the patience and the capital to ride out the ferocious swings. I try to present facts to people on this board, I do not try to influence the price of this ETN, since that would be futile. My only hope is when people lose money being long this, that they know why they lost money. Good luck sir.
Mid feb there were only 126 million shares outstanding. Around the 20th they started issuing shares 10 - 20 million at a time, Now we are up to 220 million. You have to check it daily to see the difference in share count and NAV. I don't know of any sites that actually announce the issuance.
TVIX can go up, if the VIX rises since the futures will eventually follow the Cash price. Most important take away from looking at the futures prices, is understanding why TVIX will continue to fall even though the VIX goes up a little here and there. me_and_my_dog_named_boo gave a good example of where to look at the futures prices. Good luck Alex