#24412-STATOIL OIL & GAS LP, GARMANN 19-18 3H, SESE 19
-153N-97W, MCKENZIE CO., 3823 BOPD, 4612 BWPD-BAKKEN
Based on higher oil pricing so far, and huge production increase in Banks in the month of January (358,000+) , I'm going to tell you what I'm guessing for earnings this quarter. 1st, since we only have
one month of production in Banks to go on, I'm going to use an average of 300,000 per month for the quarter.
I'm going to lower gas price by $1.00. I'm going to use $92 netback for oil pricing for the quarter.
I'm not going to count any upside for the 5 wells to be drilled in S. Texas this quarter, as I don't know when they will come on line.
I'm coming up with about 62 cents/share on these conservative assumptions. If we get Feb. production in
banks way above 300,000, I think that speaks for itself. If we get any added production in S. Texas
that will also boost this quite a bit.
So, there is my guess at this point in time. If correct, that means about $2.27 for trailing 4 quarters.
I don't understand why you think a stock dividend is so great? It does zippo to increase value,
and if there is more stock float, it may take some pop out of any upwards move. I'd rather have the low
float and more pop. Not a dampner on the pop.
Earthstone needs every bit of its cashflow to invest, and pay AFE's, so a cash dividend is also not
a good idea nor financially rewarding vs. ROI on that same cash invested in projects.
Don't get it. The only thing that makes sense for Earthstone right now is to invest all of its cash in drilling,
and to raise EPS, not shares. Focus on Net income, both revenues and from the GXA side.
And by the way, issuing more shares will just depress EPS and share price, and then all you have is
the hope that more shares keeps you equal in theory. The last thing Earthstone needs to do
as EPS rise, is to obfuscate that fact by diluting the EPS with more shares. That ruins the pattern
it is beginning to establish, and anaylists and the public then will have a harder time seeing the
growth that is starting to occur.
I believe you know how a I feel about obfuscation, and why........ If I need to tell you and spell it out, I can.
Nope, this is just physical oil production coming out of physical wells. It has nothing to do with
accruals for production or accounting. This is what the pumper measures and reports to the
state for monthly production on each well. Has nothing to do with when revenues actually get
realized from sales.
#24413-STATOIL OIL & GAS LP, BRODERSON 30-31 4TFH, SESE 19-153N-97W, MCKENZIE CO., 2513 BOPD, 4192 BWPD-BAKKEN
Hold on to your britches. See things really Big like Boolean Does. Only the Biggest Picture will do....
January preliminary production for Statoil's Bank's Field is 358, 133 BOE !!!!
That is up from a paltry 235,340 in December, and smashes the old record for monthly boe
of 281, 227 boe from last September. We had a few other months around 275,000 lately too.
But this is a rocket fuel month! We had a lot of shut in wells turned back on from last month,
and we had several wells which produced individually over 20,000 boe by themselves.
One was over 25,000 boe even.
Coupled with oil back to $104.00, this bodes very well for the next quarter's earnings.
#24414 -STATOIL OIL & GAS LP, GARMANN 19-18 4TFH, SESE 19-153N-97W, MCKENZIE CO., 2856 BOPD, 5152 BWPD -BAKKEN
Wow, lots of progress.
Wow, all the other comps have PE's 18-24. We are really zooming........
Take a look at the PE for Nog, Kog, Tplm, OAS
All of these are PE's between 18-24 ESTE languishes at 9-10.
We are due for a multiple expansion to go with more consistent earnings and increased earnings no??
Sounds good to me. Bring it on. But, I am not sure that the SEC defined method using FUTURE cash flows (Revenues and Expenses) factors in
investment, because it seems like it is focused on future cash flows for
proved reserves where the investment is already a sunk cost?
PV10 is the amount of value above and beyond the initial investment created
at the discount rate chosen, ie, 10% in this case.
I'd be interested to know in this calculation if you can add the investment to
the PV10 created?
Real, my guess is relative to the SEC PV10 Standardized measure, which was like $31,616,000
last year. I'm thinking with a total reserves bump to about 3.9-4 mmboe, from 2.9 mmboe
last year, a little stronger oil pricing in 2013, and the booking of some additional reserves
because of this year's drilling results which opens up more proved undeveloped and proved
possible , that we should get to something like $39-42 million SEC standardized measure pv10
Looks like they are drilling two injection wells and three producers now. All of these wells will I believe
be 100% to ESTE unless there is some working interest partners in North Cole Unit?
Does any one know for sure about that?
I think they said they will spud some of these this quarter? They are only 2450 feet deep, so they will drill
Do you think they will drill any more wells in Nebraska or is that on hold? They said they planned on drilling one in the 1st quarter, but have not heard much lately about it.
I'm looking for reserve additions to be annnounced in the next few months.
I'm thinking the new level will be at around 3.90-4.0 mmboe.
Any other guesses out there?
Annual earnings are now on track for delivering about $2-2.15 per share for this last year.
Looks like we are trading at about a 9.5 PE this morning, but growing much faster year over year.
I never saw anyone forecast 60-65 cents. I for example only forecast a high range of 46 cents.
Don't know what source you are citing for 60-65 cents? Please point me to it?
The real question is where did all that production come from last quarter?
The only explanation I can think of is that there were a lot more Zenergy, Newfield, Marathon, and other
wells in N. Dakota that were drilled and maybe under the radar?
Unless they have been producing oil from a PxA well in Nebraska, where else did it come from?
Was this again a little production kitty or accounting accrual?
The gas price for the 4th quarter was also pretty phenomenal. $9.83
I don't think they actually pxa Schmale well yet, so no write off on it in the last quarter maybe?
Looking forward to some explanation for physical production results for this 47,000 boe gusher.
I have said before, they need to sell holdings in Montana, to raise cash and reduce debt/fund all their
drilling in Banks, and their exploration program. As of yet, nothing to really show for exploration......
We'll see what they say in the earnings release, but it would be nice to get some idea of what the expected
oil production increase in North Cole Unit will be from 2 new injectors and 2 new producing wells there.
If it were as much as 50-100 bopd or more, that would mean a lot.
#23993 -STATOIL OIL & GAS LP, JOHNSTON 7-6 7H, SESE 7-152N-98W, MCKENZIE O., 3888 BOPD, 1850 BWPD –BAKKEN
Preliminary well by well Production for Statoil banks was out today. Not very good for Dec. Lots of work going on there and downtime on pads, but the effect takes only about 2 cents off earnings vs. my earlier estimate.
So, now estimating 44 cents high range, 36 cents if write-off on Schmale 34-20.