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Nutrastar International Inc. Message Board

trf456 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 8, 2016 4:27 PM Member since: Oct 14, 1998
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  • Reply to

    DRAD

    by efax_away Jan 31, 2016 9:50 PM
    trf456 trf456 Mar 8, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    Simple.....the company made an acquistion at 3.5x that will double revenues. Mgt expects EBITDA to go from $7M to $18M post aquisition. When you do the math you get 5.5x and quickly paying down a bit of debt through free cash flow. Congrats on AIQ, I hope you make a killing. DRAD starts reporting rev and EBITDA doubling starting at end of Q1.

  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by trf456 Mar 2, 2016 1:49 PM
    trf456 trf456 Mar 4, 2016 7:57 PM Flag

    Neither short nor long....but I enjoying bantering with a moron on here...

    The future....? how do you know what it is ? Crossing your finger and hoping I guess ?

  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by trf456 Mar 2, 2016 1:49 PM
    trf456 trf456 Mar 4, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    1998 is relevant.....the stock was at $11 back then and the company had one of the better years in history. Since then, 18 years later, revenues have only increased 33% whille operating income is lower now than it was back then.

    It may be a changed business model. but it's not making a big difference compared to the past.

    What relevant to you ? just today ?

  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by trf456 Mar 2, 2016 1:49 PM
    trf456 trf456 Mar 3, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    Go figure ..... investors here are against a company communicating with investors ? What next ? Maybe you don't want quarterly press releases ? I guess they don't want analyst coverage or institutional investors or some clarity. ?

    If you go back to 1998 and look at this company's financials, revenues and income show no consistency. Good years are followed by bad and vice versa repeatedly. As a matter of fact, look at the 10k for this company in 1998, revenues were $68 million and operating income was $9.6 million so operating margin was 14%. Cash was $5 million back then. Trailing twelve months revenues ending 12/31/2015 were $90.7 million and operating income was $6.6M. So In 17 years the company increased revenues by 33% and operating income went down $3 million. Go look it up yourself !

    When things go bad investors find out from the press release and then it's almost too late.

    They don't have a conf call since the company has key shareholders who are long time holders and eventually their exit plan is a sale of the company.

    The little guy just looks at the press release and crosses his fingers and hopes that the next quarter is good.

    That's no way to invest but often investors want to stick their head in the sand when someone spells out the facts that they naively don't want to hear.

  • It's not good for management not to have a quarterly conference call for analyts to ask questions. Without management guidance the future quarter and the year is a pig in a poke !

    I know management owns a lot of this company, but it's tough to buy a stock based upon OLD news.

    It;s looks cheap on a LTM basis, but the vacuum on contact with management create enough discomfort to sell on rallies.

  • trf456 trf456 Mar 2, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    Good question.... but tell me ...how comfortable do you feel with a management who can't file a 10Q on time and then spew tons of excuses. And during this, they complete a corporate action that investors can't understand the logic ?

    I've seen dumber managements than this before in my life .... ( or are they ? )

  • Reply to

    DRAD

    by efax_away Jan 31, 2016 9:50 PM
    trf456 trf456 Feb 29, 2016 6:36 PM Flag

    Efax....just noticed your comment..... DRAD EV/EBITDA for 2015 as reported last week is 11.5x. Proforma for the completed acquisiton on 1/1/16 EBITDA / EV done through cash on hand and debt is 6.3x with enough free cash flow to pay off the acquisition debt in 3 years. Just thought I'd let you know. With no debt, EV/EBITDA becomes about 5.5x and lower as cash builds. Sorry for posting on this board.... I just wanted to clarify your comment.

  • Reply to

    last warning

    by pappytom64152 Feb 11, 2016 3:46 PM
    trf456 trf456 Feb 12, 2016 6:26 PM Flag

    Yeah yeah yeah....Jimmy....keep barking up that VIE tree..... but mgt, operations and the cash is in China...

    Good luck .....when they go dark and your stuck in limbo you'll get a quick lesson as to what you THOUGHT vs what really IS.....

  • Reply to

    last warning

    by pappytom64152 Feb 11, 2016 3:46 PM
    trf456 trf456 Feb 12, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    Name even ONE Chinese company that filed Chapter 11.

  • trf456 trf456 Feb 10, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    Jimmy, been investing in Chinese stocks in the USA since you were in diapers. VIE or not, when this company goes dark, it won't matter. It's the next step.

  • Reply to

    Going back in time

    by trf456 Feb 9, 2016 11:48 AM
    trf456 trf456 Feb 9, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    Based upon 14% growth in Revenues and similar EBITDA margins and $3M in cap ex, the company should generate about $8 million in free cash flow this coming year. That means the cash balance should end in 2016 at about $38 million or $.86 per share.

  • I recall how the stock sank the two days after the company announced the completion of their secondary offering last year. It was almost panic selling.

    This appears to be a repeat. The numbers were fine and the outlook is very good.

    The company spent cash on the acquisition this last quarter, the next quarter the company will generates lots of free cash.

  • Reply to

    Stay strong

    by adrianthefrog Feb 1, 2016 12:10 PM
    trf456 trf456 Feb 1, 2016 9:20 PM Flag

    Are you commenting on the wrong stock ??

  • trf456 by trf456 Jan 29, 2016 8:36 PM Flag

    The results were terrible as expected and Q4 was horrendous. The press release said nothing ......and considering no press release.... it was useless. You would think the new CFO with a signing bonus would fix this mess. I expect the dividend to be cut and the stock to drift lower as debt continues to increase.

    What a mess !!!! $5 coming soon !

  • Reply to

    someone knows something

    by wirelessexcess Nov 6, 2015 4:14 PM
    trf456 trf456 Jan 29, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    The stock would be worth about 2x book in an acquisition. That comes out to about $10.50.

    With the preferreds gone it would be nice to see a token dividend.

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