That is difficult for me to give you an accurate estimate on, since some flat gains, with large dollar values associated with them, distort it (at the time it was tax lot planning). However If I divide realized gains with my portfolio starting amount in May 2014, it comes out to about 9%. Which isn't bad, since I only carry about 2% of my portfolio short and add on spikes.
I was right here. I added to my short position at 7.7, 9, 15.62, 14, 17.5, and 14 during the spike and covered portions at various times with my last cover at $5.84. Made out like a bandit. And you?
Dollar is weaker, Oil is up, and bond yields are lower. All three of these are good for the stock market right now.
Oh pleeeeeeeease.... This MIGHT get up to yesterdays highs. It is really sad when you need a plane shot down in order to get yourself out of a bad trade.
I don't believe I am qualified to give an opinion but I will tell you what I know. DWTI gets an advantage from contango. The reason the price is now lower is because of very large 1 day drops in DWTI. There were several in a row between August 26th - 27th (29% drop), 27-28th (19% drop) 28-29 th (23% drop). These large drops would require an increase of 41%, 23%, and 30% daily to counteract the price erosion. So in my opinion if there are going to be many wild swings it seems it is better to short DWTI. If it going to be a steady slow orderly rise, then it would be better to own UWTI.
This same thought process is the same with Shorting TVIX vs owning XIV (other than the leverage involved). TVIX always drops back to a new all time low, while XIV takes forever to get to a new all time high. It is the one day drops that eat away (at both XIV and TVIX) however changes in volatility are always higher up than down, so XIV gets cut down to pieces quickly. Good luck
I love how someone believes that a short, who has made 80-90% per year, all of a sudden gets a margin call when this moves up 6%. I have held short this instrument when it has gone up nearly 400% from trough to peak. I have never had a margin call. It's all about money management.
In my observation, whenever this yahoo starts posting, TVIX is about ready to lose 20-30% in the next couple weeks.
According to his posts he is all in. When this breaks $6, I'm guessing we finallytherenow won't here from this guy again. Some day we should do a tribute to all of the fallen longs... kind of like in the Hunger Games.
finallytherenow • 2 hours 32 minutes ago Flag
All In again here @ $6.68-70
Fully locked and loaded !!!!!!!!!!