You are correct about one item. The Queen patents will expire at least a year before solanezumab could get approved. However, that has not stopped all the early stage bio stocks from having rising stock prices.
Today's Wall St. Journal has a big article on solanezumab saying the sales volume could be 3 billion $ if it gets approved. PDLI would be collecting royalties on all this for 11 years so our stock goes down but Lilly is flying high.
The Lilly presentation is all over the TV but nobody connects it to PDLI.
If nobody was willing to sell then the share price would have gone sky high.
Because of the high dividend a lot of investors bought this stock on margin because it looks like a free way to own more stock. Now they are getting margin calls.
Last fall while the stock was dropping I was on the phone with a broker and he mentioned that due to the high yield some investors who owned the stock on margin and they were now getting margin calls which then resulted in the stock being sold off to meet then. My other point is that this company is very well hedged in 2015 and reasonably well hedged in the early part of 2016.
Did you se the after hours action ? A gigantic drop followed by a big uptick. Who sold and who bought ? That is the question. Also, the volume during regular trading hours was very large.
This stock is very cheap relative to the amount of assets. My pick for a takeout is Total. Total and CHK have a joint drilling program in Ohio and CHK must complete all the drilling within a certain amount of time. Total is paying for half of the drilling costs which is probably why CHK has not reduced the number of rigs as much as some other companies . Shell, BP and COP are also buyers.
Update- Check the LLY yahoo web site - big move up n the stock price due to Solanezumab. A paper will be presented at the July 18-23 Alzheimers Assn. meeting. Stories about Solanezumab were on CNBC and the nightly business report today. Nobody seems to know there is any connection between this drug and PDLI.