I think the market has over reacted. We will never find out what VISA's motives are for releasing. Full disclosure, I am a long term holder of the stock.
1. Monitise will be getting revenues from their technical expertise (current model) and e commerce (buy anything) model. The former will be 15% or less and that is where VISA, VISA Europe will fall in by 2018. Since Monitise is now agnostic it really doesn't matter whether one uses VISA or MC, it doesn't matter whether it's Apple, BBY, or Android. The bottom line is they won't directly influence customer registrations, they will only help if they can convince their bank issuing institutions to deal with Monitise. At this stage after 5 yrs with VISA and E. Buse with her connections I doubt it's a big deal.
2. IBM and Monitise I don't think is a good fit. I'm not sure IBM knows what to do with the e commerce part of the business model unless they can divest it. I think the best fit is with a social media co. like FB, TWTR with registered users and a commercial bent. 1 billion users offering them targeted coupons and ads and deals. A dark horse is a Telco with millions , millions of users but 0 commerce/ banking capabilities.
So unlike the naysayers I think Monitise moves on.
This is not that far fetched. Don't forget E. Buse was the other contender for CEO (against the current CEO). I think most are a little surprised they would even publicly announce something like this which for a large co. Is nothing. You would normally see it as a footnote on a quarterly report! I disagree with the naysayers that Monitise doesn't contribute anything. If the e commerce model is successful this can be very profitable, that's why I think a link up with someone like FB is ideal. Instantly, 1 billion potential registered users. People worry about VISA but Monitise is on the other side of the cloud. VISA has no direct consumers, the banks own them!
Is this possible? The Foster City release does not say VISA is selling. It says they have asked JP Morgan to assess their investment. What happens if JPM comes back and says you guys should buy them out and bring it in house. Wouldn't that fulfill what MR. Sheedy is saying? Then the offer comes in at even 3x current price and everyone's jumping for joy. Buys them on the cheap, bests starting a new team. Naah ...probably too far fetched. By the way is Foster City where Monitise USA is or VISA.?
I don't see IBM buying them out since Monitise has really morphed into an e commerce business (buy anything) rather than an infrastructure company. I don't think IBM would be interested in dealing with retailers, etc- that maybe why VISA decided to part ways. They don't really contribute directly to the sign up of registered users since they don't "own" them, the banks do. The way they help Monitise is by fostering a relationship between Monitise and the issuing banks. Since Monitise has already established such a wide network I don't think their leaving after 2016 will affect revenues a whole lot. A better fit maybe someone like Facebook, Groupon, Twitter?
When most of us invested in the co. It was pretty simple to understand. They had the infrastructure for mobile payments. Whenever somebody came on board Monitise collected fees. Ever since they changed to a subscription model it's been impossible to figure out where revenues will be coming from. If technology revenues will only play a minor part (May explain a lack of excitement with yesterday's Apple announcement) vs commerce revenues then even VISA using their token system may not generate significant revenues for them. I've been trying to figure out how all these alliances translate into "subscribers" who then generate ARPUs of about 4-5$. The banking relationship is straightforward but what about VISA, VISA Europe, Telefonica? No one on any of the message boards or blogs including Kass, BTIG have bothered to explain. I can't get anything else out of IR so if anyone has any ideas I would love to hear.
I am not able to print the link but there is a press release from Monitise dated February 25, 2013 at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. The second half o f the release details all the Monitise innovations being incorporated by VISA. Reading that t here is little doubt Monitise has to be involved. Also when I queried Andrew Griffin in IR months ago he gave the standard can't give specifics but did say (paraphrasing) - anything with VISA mobile payments you can count on Monitise being involved.
VISA is launching token service, announced 30 min ago. Monitise most likely involved. As usual they are not inthe headlines.
It will come down to whether Apple wants to handle tokenization or if the banks win out and insist VISA does it in which case Monitiise will have to be involved.
I agree. It would be interesting to see if Cooperman is still in the stock. Kass did not sell out . I think Monitise is not going to have a direct relationship with Apple. I think their involvement will be through VISA, MC, except I don't get how they are going to derive revenue from it since IR told me they will not take a bite out of the interchange fee.
I suspect they won't get mentioned since they work more "below " ground as an enabler. Question is how will they derive their revenues from their affiliations.
Recent data suggest minimal covering. I wonder what Kass was referring to in his article ie the majority of buying was from short covering. There must be at least 160-180 million shares still shorted.
This is basically an IBM VISA company, too much firepower not to make it big. Maybe they are changing the Board composition to reflect upcoming alliances. Will be interesting to see who gets appointed, somebody from IBM?, Apple? , MC?. Wondering if American Express is someone they are negotiating with?
Short term I think the price will equilibrate lower unless September 15 report shows better #s than expected. I am still waiting for 1 near term announcement of a deal with a large new partner as mentioned in the update. This excludes VISA, VISA Europe or MC. Also they have not announced any specifics of their working agreements with MC the extent of which can be a catalyst. Likewise, if VISA and Apple link up that's a big positive. Finally, who knows a takeover can happen any day (speculative)
I hope no one sells for the reason of just breaking even. I guess that's technical resistance. This can potentially get "huge". Not Apple or Google huge but more than 3-4 billion dollars. Square which only does a small part of what Monitise does is reportedly worth 6 billion! Other social media sites bought by Facebook, Amazon are quoted higher. Here we have something that consumers are using multiple times a week worth less than 2.0 billion! IBM can always pay a higher price and do a carve out with VISA. I think something closer to 5-7 billion is more reasonable. Comments?
This is a big announcement. Cements a deeper relationship with IBM. They now have 3 long term partnerships that give them real and undeniable credibility in the space, VISA, VISA Europe, and IBM not to mention the banks. When I inquired about their role in VISA Checkout, Mr. Griffin had responded that although he cannot give specifics but one can bet Monitise is involved in anything mobile VISA is working on. All of these pretty much rules out Monitise "failing", at worst they get bought at a price less than we would like. Despite all of the above, there has to be one more big announcement coming. The CEO during the last update had mentioned ongoing negotiations with a partner they had not worked with before, ?? Apple?.