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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

trubulator12345 5 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2014 10:05 AM Member since: Jul 12, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Not Sure

    by yankel222 May 21, 2014 9:58 AM
    trubulator12345 trubulator12345 May 22, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    I have not fully dissected the beat. Perhaps there is some juice from insurance wind-up in there. It is a small enough amount of money that it does not move the needle for me. Navios Asia was an opportunistic thing and they got 3 ships at low prices out of it. Good enough for me. I suspect we will not hear another word about it.

    NSALI was pretty clear. First, they made less money on refined product sales, which are opportunistic and volatile. Second, the grain season was lighter in Q1 by the sounds of the conference call commentary. Since this appears to represent a delay rather than a loss of business, it should juice future quarters. The NSALI story appears to be intact.

    I think there is an elephant in the room, though. A lot of things are predicated on a significant rate spike real soon. Will this materialize? Mysteries abound...

  • trubulator12345 trubulator12345 May 2, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    My guess is that the banks would be fine to change the covenant to 15% or even 10%, especially if the dilution of Ms. Frangou's stake were accompanied by a big equity raise that delivered the balance sheet. As a result, I am inclined to agree with you that this is very bullish. Glad I closed out the covered calls I sold when the stock was recently around 10. Now I wonder if I should be following Ms. Frangou's lead.

  • trubulator12345 trubulator12345 May 1, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    Ok, 4 million and change. This is still significant in my mind. Ms. Frangou has not bought shares in years. All of a sudden she starts gorging on shares in the open market with her own cash. She now owns almost 27% of NM. Is the recent purchase a good thing or a bad thing? It might signal that she thinks NM is grossly undervalued. It might also signal that NM is going to do a large equity offering and she wants to get out ahead of it by buying shares to ensure that she still owns a least 20% as required by the company's bank loans. I think the latter is pretty unlikely, but it has to be considered to be within the realm of possibility, I suppose.

  • That is how I read the latest filing.

  • Reply to

    Citigroup initiates coverage

    by el1genio Apr 28, 2014 11:13 PM
    trubulator12345 trubulator12345 Apr 29, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    It is a mystery to me why the company has not had its name changed to something like Navios Maritime Tanker Co. This has not been a SPAC for many moons.

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