"Either way my EPS estimate for Q4 is .38-.42 cents" is what mathmagic1 said 6 hours ago.
Corvus Business early today said "Analysts expect Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to post earnings of $0.78 per share for the quarter."
On Google finance the latest news link by Corvus says "Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:ARLP) is scheduled to be posting its quarterly earnings results before the market opens on Tuesday, January 26th. Analysts expect Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to post earnings of $0.78 per share for the quarter." ie about twice you guess
Soon the entire world will be all solar. All power plants, Freight trains and Cement trucks and airplanes will be solar and all coal, natural gas and fuel oil usage will be zero.
Jan 18th 2016 Zacks survey of analysts predicts 0.63 EPS for the quarter to be announced JAN 26,2016 Last quarters number was 0.61 actual on Tuesday, October 27th. To have a 40 percent cut would imply that the next results would be way off say 0.3 to 0.4 EPS
Future sales prices of coal contracted to power plants are the unknown bogey. Thus the fickle market is scared of the more murky cash flows and profits tanking and thus the stock has fearful sellers. "Math" guy on his forum has more radical stance that the profit faucet is closing. A stock's worth is hard to figure and often questionable when the future cash flows and profits are more of an unknown. In the short term the "sky is falling" herd will sell off their stocks. The "sell for moral/climate" groups I would hope have finally sold off their blocks of stock but who really knows. Natural Gas being cheap in price does limit coals prices. A power plant may not want to have any long term contracts when prices are falling.
US Plants burn Coal or Natural gas, a few in Canada, Japan etc burn some fuel oil. The pickle is many US plants are dual fuel and Natural gas has dropped lower than coal in many areas. This reversal happened between say 2008 and 2012, and depends on the region. Once Natural gas was super expensive to use to make power and coal was radically cheaper. The Drop In Natural gas prices means a dual fuel plant can save money by using more Natural gas and less coal. In the Midwest Natural gas usage in power plants has gone from 0.5 to 1 Billion cubic feet per day from 2009 to 2012 at 50F. At 80F the usage was gone from 1.2 to 3.
One year ago it bottomed slightly below 10 and thus many of us felt this was "finally a bottom".
Last September it went below 6 many of us felt this was "finally a bottom"
Then in early Dec it went below 4 and many of us felt this was "finally a bottom"
Yesterday it went below 3 and many of us felt this was "finally a bottom".
Old Schwab finally rates SDRL as a buy after many of us have sold with losses.
I have one stock in my IRA that is worth zero and I leave it there as a reminder of duds, failed turnarounds.
Who knows. The Saudi's might pump more oil and more oil and drop prices even more.
He said in two years thus he has until Sept 30 2016 to see where the stock is
Maybe year end tax selling? ie most ARLP is probably held in taxable accounts and not IRA's thus maybe some folks still want out in 2015 as a tax loss?