Released tonight is a fairly negative review about Monitise, questioning subscriber and ARPU targets. Wasn't it not too long ago that he had done "due diligence" and was reassured? He now says research for the last few weeks his contacts say otherwise! On the other hand he 's been wrong about shorting treasuries,S&p , Apple, Facebook and others. Does anybody know how much his fund actually manages?
I agree it is puzzling. Makes you wonder why they pre announced something they are going to 2 years ahead, hurt their investment and then not get rid of it when offered a buy. Maybe as some suggested on the board they are doing it to spite Monitise for poaching their executives!
On Apple pay: http://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/articles/apple-pay-a-short-term-wallet-plan-for-500-banks/. Interesting thoughts by the consultant they interviewed. Isn't that what Monitise is trying to convince banks to do?
Well that maybe true but I'll bet Kass, Cooperman, and Miller have better information than all of us combined. The amounts at risk maybe a smaller % but they are successful investors after all. When they call to inquire about an issue I'll bet they talk to Ms. Buse or Mr . Lukies. Unless Kass is dishonest (which I doubt) his "announced" buying is definitely a big positive.
Listen from about 551 on the interviewee is suggesting Twitter has to buy into this business because people are so adverse to advertising. I think a compelling argument (my bias). Did not realize the pay anyone part has such large potential Monitise should definitely take advantage.
Thanks. Finally able to listen to the replay. Very positive for mobile banking. There is a lot of potential for Monitise here if they execute. Their present valuation is within 10% of XOOM which does a minuscule portion of what Monitise does BUT they are making a profit. So if they ever make a profit the valuation will skyrocket. I don't think the stock price has anything to do with director's pay, basically investors are pricing them as a "startup" because of the new business plan. People who entered early are locking in profits until their is a clearer view that they will succeed. With Twitters move today I think a partnership with social media will instantly draw in the banks and allow Monitise to piggyback onto their existing app if they have one.
Can you summarize what they said about interest in Monitise? Can't get the AV file to work. Thanks
Finally had time to read it this weekend. Well worth it if you haven't done so. The revenue numbers for the Americas look pretty anemic, half full view would be that there is a lot of room to grow. Also, I expect "rest of the world " numbers to be significantly higher with their recent announcements. FWIW NY Post wrote last nite Cooperman still likes Monitise and has not sold any. Of course the author doesn't get that Apple is not the reason for the decrease in stock price.
I just tried out my friend's B of A mobile app, and they actually do have a commerce channel. It's pretty interesting but not friendly to use., I can see where consumers would gravitate towards it though especially with special offers like discounts and coupons. Hopefully the Monitise offering is better. And more appealing to use. Obviously this is a B of A in house product but as far as I can tell Wells, Chase and Citi do not have one. If anyone knows otherwise please post. If Monitise can sign one of them it would be huge. The concept may not be as far fetched as I thought I can see where Marcko and the coupon strategy fits in now. Given that the ARPU of £2.50 is a pretty low bar to meet they should be able to beat it especially since their current ARPU is already 1.50. Subscriber fees alone should get them to 2.00 but of course this is predicated on them getting their subscriber #s to 200 million. I hope everyone stays patient, this will take awhile to work out but I am becoming more positive about the new model.
Basically investors are re pricing the "new monitise". It's being treated as a startup without a proven business model. They now admit that building the rails is not going to make enough money and commerce thru the bank channel is the way to go. That's a big unknown. A lot of us who bought earlier missed how skeptical the market would be about this. If they succeed though it will be big. This isn't about VISA leaving, Apple not including them this is about whether you think bank customers will do commerce thru the banking channel. To me, there's no reason why people wouldn't if they get a good deal just not used to it. If they can sign any of the big 4 US banks to their buy anything platform (not bank or pay since that's all in house) that would be a game changer. As far as I know none of the big 4 have any commercial offerings now do they?
Monitise really should be viewed as a mid stage start up. The switch to a different platform is unproven and that's why a lot of investors are bailing. While their bank anywhere, pay anyone technological innovations are lauded and are used by many trying to convert banks into a channel of commerce is a tall order. It would be revolutionary if successful. I mistakenly thought that when Al Lukies kept spouting: 10% of a small # is better blah blah" I thought he was referring to a tiny cut of the interchange fee especially with their close association with VISA. The challenge now is to get banks to sign up, then convince their customers to subscribe to Monitise offerings to reach 200 million, convince retailers to participate and offer deals in the banking channel and finally convince subscribers to purchase. Would consumers buy a TV through an offering in their bank app or a vacation package? I guess if Walmart can go into banking banks can sell clothes?! Still long but understanding this will take a while to play out.
Thanks for posting. First time I've seen FB mentioned in the same ecospace with a Monitise product. I think FB would be a great fit. Instant 1 billion potential users and allows FB to monetize their users. Targeted coupons, gift cards, a readily available banking relationship. If they paid 20 billion for a 0 revenue co. Monetise is worth at least that! Any thoughts? I just don't think IBM is interested in the ecommerce part.
Trying to figure if monitise can get to 200 million in 3.5 years: currently 30 million registered with another 30 million using but not registered, Santander with 100 million customers, IBM, Indonesia with 150 million users, 350 banks . Not including VISA and MC WHO HAVE 4.5 billion card holders to avoid overlap.
30+ 15 of users converted to registered over 3 yrs+ 25 million Santander+25 mil Indonesia+ 30 mil IBM business+ 50 from 350 banks+15 YAPP, + 10 mil another Telco. Not far fetched at all. Anyone interested in manipulating and changing #s welcome to. This would be a no brainier if Facebook comes on board! This doesn't include Turkry, Africa, Middle East.