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Avalon Holdings Corp. Message Board

tresfind 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 13, 2014 9:24 PM Member since: Dec 10, 1998
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  • tresfind by tresfind Aug 13, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    I thought Ran did an excellent job explaining in detail just what this co. does, how they go about it, the returns they get, initiation fees, who their customers are, what backs the loans, time frames of loans, personal guarantees from principles, the fact they have never had a default since starting this in 07, and reiterating that in setting the .28 dividend that they seriously considered all the possible factors and reafirmed his confidence in the cos. ability to maintain and grow it. At the current price of the stock it is an 11.81% yield. At that rate you double your money in 6 yrs. just from the div. Stock could go back to $4 and still yld. 7% so definately room for price appreciation here also. Markets don't always efficiently price stocks and I think this is a good example.

  • tresfind by tresfind Aug 12, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Weds., Aug. 13th at 4:30 ET. -- 877 407 9039 (toll free). Glad to see we are starting to have conference calls. I see a lot of confusion in remarks on this board regarding this co.

  • tresfind tresfind Jul 7, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    No problem at Ameritrade. I believe it is up to each firm to set their rules. They are all different.

  • Reply to

    $4 high today

    by smaycs4 Jul 2, 2014 3:53 PM
    tresfind tresfind Jul 3, 2014 1:51 AM Flag

    Just a reminder. CEO pledged personal assets to get loans from Sterling Bank to begin this journey and deserved some compensation for that . He has continued to accumulate stock, buying in the open market, and puts his money where his mouth is. I only wish my other cos. had that kind of mgmt.

  • If you bought this co. at current price and stripped out the cash you;d be buying a $31mil. rev. stream that could be running at near breakeven or slight profit just getting rid of current mgmt. salaries. (takeover) I don't think these guys are worth their salt as in spite of increasing revs. from 23 to 31 mil. the last couple yrs. they have eaten through about $9 mil. in cash taking cash from 15 to $6.1 mil. I therefore would like to see the 20% holder succeed in his efforts to replace the entire board and mgmt. in an attempt to return us to profitability.

  • Reply to

    Trouble ahead for Cobra

    by traderx01 Jun 23, 2014 7:31 PM
    tresfind tresfind Jun 27, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha article on RSH - every coin has 2 sides - interesting: RadioShack +9.1%; SA author sees a contrarian play • 10:39 AM

    "RadioShack (RSH) is really not the unmitigated disaster that the overwhelming majority are making it out to be," declares SA author Charles Moscoe, making a bull case for the hard-luck electronics retailer. Management has said RadioShack has enough cash for 12 months, and the company is aggressively slashing costs in the interim.
    Moscoe is also pleased with recent insider buying, and notes other struggling retailers such as Rite Aid, Best Buy, and SuperValu have risen sharply from their lows.
    Though he admits the risk of bankruptcy is "material," Moscoe considers the risk/reward favorable in light of RadioShack's potential upside. He also thinks equity holders might not be completely wiped out should a bankruptcy happen.

  • Reply to

    Trouble ahead for Cobra

    by traderx01 Jun 23, 2014 7:31 PM
    tresfind tresfind Jun 23, 2014 10:31 PM Flag

    I am sure COBR mgmt. is aware of RSH troubles and is setting terms accordingly but it would be the loss of a large customer. I don't see it as major trouble.

  • Reply to

    Maybe I underestimated the underwriter ?

    by smaycs4 Jun 10, 2014 3:20 PM
    tresfind tresfind Jun 10, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    Depending on the price the secondary gets done at this co. could easily be earning in the high thirty cent per shr. area with the additional capital they raise just based on their past returns so for you to doubt their ability to pay the .28 div. is shortsighted and naive IMO. Get out your calculator and run some numbers (if you have the knowhow). Mr. Ran is not going to declare a dividend he thinks he will have to cut. LOAN is just starting to find it's legs after a long period of proving itself in this business. This tree is just starting to bear fruit.

  • Reply to

    Seems to me the underwriter has a big incentive

    by smaycs4 Jun 6, 2014 5:31 PM
    tresfind tresfind Jun 9, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Well, back in the 70's 80's era when I was a broker for a leading firm, the way it worked was cos. established in investment banking relation with a firm in anticipation of doing a secondary. If the stock price was deemed too low the investment banking firm would have an analyst put out a buy recommendation on the stock to get the stock up to what was considered a fair price for the client and the investors prior to doing the offering. It was common for the stock to drop back a little on the announcement ot the offering and then resume normal price action after the offering was completed. I think this stock is worth $3 at absolute minimum and feel certain Ran would NOT do it at less than book, worst case scenario. The biggest problem with LOAN is that it has no following, thus the low volume. If this investment banking firm is worth their salt they will take this thing to $3 or more prior to doing the secondary. The secondary should also help in possibly broadening the interest here. At any rate, without a major catastrophe, downside here should be nil. with 200 to 300% possible return over the next 6mos. to a yr. Hopefully Ran, will be smart enough and the investment banking firm reputable enough to get this deal done at a fair price to all.

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